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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/20/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -

OMG today was ACTIVE!
My SPX $5500 & NVDA 138 PT from last week were tagged!

Rithika’s AMD call at open for a run from 156 to 166 WORKED GREAT.

Alexander's recently added/written up NRIX is up > 12% today.

My new fascination with GILD last week (news of GLP-1 weight loss compounding drug / think HIMS) really took off at open today: 65 hit 68 1st PT. I still like the AUG financed call spread rec'd for a dime/scratch: 62.50P sold against 67.50x75CS is now worth $1.75.

Profit taking in full view - for reasons discussed - AAPL, MU, CMG, NVDA, QCOM - lots of scalping short on expected PROFIT TAKING into quad witching!

QQQ gorgeous short < 485.90 trigger. Really needs to break 479 to have any chance to pull down to 472 - which WAS MY 2024 PT. If we get more bullish flows after OpEx, I still can see $504 QQQ before leg is done.

DELL, SMCI, ORCL gorgeous continuation chases into resistance levels

SPX Green with VIX Green is always a warning for incoming digestion.
SVXY below 61 is market chop; below is bullish market.

Sadly, I don't trust the precious metal bounce: GLD, SLV, GDX as explained in my Intermarket Review.
Bitcoin still looks soggy/weak. I can easily see $60K then let's see.

And yes, I still expect NVDA resistance of $140.75 intraday to act as area for short-term digestion down 10% to $130 - maybe Fri but next week is safer.

NKE is trying to get above 92 wkly support.
IBM is trying to get above 175 resistance.

IP Swing Long nice consolidation past month at 45 now pushing into 47, next 48.50.
MMM Swing long nice consolidation above 10W near 101 for more than a month looking boring but good.
WMB still boring but profitable Swing Long

Lots of XLE + XME related bounces at 50W: XOM, STLD, CMC,

LLY Trend trade since $200 hit $900 today. Wish I also had NVO!

BABA still falling into 72.81 daily gap fill before 70.53 wkly support - where it is worth buying again as LRE (low risk entry).
KWEB still falling into 10W at 27.84

Trend Long Considerations:
AZO > 3004 WKLY CLOSE
ORLY already trend long for many moons + doing awesome.
IBKR long still working well
ISRG long still working well
BKNG long since EPS still working well and NOW ATH > 3918 WKLY CLOSE

TSLA Swing Long hasn't moved, yet - TOTW long into EPS
PLTR Swing Long has worked well > 24 now needs to stay > 25.20 WKLY CLOSE
ABBV looks great swing long > 170 WKLY CLOSE
UBER digesting well > 69.30 DAILY CLOSE

Macro
USDJPY still working higher into 160 "wall"
TLT still working higher as 10Y yield digests 4.2%

BEWARE THE PROFIT TAKING IN SEMIS AS MY GROWTH-TO-VALUE IS STARTING TO ROLLOVER NOW

FROM RITHIKA:
AAPL getting chased down to 210
NVDA 130 put lottos for next week below 141, needs below 137 for 130 (above 141 we have 144.9)
AMD potential to 166/167 if 164 holds above then digestion then 175
PENN $20 and $30 calls coming in
CHWY 25.4 overshooting into 27
SMCI 1020 two levels of resistance careful there
ADSK holds over 244 for 250,260 next
PLTR pushing towards 27 target


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

MAG7 - Sideways since FOMC - still in that Wednesdays candle. Still at weekly highs; still bullish. 130 PT

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - tested 275 again & kept it but still under 288. Would need to get back above 300 to see a bearish impact to the SPX & indexes.

IWF:IWD - Still in YTD highs; looks like it is trying to breakout into new highs on the week. Still bullish; Extended but not showing any weakness yet. Still hot.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - still under the TL.

T2104 - not enough buying to get excited.

T2123 - Rolling over.

T2126 - Still sideways. Digesting. Equal Weight NASDAQ falling... Semi's are not.

WTI CRUDE - daily breakout; above 80 on weekly. Expecting a surprise downside move (just not right now).

GOLD (futures) - attempted a breakout daily & stalled against resistance; still up slightly this morning.

