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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
Market is tired!! We are in serious chop mode with AI Tech still leading and all else lagging.
XLF was high conviction rollover candidate yday. It rolled.
The spike higher in USD but especially 10Y just undid TWO WEEKS of a bear flattener.
As a result of higher yields, NYSE in particular, with interest-rate-sensitive stocks taking it on the chin.
Right now, JGB 10Y is spiking higher with US 10Y and that is a carry trade unwind risk.
My US30Y - JP30Y indicator started to diverge lower yday while market looked bid with NVDA up 7%, but today the true colors shown through: we gapped down and VIX spiked into 14.SPY gap fill incoming at 523.83 / SPX below 5264.85 likely brings 5240 quickly.
VIX right into the 21 week and trendline like SPX against support, crucial juncture for the market or else we bounce higher in the markets if VIX cannot push
Keep an eye on SVXY it is red but on support
Some weakness still present in the advance decline
NYSE breadth advance turned last Thursday. It is dropping faster now.
NYSE net volume shows more selling so hard for market to move higher with weakness under the surface.10Y into 4.616 target has tagged. Watching for rejection here; otherwise, getting/staying back above 4.688 on wkly is BIG risk off.
CHWY - strongest chase long into 22
CRM - no edge with earnings after close, but looks poor: 262 wouldn't surprise
MSFT pushes above 430 we can see 433, 435, 438
AAPL push above 192 into 193.67
NFLX above 659, 665 next resistance
AA pushing into 44.68 target
AMD ranging between 174 and 164, these are pivots for upside and downside volatility
NVDA 1118 is resistance fib level, gapfill at 1065
C 61.67 is important a open below next week leads to more weakness
COST earnings 5/30 with DELL. No edge. Already closed COST last week + 326% on JUN $800C.XLE still weak with refiners.
JETS rolled over as expected.
XLP, XLV rolled over harder than expected.
ANF is still up more than NVDA + BTC combined - waiting still for a turn.
No reason to short ATHs any more than to buy ATLs. Wait for a turn.
Michael's Trading Room Summary
MAY 29, 2024 AM
MAG7 - Blue Skys again this week (yesterday) but faded overnight - premarket we are lower than the close but still inside day. Very bullish weekly.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - closer to 300- Sam still see's 280 this summer.
IWF:IWD - Breakout above 2024 highs set back in FEB. Blue Skys this morning.
INTERMARKET
T2104 - contracting; they are selling more than they are buying. still some selling under the surface still
T2123 - gapped down; that's a hit. Short term reversal - looking for follow-through.
T2126 - weakness into the 10W.
WTI CRUDE - Breakout above 80.00$. Above the 10, 20 & 50MA's daily. OIL POP.
GOLD (futures) - broke 2350 daily; under the 10 & 20-day MA's.
Nat Gas - 3.00$ resistance held; testing the 10MA this morning. Still above the 20, 50, & 200 daily MA's.
Bit Coin - testing 67k again today (did that yesterday too - but lifted back above it).
FX
Dollar (DXY) - still under 105 daily; Under the 50, 20 & 10 MA's. Still above the 200-day after testing it last week. Continues to set clear LH and LL's daily. Still looking for a bounce into the underside TL. Still in bounce mode. DXY - 105 PT & then we'll see.
USDJPY - Breakout above 157; day 4 green so far. Nice clear rise above the 10, 20, & 50-day MA's which are spread out nicely pointing higher. JGB -10Y solid move above 1.00% and hit 1.08% this morning. The Large Gap daily is concerning. Still an intervention threat.
BONDS
TLT - Large gap lower this morning - now under 90.00 daily. Under all the MA's on daily too - the 200, 50, 20, 10 day.
TNX - gapped up above 4.5%. Above the 10, 20, & 50-day MA's. Pushing above daily levels... 4.66% is PT. Not bullish until we get above 4.688% but Sam does not expect that this summer. Still looking for a bounce into the underside TL. Still in bounce mode.
ZN (10Y) - still fading lower; Under the MA's on the daily (all of them). Back to where we started in May.
ZT (2Y) - still fading lower; Under the MA's on the daily (all of them).
10/2 spread - Still looking for -0.60%. Re-tested the lower edge of the wedge from below. Massive Reversal into resistance.
