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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
FROM SAM -
Nice continuation short in NVDA from $138 wkly trend long PT and perfectly positioned LRE short at $140.75 gap high Thursday morning. We tagged $130 with ease Thursday then filled 126.88 daily gap fill Friday with close < both 3+8D EMA, setting up nice continuation short into 21D near 121.05 hrly gap fill. HIT. Now I would expect wee digestion before continuing lower into 116.53 H gap fill and 115.82 W support. Once that breaks, we have 10W near $110.38 Hrly gap fill support.
NVDA was clearly on its own planet running higher and now lower, as semis take a pause and equal-weight nasdaq plays - with value - pop up. THIS is called ROTATION, as predicted, from my GROWTH:VALUE roll-over call last Thursday. With that keep in mind:
IN LIEU OF ROTATION, THERE WILL BE VOLATILITY.
But I do not see VIX getting/staying > 13.84 on Hrly today, let alone 14.49 this week.
If it does, SVXY needs to get/stay < 59 W support at 10W. And BXM is still too green, which loosely translated means: ROTATION NOT VOLATILITY for now.
DIA over IWM but defensives still look good in XLV, XLP as all things "AI TECH ECOSYSTEM" soften/weaken with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin dump on queue as liquidity is weak this week - helping COIN short into 212 at 100D - with other proxies.
MU earnings this Wed after it already traded short perfectly from 157.54 LRE short to 21D at 135.85.
QCOM already called/triggered short < 222.7 Daily now gapping down < 21D.
TSM also gapping down < 172.21 W support, now resistance.
ANET looks ready to break 329 D/W support on way to 10W near 307.
AMAT had BIG insider selling with BIG insider selling on NVDA so staying < 238.40 W.QQQ lotto trade this week for Friday: Staying < 479 brings 466 with overshoot to 460 area.
AMZN as TOTW means ADD TIME because it will be VERY hard for AMZN to shoot higher to/above 191.70 into ATH (209 in time) with Nasdaq weakness.
PANW triggered then reversed - needs to stay > 118 on W
META is shy to BO and needs 510 W to trigger.
SPX needs to break 5488 to see 5447 and break there to see lower into 5400.I'm still swing bullish bonds but this week should see more chop than drop in 10Y.
GDP Q1 2024 and Jobless Claims due Thursday morning.
CORE PCE Friday morning.
Both should be USD & 10Y yield moving.
Big test of 106.20 W resistance for USD + 4.2% W support for 10Y yield.
Place Your Bets!TSLA 189 approaching next is 191, 195,199 hold above 184
PANW above 318 for 333, 350
SHOP needs above 67.34 to impress
GILD needs to digest above 70.57 for 72.83,74
MRK - part of XLV - looks very bullish on trigger > 133 W
TDOC - oversold, left for dead, bouncing off 9.55 into 21D looks bullish into 11.50 assuming 10.28 holds
GILD - sweet idea from last week is holding well!
NKE - has earnings 6/27 and has been making higher lows on W since April. No edge, but could see 50W ~ 101 on positive print/reaction.
oh, and I still like UBER >69.30 D support to revisit 73 then get above to potentially make new ATH
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JUNE 24, 2024 AM
MAG7 - sideways for more than a week; still holding above the 10-day. "correcting in time" (not correcting in price)... Still bullish weekly; chopping sideways.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - 275 still appears to be the magic number; 280 is a minor resistance that continues to hold. 288 is a "close above" level for a continued weak market while breaking 275 offers a bullish market backdrop.
IWF:IWD - continues to soften; still above the 10-day and on weekly still bullish.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - green
T2104 - slight buying this morning.
T2123 - little breadth bounce; oversold is still bearish. breadth having a little bounce intraday
T2126 - green
WTI CRUDE - still bullish above 81 daily. choppy range is getting wider.
GOLD (futures) - still a threat. Be careful of this coming back in. All we need is a DXY pop for this to drop.
Bit Coin - broke 65k and is dropping nicely. Coming into 60k and still see 57.5k as PT. Proxies are rolling over as a result. (COIN,
FX
Dollar (DXY) - Staying below 106.20$ ... Above that & we are going higher. 104 is the lower edge of the channel.
