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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 4/02/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

THAT'S why Samantha rec'd QQQ $440P ;-)
AND SLV wicked long ;-)
SLV + 3% with continued strength in VALUE over Growth.
Energy leading with TLT selling off: 91.32 support BUT Samantha still sees the 2Y filling daily gap before a more solid bounce can occur in bonds
Yields above 4.35% putting heavy pressure on the market with a strong dollar
VIX above 13.85 pushed to 15, now 15.21 is the pivot above is market bearish below we bounce
GLD 209 PT and eventually 216 in time, similarly SLV also headed to 23.85 then 25
BTCUSD below 69K rolled over to 65K next is 62K
SVXY 110 level is important for further decisiveness in market direction
SPY 21 day at 515.80NVDA below 882 next 860
AAPL little bounce at 167.50 then 165
MSFT coming down into 417.35
SMCI below 994 we have 950,927
KHC above 37.33 for 38.20
XLE holding above 95 breakout level must hold above for 100
AA needs to get above 35/36 to have a more explosive move; lot of moving averages here
XOM still has lot of calls coming in, structure still bullish
Health insurers UNH,HUM selling off on news
NOT a serious sell-off until SPX can register a -2% pullback and SVXY gets/stays below 108.85 wkly support. The warning for a VIX spike worked WELL!! But the buy-the-dip is still in play until it isn't. Getting closer...


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

APR 2, 2024 AM

Lot's of fed speakers this week. (4) fed speakers today.

MAG7 - gapped down premarket & now under the 10-day MA (still above the 20-day MA).

IWF:IWD - Under the 10, 20 & the 50-day MA.

Intermarket

T2104 - net selling - minor. Not "serious" yet. Bleeding lower slowly.

T2123 - small ... minor breakdown.

T2126 - nice rejection weekly.

WTI Crude - testing 85 this morning. Un-nerving.

GOLD (futures) - above 2250 w/ a high of 2266 this morning... this is the "release value." Has been great - yes. Anything above 2150 is fire.

Nat Gas - rejected near 1.94 / 1.95 area.. still nothing here.

Bit Coin - back below 70k and testing 65k this morning. (proxies are also down this morning). Bit Coin - called the roll-over yesterday. working well - proxies also rolling over. Congrats if you took that - said it was going to fall. Knew it was weak. 65k is a good start - 625k is next - then 55k after that

FX

Dollar (DXY) - got into that 105 yesterday and didn't give much back. Still weak against commodities. Came in (lower) and that is helping to support the market.

USDJPY - still tightly compressed right under 152 daily. Chopping here on hold ... for something.

EURJPY - Off the 165.35 highs (daily) but still holding above that 160 low pivot & this is our channel.

EURUSD - big wide channel weekly / daily - nothing here.

Bonds

TLT - big ol’ gap down below 92 this morning. It's a LOT. Look for a possible over-sold cover... 91.32 & we'll see.

TNX - big ol' breakout higher this moring; testing 4.394%.

HYG - wow. Broke 77 weekly. Broke the 21-week.

ZN (10Y) - testing 109-1/2 daily.

ZT (2Y) - testing 102 daily and it's looks like failure soon; still focused on the gap close lower.

10/2 spread - moving back towards zero is "fed cutting" and moving closer to -0.60% is "fed not cutting."

Index

SPX - 5200 tagged. 5189 holding - came back above it.

SPY 21 day 515.80

IWM - Getting hit on higher yields - expect this to stay under pressure with the yield moves. Oversold.

BXM - dropped. The Buy / Write index paused after that drop (at 10:00am).

QQQ - 434 still in focus. First PT hit (440). looks like it is on TL support... 10-week in focus.

VVIX - weekly BB bounce; forming a BB squeeze.

VIX - getting above 15 weekly would not surprise; getting above the daily 200-day MA also - would not surprise. Looking at the 50-week as a possible PT. 15.21 hourly resistance. Recommended at 12.45. Likely overshoot intp 16.00$. Below 15.21 is a market bounce - above 15.21 offers more market weakness.

SVXY - needs to get & stay below 108.77 weekly. Keep rolling over below that to see a "two way" market. SVXY triggered the 113 level into 110 needs below 110 to roll down further. SVXY - broke down; careful of a snap-back.

Chase

AAPL little bounce at 167.50 then 165

BITCOIN heading to first target at 65K next is 62,60K

KHC above 37.33 for 38.20

NVDA below 882 next 860

QQQ - Sam's suggestion of QQQ puts worked well, needs below 440 for 434

SMCI below 994 we have 950,927

SLV heading to 23.84, 25.65 in time

SVXY triggered the 113 level into 110 needs below 110 to roll down further

VIX headed to 15,16 ish ... 15.21 pivot. above is market bearish, rejection market will bounce

XLE holding above 95 breakout level must hold above for 100

Honorable Mentions

GOLD / SILVER Ratio - looks soooo bullish. Precious Metals still the best looking.

AAPL - 165.70 short weekly PT.

AMD - soggy.

AA - great above 32.35 weekly. lots of junk over-head. Has a lot of resistance over-head.

ARM - 117.80 area.

ANF - still a great short. Working really well.

AAL - broke under 15.00 weekly. 50-week lower PT needs follow-through.

AG - silver minor - nice breakout above 6.00 weekly. Stay above 5.93 weekly.

AMZN - hanging in there.

$C - very extended. wait for pullback or protect if already long.

CROX - 146.89 weekly resistance.

CLSK - inside selling & at 10-week support

COIN - starting to break the 21-day. 1st time it bounces ... 2nd time it breaks.

EXAS news - but wasn't earnings.

FCX - copper still working.

GOOGL - still doing great. GOOGL - "fake break - fast fail" over the last 2 days.. still in trend.

GLD - 209 & then 216 PT ... could see a pullback to 203 first before running higher.

GDX - right into 32.30 & that still looks very fine.

HUM - nasty chart. has issues. (UNH also in a huge channel).

KRE - great cradle formation

KWEB - hitting the 200-day MA.

MRVL - get back above 75.38 weekly to cont higher.

MSFT - looks like it could come back into 417.35 ... continues to fade. 414.75 below that if it excelerates in the fall.

MSOS - still fine.

NVDA - 860 still in play.

PANW - pushing into 265.90 area.

PBF - (MPC too) looking great.

PYPL - down to the 21-day ... has not dumped.

PLTR - 21.50 weekly support (or next PT lower). broke the 55-day MA. pushing the daily bb bands lower.

SLV - taking off; called out Thursday & it is going gang-busters. Silver Mining space also lighting up. 25.00$ in time (weekly). 23.25 daily resistance. 23.84 weekly pt - then 25, then 25.65 will really matter... once we get back there.

SMCI - 927 weekly short PT then 881

SIGA - 9.82 weekly resistance. Extended. Looks very bullish. Nice "scoop" pattenr on daily.

TSLA - news came out - Gapped down & then has just "stuck here" on the lower BB

UNH - 460.50 weekly lower pT tagged. Should have a bounce.

VLO - crazy bullish; extended & breaking out higher.

VKTX - pull-back. Coming into the 21-day is expected as profit taking ... still don't see this as bearish.

XLE - 94.71 monthly resistance broke - very large "scoop" pattern. Don't short all time highs / don't buy all time lows.

XLF - risk of coming back in; 41.70 weekly is the level to get into.. an "all time high fail" if that happens.

XOM - right into PT long


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.