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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/10/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
Craig and I did our bi-weekly EDGE Roundup webinar after market close Tuesday - posted in Member Dashboard. We agree earnings expectations are quite elevated (17-20% for 2025) despite 6 quarters of sideways...

We also talked about AI TECH getting talked down by Barclays, Sequoia, Goldman + Citibank in recent days - trying to ring the bell, but no one has heard it yet. We see no selling yet, and yet, I showed my MOST BEARISH CHART which is not a timing tool but a STRONG INDICATOR that on the next air pocket of risk, we could very well have a much stronger correction than is currently expected (of a mere 10%). Long story short, as I have written/discussed often: until we break above 4.2% unemployment rate and below 4.2% 10Y yield, this market is hell bent on higher as indicated by my MAG7 ratio that is not yet at price target.

With earnings kicking off with banks Friday morning, I suspect we continue to grind sideways - with overshoot in QQQ to $504/507 - until mid August. That would be after Yellen's QRA, bulk of earnings, VIX expiration mid-Aug and seasonal weakness into Q3 end Sept 30th. PUTS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME ARE BID as of Friday the 5th - as in YUGE size: $220M in premium for put spreads all the way down to $4300. READ: right where NOV 1st Fed Pause & Yellen Yahtzee kicked in!

In the meantime, CPI Thurs + PPI Fri won't change my opinion that we are in a deflation impulse + Fed will cut by Sept at least. Election risk is YUGE as well with DNC conference in Aug and GOP in Sept. Makes sense to hedge into all of this as #RFK is still trending strongly, so don't rule him out, in which case, everything will change.
Trade Ideas:
TSLA into $265 was high conviction past few days. It has now been up 11 out of 11 days. AND is still massively bid with calls and OTM calls at that.SEMIs are still bid and breaking ATH!
ASML breaking > 1077 ATH.
LRCX got above key 1007 wkly resistance and is not pushing into ATH above 1102 wkly support!
AVGO has done nothing wrong since clearing wkly resistance at 1438 now pushing > 1747.
AMAT same same: broke above wkly resistance of 215 and today is making new AT above 249.42 wkly support!
ADI is another personal fave since it broke above wkly resistance at 202.77 and ran higher into 241.88, digested, and is looking very good holding its 10W at 224 with 231.50 nice LRE wkly support.
NVDA had massively bullish NOV risk reversals entered yday for $2+ by selling $120P + buying $145C.
THIS IS THE MARKET WE ARE IN SO MAKE HAY WHILE THE SUN SHINES!!
AMD was rec'd Rithika chase. I liked on trigger of 164 to 174; 174 to 184. Digesting now, but bullish above.
MU holding $130 is bullish
MRVL holding 174 is bullish.
Stalking some potential bottom fishing plays in potential HF factor rotation to come: LCID, SEDG, etc but not with any high conviction, yet.
CVNA back to monthly 134.68 PT
RIVN back to 16.50 wkly PT - remember, 17% is owned by AMZN + Volkwagon invested $5B recently.
AEHR was the Chase of the day given it pre-announced earnings last night and ran from open into 16.05 PT before I suggested profit taking/digestion, and yet, with 21.5% short interest and a gorgeous cradle formation on wkly chart, this could be a very nice swing long on trend reversal pattern.
Trend Long breakouts recently rec'd:
ICE > 138.46 wkly trigger now 144
RACE > 430 on gap up would be very nice continuation.
VRTX > 486Recently rec'd restaurant shorts all hit initial PTs: CMG, DPZ, WING.
I updated WING short PT at 379.
NOW rec'd short near open Mon has reached 1st PT of 737. Next break = 696 in time.
We reviewed A LOT of bio plays. My faves:
VKTX scoop pattern long > 51.60 wkly support needing 60.30 then 70 to hold.
VRNA looks like early RNA on way to 18.47 from its 200D.
TGTX > 18.39 wkly support has MAJOR HEDGE FUND sponsorship + Alex likes the science/space!!
PROTECTION TIME?
SEPT $530 PUTS for $3 are the largest contract. Just sayin'

