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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
FROM SAM -
Now THAT'S BEAUTIFUL DERISKING!!!
No way clients didn't make money chasing short my market calls today in my live trading room.
I was HIGH CONVICTION where we were going and the goin' was smooth not chaotic.
My write-up last week and rant yday morning was clear:
1. FORCED SELLING IS NOT DONE IN TECH
2. SAFETY PAYS: IWM, XLP, XLV, XLU, GDX
3. FED RATE CUTS ARE COMING - see Bullard OpEd in Bloomberg this am.
HIGHLIGHTED INTERMARKET TELLS:
I will do an update with all my intermarket analysis/charts for tomorrow, but for today I showed three that were critical to allowing me to help you navigate short tech with conviction this morning:1. STOCK-BOND-VOLATILITY - PREMARKET SAID NOT DONE. That is clearly correct.
2. YEN OVERSOLD JULY 10TH - YDAY SAID NOT DONE. That is clearly correct.
3. GROWTH-TO-VALUE RATION - ALL WEEK SAID NOT DONE. That is clearly correct.
And all 3 will be used to gauge a relief bounce, and as such, Pls note:
1. VIX has not made it to all my PTs given near open: 16.30, 17.36, 18.21, 18.70, 20.
2. Yen bounce via FXY made it to my 60.40 PT but it can still overshoot to 61.30 after wee digestion. With that USDJPY to 151.86 is strong support for a solid bounce.
3. We are back to NOV 2021 HIGH in my growth/value ratio. We could bounce here but I see 1.95 ratio as higher conviction.
STOCKS OF INTEREST
I was VERY specific that today was HIGH CONVICTION CHASE SHORT DAY given SPX opened BELOW its R3 (resistance level 3) on Hrly.
After ALREADY tagging my SPX 5505.53 PT last week, we opened at 5505.84 wherein I said this is what we will hit: 5571, 5560, 5447.25
If we take out 5447.25 we can get that -2% drawdown day.
After ALREADY tagging my QQQ 476.50 PT last week, we opened at 473.82 wherein I said this is what we will hit: 468, 465.74TSLA was also high conviction short from open at 225 to 217PT.
NVDA from 119 to 115 area/55D with SMCI + DELL into their 30W.
Also said, if SMCI + DELL break below their 30W, NVDA will fall further.
ASML, NXPI fab shorts
AMD gave swing short already from 184 to 174 to 164 then send below = 153.49, well today we opened right below so gave 147.62 as short PT.
NFLX spike higher into 650 I said was FAKE + would reverse.
AAPL, MSFT, META - gave levels of breakdown + PTs
ALL OF THESE WORKED/ARE WORKING - ALLLLLLL
So the easy money has been made shorting tech, so we could bounce a few days, but the bigger issue is this...
Macro Worry:
Fed/Treasure are WAY behind the curve and I contend COMPRESSING the credit spreads and SUPPRESSING the yield curve, which is an OUTLIER THAT WILL REVERT WITH VELOCITY in time.
Rithika chase summary notes:
SPX 5505 filled, next below we have 5460,5447
QQQ below 481 into 471, 468
VIX above 14.8 into 15.6, 16.5 to 17.54 and 18.70 likely stops vix bounce there
TSLA into 217.80 below 222 possible overshoot to 215,212
META down to 469 below that can see 451 if it breaks
AAPL below 220 can dump $10 into 216, 210
USDCAD attempting to breakout
LMT 498 tagged, now above 500 can see 515,520
PDD below 130 back to 120,115 stop: 140
AMZN below 183.5 comes down to 180.32
NFLX below 639 down to 621, 615 stop: 650 bounce doesn’t look trustworthy
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 24, 2024 AM
Could see some talk in the JULY FOMC about cutting later in the year. Sam said earlier this year - that she expected cut's sooner than others were anticipating. She said oil would be weak - tech would be weakened - and the yields would be lower - cheers if you played the trades to take advantage of it.
MAG7 - three DOJI days in a row - with the second & third one having a higher open (and close) around the 10/20-day MA combo ... but this morning we have gapped down to last weeks lows and are firmly below the 10 & 20-day MA's. Still above the 50-day MA - still above the 10-week MA.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - the move back above the 275 level was firmly rejected - we are back under 275 again.
IWF:IWD - the bounce continued yesterday into the 50-day MA & above it into the close ... only to fall in the premarket trading back below the 50-day MA. Sam had suggested we could bounce into resistance and then roll-over for a continued move lower (into the 1.95 area) and this seems to be the start of the next leg lower. It's likely that the "de-risking" is not done.
INTERMARKET
T2104 - a little bit of selling
T2123 - hanging out here - prior highs & has not rolled over yet. Doing well.
WTI CRUDE - popped higher from 77 daily support. Still lower than last weeks low.
GOLD (futures) - day two of the rally has price testing 2425 this morning. Still holding weekly highs and still in a strong range.