Nat Gas - still under 3.00$ but now more firmly in this channel it has developed

Bit Coin - proxies are up this morning. Getting stabilized.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - "scoop" formation - 105.80 resistance holding. Channel surfing. Maybe H&S pattern daily.

USDJPY - the 152 wall broke & it's still moving higher... new line in sand is 160.00$. Watching for action to tap it down around that 160 area.

USDCNH - still bid.

BONDS

TLT - Still expecting bonds to get / be bid. digesting.

TNX - think 4.2 breaks & we get into 4.1% this summer.

ZN (10Y) - digesting here

ZT (2Y) - digesting here.

10/2 spread - still expecting a gap fill... making lower lows on reflexive bounce. Think the inversion will be sharper on the downside drop if the TNX breaks that 4.2 & gets into 4.1%.

INDEX

SPX - XLK, NASDAQ is bidding up SPY. not bearish until under 5340

IWM - buy Small Caps when they are close to the last rate cut... (not the first cut). Above 212 is trigger long.

QQQ - not bearish until under 472. Keep it below 486 for a move into 484; could overshoot into 479

VIX - no energy

SVXY - got nothing yet.

CHASE

AAPL getting chased down to 210

AMD needs above 157 for 160, 163 stop: 155. AMD potential to 166/167 if 164 holds above then digestion then 175

CHWY - 25.4 overshooting into 27 on chwy

DXY, yields up putting a little pressure pre market

MU potential profit taking

NVDA target met now if it stays below 140.7 can see profit taking. NVDA 130 put lottos for next week below 141, needs below 137 for 130

PENN $20 and $30 calls coming in

SMCI needs to hold 952 for 994, can gapfill 927 before 994 if 952 does not hold. SMCI $1020 two levels of resistance careful there

TREND

LLY - very bullish;

HONORABLE MENTIONS

The "gold & silver" spike - needs caution... could see more pullback in gold, silver & miners.

AAPL - digesting. Chase is on for 210.

ADSK - get & stay above 200

ACN - earnings popped into & through the 55-day MA. Needs to get / stay above 305 to have any interest.

AMD - "it's trying" - this is a chase. Getting excited. Get above 160 & stay above it for a cont move higher. Get above 186 now to cont

ARM - 164 likely where it digests. Bearish Harami.

AMZN - get above 188.

BKNG - weekly breakout; 3918 is the level to hold above.

CHWY - could see the 100-week; Make hay...

CADL - broke the 10W

CMG - profit taking. 3260 weekly is the level to get under.

DKNG - reversal off the 50-week;

DELL- 150.84 weekly breakout. 154.59 daily support.

DRI - trying to get above the 200day - nice bounce.

FOSL - hitting 50-week; still going higher. Should calm down at that 50-week.

GLD - fine "big picture".

GOOGL - digesting.

GILD - hitting 55-day MA. Getting into GLP-1 space. Trying to move higher.

HON - bullish.

ISRG - cont higher. awesome.

IP - stayed above support; nice breakout weekly. digesting.

IBM - stay above 175. looks good

IBKR - came back into the 10W.

JBL - needs to get / stay above 124.

KR - 50-week bounce & news last week.

MU - 157.50 daily resistance. Came back in.

MGM - running.

NKE - 95.50 weekly is the level to get above

NVDA - 138 PT has been hit. Keep it below 141 ... for a short term short into 130... so maybe 130 puts ...

PBR - popping hourly. has work to do.

PDD - looks bearish. Break 140.

PENN- doing better. MLCO ... nothing in casinos...

ORCL - breakout weekly - stunning. Bullish expansion candle weekly.142.40 is the level...bullish above / bearish below.

QCOM - outstanding; could go sideways here. 217.68 is new support level. Nice cont. Profit taking now on que... keep it below 223

SLV - fine "big picture".

SMCI - 927 weekly taken out. Above it now. Could break 952 & fills 927 again. Close above 972 weekly to take it higher. $1,000 is the target & then 1020 is two levels of resistance & todays PT.

STLD - popped from the 50week. Popped from the 200-day MA. $CMC popped today.

WMB - congrats. 42 weekly breakout

UBER - stay above 124.

XLE - bouncing off the 200-day ... has work to do. Still in a downtrend.

ZS - 200-day & tag your it.

NVDA impacting ...

AMD, SMCI, DELL,


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.