Rithika chase summary notes:
NVDA 135 tagged above 128 pivot can continue higher
AMD pushed into 184 overshot to 187 and warned as resistance there
TSLA 265 acting as resistance if below can see 256, 250
INTU pushing down into 617 possible bounce there then heading to 599
DKNG heading down to 35
JMIA moving along to 11.80,12 above 10.55
SNAP must stay over 17.07 for 19
WING target hit on trendline, could overshoot to 379 but don't get greedy as trendlines usually yield bounces
CMG approaching 56, 55.90
MSFT If then trade, stay below 461 push to 456 then can test 451
LCID potential lotto above 3.35 into 3.8,4 ( speculative low price mover)
CVNA pushing into 135
AAPL 230 calls coming in flow


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JULY 10, 2024 AM

MAG7 - After making new highs on JULY 5, really has gone sideways with closing price inside JULY 5 trading day and spikes higher but not closing higher... topped out but has not rolled over. Still above all MA's on daily & weekly but chopping and digesting. Looking for 132 area.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - no change - chopping sideways between 275 and 288.

IWF:IWD - Still above all MA's on daily / weekly. Extended but making new highs.

INTERMARKET

T2123 - horrible; makes Sam nervous.

WTI CRUDE - fell over-night outside of yesterdays candle - rallied back near the open and is back inside yesterdays range. Weekly - we broke outside of last weeks candle & came back in.

GOLD (futures) - Range on weekly holding firm; 2450 / 2280 weekly channel. down on the week but still within last weeks candle & holding in the upper half. Breakout today above yesterdays high.

Nat Gas - a LOT weaker yesterday.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - started the week under 105 but managed to rally back into the 105 / 106 channel ... down slightly this morning but well inside the range. Bearish reversal at 105.80 last week. It's not in our way.

USDJPY - digesting well above 160.

BONDS

TLT - Could turn into a H&S - but it has not yet.

TNX - still looking for 4.2%

INDEX

NYSE - Still sideways and chopping - weeks spent in a range. Holding elevated highs on weekly - above 17,500 strong support but under 18,500 strong resistance weekly.

SPX - gapped but didn't break.

SPY - Firmly Green

IWM - could start to see a short covering rally

QQQ - 500- call wall.

VIX - put BUYING spotted yesterday.

SVXY - a little red;

CHASE

AMD 180 approaching 183.83 next... tagged, overshooting has a habit of rejecting 187 careful

AAPL 230 calls coming in flow

CMG approaching 56, 55.90

CVNA pushing into 135

DKNG heading down to 35

INTU pushing into 617 possible bounce there then 599

JMIA moving along to 11.80,12 above 10.55

LCID potential lotto above 3.35 into 3.8,4 ( speculative low price mover)

MSFT - (If then trade) stay below 461 push to 456 then can test 451

NVDA 135 approaching 138 next

SNAP must stay over 17.07 for 19

TSLA - 265 tagged, target hit if it can get above 280 next... if this can stay below 265 it can revisit 256, 250

WING target hit on trendline, could overshoot to 379 but don't get greedy as trendlines usually yield bounces

HONORABLE MENTIONS

SEMI's are just hot. MAG7 are just hot.

AMD - bullish above weekly 21-MA. Extremely bullish still. 164, 174, 184. Keep it simple

AAPL - calls coming in.

AEM - great scoop pattern - another strong name.

ARQT - approval.. selling off on the news. Got approval. ... looking for signs of support.

AEHR - earnings popped this last night. Get above $15.31 for 16.00 weekly PT.

AMLX - another name in the drug space.

AMAT - breakout into new highs. Nothing wrong with this chart. Extended but not bearish.

AVGO - still strong.