Nat Gas - the bounce rally was short lived - price now firmly back below 2.25 and we have broke below yesterday lows. Still inside last weeks range.
Bit Coin - After last weeks large green move - price is still above last weeks 50% mark but is below yesterdays 50% mark. Sideways while holding above 66k.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - big move away from 104.50 - near the 104 support area as we come into the RTH session. Last week we cut below 104 but was quickly brought back up. Has to get above 104.50. Above that is a very strong signal and would put more negative weight on the markets.
USDJPY - JGB-10Y holding above 1.05% and trying to rise this morning. USDJPY firmly under last weeks lows and pressing lower this morning. 30W may act as some support.
FXY - reflexive bounce played out as Sam suggested it would. Cheers if you took that. Could see 60.40 with an overshoot into the 50-week MA. Great reflexive TRADE - not "TREND REVERSAL" - a really great timed long call-out. 60.74 is next.
EURJPY - 30-week as PT
BONDS
TLT - moving higher but not in a scary way.
TNX - showing they are not going up.
2/10 curve - has not rolled over; it's alert.
INDEX
SPX - 5650 was the BIG BIG level. Powerful. SPX - 5446 area expected... selling has just started. Below S3 intraday at the open. SPX - 5471 & 5460 after that as weekly PT's ... 5460 is good support. 5447 is a level Sam really likes.
SPY - filled the gap.
IWM - not falling as much; "value shopping..."
QQQ - filled the gap. Created another gap - under the current price. we have a weak market. Resting on the 10-W and that is now what needs to be watched. QQQ - still looking for the TL tag (or the 55-day tag). QQQ - 468 PT in a hurry.
VIX - above 16.30, then 17 area then 18.70 as higher levels... with overshoot of 20.00$
BXM - 21-day MA broken. Looks like it wants to break weekly support. Breakdown confirmation. Has not taken out the prior high.
CHASE
AAPL below 220 can dump $10
AMZN below 183.5 comes down to 180.32
LMT 498 tagged, now above 500 can see 515,520
META down to 469 below that can see 451 if it breaks
NFLX below 639 down to 621, 615 stop: 650
PDD below 130 back to 120,115 stop: 140
QQQ pushing into 471, 468 | better resolution and levels on QQQ below 476 into 471,468.02
SPX 5505 filled, next below we have 5460,5550. SPX 5460 approaching then 5447
TSLA into 217.80 below 222 possible overshoot to 215,212 | TSLA if 217.5 breaks can push to the 10 week at 212
VIX above 14.8 into 15.6, 16.5 to 17.54 and 18.70 likely stops vix bounce there
HONORABLE MENTIONS
TECH is still in it's de-risking phase. "forced selling mode" since JULY 10th & it does not look done.
AMD - sitting here after big breakdown. CEO resigning. Breaking the 200-day. 147.62 is a lower PT support.
AMZN - clearly a breakdown of the TL & now in short mode. 180.32 likely breaks & we go further. Worried about a 10/21 weekly roll-over.
AAPL - could dump 10.00 and yet it would still be in trend. CRAZY ... like the short a LOT. (and NFLX and META) - needs to break 220.
ASML - 200-day as PT.
ARM - 55-day MA still in focus. (142 / 143 weekly short term PT ... because there is earnings soon & there is no edge in earnings).
ANF - short working
BSX - getting distribution; 74.39 area.
CVNA - digesting.
DKS - short working.
DELL - just starting to roll over.
PDD - nice short -
KWEB - nice short
BABA - not ready to go up
COST - looks weak; weekly bearish engulfing. next week likely falls over. 55-day MA short pt would be useful.
DELL - target is the 30-week PT.
ENPH - shake n bake. range trading still working.
GLD - digesting
GOOGL - more important than TSLA - an "AI sweetheart" ... 172.85 daily support could break. Shorts need to keep it below the 10W. Looking for the 21-week MA test.
HIMS - has not done too much wrong.
HCA - strong.
JOE - has earnings tomorrow - careful.
LLY - pathetic. No confidence. Looks weak.
META - like it short. Keep it below 485 weekly.
MSFT - looks heavy.
NFLX - like it short.
SLV - digesting. Trying to get back above 10W.
SMCI - has not broken 745.
TSLA - Under 226 hourly. Under monthly 237. Headed into 217 Key level for a weekly close. Back above 237 would be very bullish. 217.80 is also strong support. 217.80 is short PT if you are chasing it. Could overshoot into 212.50 (10-W). Could see 200.00.
UNH - Strong.
UPS - clear smack-down.
$V - below the 200-day ... trouble. not a surprise that it's nasty. Solid breakdown of the 200-day MA. Now starting "oh - nice one" - starting to flatten out the 200-day MA.
Bullish Charts
AEM, EBS, APO, BRO, FI, GVA, KKR, THC, SF, STX, CHKP, ICE, MMM, PCT, SAP (earnings)
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