INDEX
NYSE - After setting new 2024 year highs - we've pulled back & fell under the 10 & 20-day MA's. Still above the 50-day MA.
SPX - 5292 support is no longer there to support us (should open below that this morning. 5264 needs to break to cont lower.
SPY - moving lower. 523.83 gap fill as lower PT.
IWM - Gapped down & broke outside of last weeks lows - and came back in. Testing the 10-week MA.
QQQ - does not like the higher yields right now. Back to 455;
VIX - little bounce; will see how it does. Hitting the 21-week. Gapped above the 55-day MA.
VVIX - needs to get above 88. Coiling - but has not made the move.
BXM - selling calls.
SVXY - Closed Red yesterday; gapped down. Stay below 59 weekly. Evening Star Reversal weekly; need more "red" - sitting on weekly monthly support.
CHASE
AA pushing into 44.68 target
AAPL push above 192 into 193.67
AMD ranging between 174 and 164, these are pivots for upside and downside volatility
$C 61.67 is important a open below next week leads to more weakness
CHWY shorts in here, above 20.20 into 21.6,22 but likely pulls back after
DXY still under 105 and important moving averages, so careful of a shake and bake
MSFT pushes above 430 we can see 433, 435, 438
NVDA 1118 is resistance fib level, gapfill at 1065
NFLX above 659, 665 next resistance
SPX 5292 is no longer support, we are opening below that support level this morning, careful weakness has a gap at 5271. SPX came down to fill gap and bouncing off 5264 support, and digesting if you want to be short thats the level we must break for volatility
SPY gapfill at 523.83
VIX right into the 21 week and trendline like SPX against support, crucial juncture for the market or else we bounce higher in the markets if VIX cannot push
XLF breakdown below trendline, below 41.25 it continues down into 40.25,39.45
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Financial Space is weak; (C, GS, WFC, JPM, KRE, XLF). KWEB came back down (BABA, BIDU, JD, PDD). Miners are digesting but fine.
AMD - faded back from 74 and now nearly at 64 again. 164.50 weekly support. Breaking that "we have weakness" - but if it holds above then "bullish"
ANF - All Time Highs - Blue Sky's. Great "scoop" pattern weekly w/ follow through.
AAP - broke lower. Sam warned. Tanking into the breakout point.
AAL - below the weekly Keltner.
$C - digesting. broke back into weekly Keltner channel from above.
CRM - after the close - earnings. No edge. Looks like it wants to roll over.
CHWY - gapped higher - above the 200-day MA. Will take a LONG TIME before the 200-day turns higher. Expect it to fall again. 21.20 PT then 22.29
COP - M&A talks with MRO.
CAVA - bearish engulfing weekly; careful on that.
DKS - trend has not broken. 224.72 weekly resistance.
DAL - broke back into the weekly Keltner.
ENPH - short the rip; 132 daily resistance. Could see 140 even - with a push ... but that 200-day MA slopping lower is the issue. This will take a LONG TIME to turn that 200-day MA higher. Stay above 128 - move into 140 & then we'll see.
GS - starting to soften.
GLW - 36.00$ weekly resistance.
JPM - broke back into weekly Keltner channel from above.
LUV - still really weak.
KRE - headed lower
MSTR - broke 52.00$.
MMM - above 92.50 monthly. Digesting 101 area. Above the 10-week & the 100-week.
MRO - strongly above the 55 & 200-day MA. 29.56 weekly is the level to get / stay above. News of M&A with COP.
NVDA - 1117.71 weekly fib resistance. Above that on the hourly but started to fade; breaking that on the hourly now. 1098 then 1064 short PT's.
ORLY - Broke under the 200-day MA. Testing 950 hourly support. Not safe until the 200-day MA starts to rise.
PDD - having a hard time selling off.
SMH - weak. has not come back to the MAR highs.
WFC - broke back into weekly Keltner channel from above.
WSM - It's done. Broke under the 55-day MA. You don't recover from that.
XLF - start of a rotation out of banks; Rolled over. Under the 55-day MA. Still looks weak.
XLU - above 70 "good" (below 70.00$ "not good")
XLV - "tanked" below the 10-week. Broke the 55-day. Looking to see them find support.
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 5/29/24