BIDU - news of ROBO TAXI's yesterday gave this a pop higher. Tapped daily 55-MA. Get & Stay above the 10W ... then we could digest & move higher.

BABA - could be developing a bottom but needs to get above 77 to excite. Likely see 70$ tagged again FIRST before any real pop higher.

CVNA - 132.50 weekly PT. Above 135 would be very bullish. 132.55 is the level to get above for 135 PT.

$C - above 61.67 is very strong.

CMG - 56 is coming in nicely. Short working. 56 short PT is in focus. Restaurant short

DPZ - Restaurant short play. Broke the 100-week & the prior support level into 470 weekly...

DXJ - weekly breakout - has moved higher w/ the DXY:Yen.

DRI - 135 & then a bounce.

EBS - very nice above the 200-day ... great example of a "turn around" company. Gapped up from "nothing" - held above 200-day MA and tagged 9.00$. Impressive.

EWTX - bullish above 12.46 weekly. great !!!

EWJ - exploded higher off weekly support. Still looks great. This was the "buffett bet" from last April. 72 weekly PT.

GLD - in play sideways.

GEO - a "trump play" - breaking up again.

GLW - just WOW ... explosive move holds highs

HIMS - popped on drug news this year but faded after LLY and NVO announcements. 19.29 weekly support could fail & we could see a gap close around 14.50 area.

HE - bullish flows.

ICE - Like this for higher; looks great. Working.

INTU - shake n bake.

JMIA - popped above 50-week. Has doubled in 1 month. Has to stay above 10.55$ ... this is "Amazon company" of South Africa

LNTH - large gap up on daily;

LRCX - still in play.

INTC - trapped bulls. Seen some heavy selling at 35 but it recovered quickly. Holding above the 55-day MA.

MRVL - could take off... has not yet. Poised for more.

MSFT - reversal candle on daily (evening star reversal). Could be weakness. Stay below 464 hourly. If you want to trade a short term short - 456 & then 451 as short term PT's lower.

NTAP - AI eco-system ... just wow.

NVDA - options flows suggested they are still buying here. Got above the gap fill & continued higher as Sam said it would. SOLD 120 puts w/ BUY 145 calls ... that was a spread spotted yesterday

NOW - breaking down further; 712 & then 696 PT. Aim for the 200-day MA.

ORCL - got hit by MUSK but getting defended.

PLTR - 28.30 weekly PT.

PATH - layoff news

PYPL - hold 57 weekly. Would be lovely.

QURE - popped into the 50-week. Keep it above the 200-day MA.

QCOM - popping back up.

RACE - Needs above 430 .. would be great above that.

SLV - in play sideways

SMCI - hit 927 PT. Cheers.

SG - 200-day short PT. Continues to work as a short. Was one of the top Restaurant Names on the year.

SNAP - has not triggered yet.

TSM - moving higher.

TWST - 50.50 weekly resistance. In play above 200-day MA.

TM - potential play... resting on the 50-week ... stay above 101 weekly. Another Japan name. Better above 215

TJTX - drug approval has sparked interest & triggered a lot of companies to swap to this drug. Has a lot of large investors, lots of hedge funds ... bullish positioning.

TSLA - is just TSLA. Hit 265 weekly PT. It's 11-days of green ... Above 265 weekly we could see 280 weekly. Breaking 256 offers a short into 237 PT.

UBER - dumping. Looking for a ricochet rabbit

WING - short play has worked great. 379 short PT. Restaurant play.

WMT - nothing wrong.

VRPX - was up 62% on a published study. Strong reversal formation. Pain Relief for "wounds" - but it's "too soon" - since the drug is still in testing.

VKTX - looking better

VLO - bouncing on the 200-day MA.

SEDG - short covering play -

GME - short covering play.

LCID - short covering play - above 3.00

Hedge Fund Factor rotation ...potential ...

TXN - it's going for it again.

AMAT - breakout into new highs. Nothing wrong with this chart. Extended but not bearish.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.