USDJPY - hitting TL resistance daily. still bullish weekly.
BONDS
TLT - short term still bullish. holding quite well.
ZN (10Y) - gap lower will fill eventually.
ZT (2Y) - gap lower will fill eventually.
10/2 spread - looks like it is coming into the reversion.
INDEX
NYSE - 18,000 daily resistance held in that pop up into resistance; continues to provide LH & LL daily ... on WEEKLY chart we still have HH and HL's ...
SPX - 5505.53 is in the books (set on Thursday) and we chopped inside of Thursday's range on Friday... 5463 & then 5447 hourly are two levels of interest.
SPY - Markets need a reason. Watch the VIX as a tell (above 14.50)
DIA - likely plays "catch-up" to rest of the market.
IWM - getting a bid.
QQQ - Markets need a reason. Stay below 479 for a move into 465.74 w/ an overshoot into 460 (this is a "lottery" call-out).
VIX - see some volatility. Break above 14.50 for excitement. Above 13.84 - then stick the landing for a move into 14.50.
SVXY - Starting soggy; rollover has started but has not triggered. Get below 59 weekly a/ vix above 14.50 for the QQQ lotto to work.
CHASE
AMZN following through next is 191.70
GILD needs to push above 70.57 for 72.83,74
META needs above 504 to push. META needs above 507 now for 515 (must stay above 504)
MRK needs > 133 to trigger higher
NVDA 123 approaching then 121. NVDA 121 giving sway if that breaks next is 116.5. (but careful; there usually is an oversold bounce)
PANW above 318 for 333, 350
SHOP needs above 67.34 to impress
TSLA above 184.59 next is 186,189,191. TSLA 189 approaching next is 191, 195,199 (stay above 184.5)
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AAPL - META partnership in AI...?
ANET - 329 daily support; 332 weekly support. Stay under that old weekly support & break that 329 daily support.
AMAT - Stay below 238.40 for a short.
AMZN - the most watched MAG7 name. Barely closed above 188.11 weekly. Has a lot of buzz. Looks good. Like it. 190 & 195 & 210 JULY calls getting flows.
ARM - looks soft; like it wants to go lower.
CVNA - above 115 weekly offer 132 weekly.
COIN - bit coin proxies are rolling over after BTC broke 65k. Has not triggered a trend reversal short play yet. Needs to break 212 daily. Stay under 231 weekly.
COH - keep it below 70.33 weekly
CARR - weird bullish stuff. Bullish chart & bullish options flow.
$F - rotation off the bottom.
GLD - still a threat. Be careful of this coming back in. All we need is a DXY pop for this to drop.
GILD - 71.39 weekly level - sitting above 70.50 support. Like it.
GOOGL - calls coming in. It's getting chased.
HON - doing well; slow mover but it IS moving correctly.
HD - above 354 is a benefit.
HSY - rotation off the bottom; (See $F too).
IBM - cont to the 200-day.
META - 507 is key for a play into 510.
MU - earnings on deck.
NVDA - taking a pause. gap fill 121; 123 & then 121.05 is next. Opened below the close of last week; keep it below 125.50 / 126 area for a cont short. 121.05 HAS TO HIT.
NVS - sideways chop for 2 yrs... needs to get / stay above.
PANW - looks very good - 318 weekly breakout. Stay above that breakout for a cont move higher.
QCOM - nice.
SLV - Still a threat. Be careful of this coming back in.
SHOP - has to get above 67.36 weekly for a cont move higher.
TSLA - has not triggered. 186 key.
TSM - left a gap above; weekly 172 and above is bullish... below is not.
TGT - trying; get above 150.00$ for a bottom fishing play.
TDOC - super funny that it is getting a bounce. Just tagged 9.55 support level.
XLF - wobble. Failed their bank stress tests. Still see weakness in banks.
XLE - bounced on the lower TL.
XBI - looking better. 94.30 weekly resistance. Trigger above that.
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/24/24