Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 1/21/25
With #LTR Notes - by Samantha, Rithika and Mikey
Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 1/21/25
SO MUCH WINNING! Ok, that’s a Trump line, but as it relates to markets… lots of bullish bent since the Mon Jan 13th gap fill bounce with continuation post Inauguration - from bonds to equities, semis to small-caps. Breadth is nicely repairing and net buying is clearly in the house as is strength in options market. And why not: US dollar and yields are softening with oil falling back as Trump takes office promising economic prosperity while strategically not talking tariffs.
REMINDER: Macro-To-Macro OPTIONS Power Hour Wed at 4pm. Register here.
SPY 603 / SPX 6053 was the upside play. We are there. Now be careful about CHINA TARIFF HEADLINE RISK.
USD is sitting on 108 support with 10Y still softening into 4.49% PT before bond bulls are tested. USDJPY & USDCNH retreating; EURUSD & GBPUSD advancing. Doesn’t look done.
I summarized the Executive Orders Trump pre-market along with FX plays; the impact of US Govt job freeze on unemployment rate; and the foreboding tariff talk on Mexico/Canada (don’t worry) as well as China (worry).
Trade Updates -
TLT bull risk reversal at a nickel is now up 6200% and this is where I suggested taking at least 50% off as it digests 87.90 PT. But as the 10Y2Y flattens, we still have room for bonds to move higher (specifically the 10W ~88.80 with overshoot to 21D at 89.54). Then take care. I expect the bear steepening to return next month.
GLD followed through from the set-up I spiked 3 wks ago - with rec’d rotation with XME & select miners. Working still, select miners AEM, AGI, WPM.
MMM was a phenomenal idea re-introduced by Alex early last week as I sized up for those still long since April last year. It was a beautiful earnings breakout this morning from Mo/Wk levels needing to stay > 127 Mo with 141.50 breakout, now pushing 150. That financed call spread idea did well - selling 120P against 140/150 CS. But remember to protect now on retest to 141.50.
IP is another bottom-fishing play from May last year that continues to push into 60. Earnings Jan 30th. Needs to close > 50 to stay firmly in trend.
AAPL short from 258!!! is still working into 217 at 50W/200D where I would expect it not only gets defended but is a long into earnings JAN 30th.
WAIT, THERE’S MORE…