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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 5/3/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

From sam - I posted mid-day yesterday that I saw USD + 10Y yields falling which would be bullish stocks and bonds. We got it - 1st from AAPL results after hours and 2nd from NFP miss (pulling rate cuts forward a bit). I do not expect any cuts/hikes, but the 3.9% unemployment rate is now helping yields to soften after the QRA/FOMC easing from Wednesday.
Long story short, it is very hard to short markets here given how I have higher QQQ/SPX price targets of 445/5200.
In the immediate future, I see bonds bouncing into 4.36% 10Y - then QQQ should be up to my 445 target. This should put some pressure on XLE + XLF, for example. Think: Value to Growth rotation for a bit - maybe into NVDA earnings May 22nd.
Then it will be a good place for a reversal I believe.
VIX pushing down to 13.38
Breadth pushing into the underside of the trendline needs to break higher to continue
Positioning still bullish in silver and gold even as it goes lower
MELI above 1674 next is 1700,1727
CMI below 276 we have 269.79
AMGN erasing losses pushing back to 319,323
LLY 742 filled, below 736 we have 728.89 eventually 672
AMZN 185 tagged now must hold here for 188, still has unfilled gap at 174
TSLA pushing down to 177,173
BABA 81 tagged holds above we have 83
BIDU 112 tagged, next 114
SQ above 75 to push 77.85,80
NET below 75 headed down to 72
BKNG holds above 3715 we have 3750,3800; below 3664 we gapfill
AAPL above 184 can push 186,188 then maybe a short
BONUS FROM SAM
Best chase shorts this morning:
EXPE, NET are done ... TSLA needs to trigger 180Best MACRO Short ideas still working:
USDJPY into 152 = falling dollar + yields for higher FXY, TLT, QQQ, SPY
Best swing short sector/stock rotation working:
XLE, WTIC, COIN, LLY (NVO) - now adding XLF


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Michael's Trading Room Summary

MAY 3, 2024 AM

This NFP report (miss) will NOT change the Fed's path.

MAG7 - As you would imagine - this gapped higher after AAPL earnings & is now near ATH again... but "near" is not "AT" new highs. Above all the daily MA's.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Below 300; still above 288. Below 300 is bullish the market.

IWF:IWD - Interesting that we have not seen a move premarket ... where we saw moves in others. looking to get above the daily over-head TL.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - making new higher lows.

T2104 - trying to get going; we'll see.

T2123 - making new higher lows.

T2126 - some follow-through but likely not enough today.

WTI CRUDE - yesterday was a wide doji; at the Wednesdays lows then & still at the Wednesdays lows today. Watching close for an attempt to rally back towards Wednesdays highs or break outside of yesterdays lows and continue lower. Still under 79.11 daily. Rolling over with refiners.

GOLD (futures) - still under 2300 daily. That is the resistance we have to take out.

Nat Gas - nice pop higher this morning; still within the chop range.

Bit Coin - bounced.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - broke under 105; dropped on bigger USDJPY intervention. Are we going to BOOM.. and so equities are bid. Great roll-over. Will put support into stocks & bonds.

USDJPY - Below 153 daily. More intervention has taken it away from the daily highs. big bearish engulfing weekly. In Play for dollar / yields pullback.

BONDS

TLT - held key levels; stay above 88.47 weekly.

TNX - 4.36% weekly short PT. This will help the "warm housing market" theme...

ZN (10Y) - popping higher this morning. 110 PT

ZT (2Y) - popping higher this morning. Bullish Engulfing & follow-through candle. 102 pt

INDEX

NYSE - back into the muck. Support needs to break for more.

SPX - 5200 still PT. 5068 will fill (but we will also fill the 5192.54).

SPY - gapped above 510.13 daily. Firm above 510.

IWM - large gap up; giving it back as the day goes on. Above 200 daily.

QQQ - 445 still PT. Too early to short now. Would not be surprised if we digest today but still see 445 as PT. Stay below 434.65 hourly if you want to chase short today.

VIX - broke below 14.85's last weeks level. Hitting weekly TL. 13.38 weekly short PT.

SVXY - 56.52 weekly needs to break for a cont bullish move.

BXM - fine. Stalking a market top.

CHASE

AMZN 185 tagged now must hold here for 188, still has unfilled gap at 174. Calls coming in.

AMGN erasing losses pushing back to 319,323

BABA 81 tagged holds above we have 83

BIDU 112 tagged, next 114

BKNG holds above 3715 we have 3750,3800. below 3664 we gapfill

LLY 742 filled, below 736 we have 728.89 eventually 672

MELI above 1674 next is 1700,1727. may be done for today

NET below 75 headed down to 72

QQQ needs to stay below 435 if u want to chase it short above we have 440,445

SPX 5129 resistance to 5111 channel, above we have 5174 below 5111 we have gapfill to 5065

SQ above 75 to push 77.85,80

TSLA pushing down to 177,173

VIX pushing down to 13.38

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Utilities are fine; nothing wrong there. Some Miners are ok too. Should see China stocks continue to do well; but it's at a place where it should struggle.

AMGN - erased losses. right back up to 311. This is competition to LLY and NVO & VKTX.

AAP - light pop on the hourly.

AMZN - still has not broken trend. Calls coming in (closer to the money).

ARKG - nice pop this morning. AMGN giving it a lift to make it look so bullish. BRTX as well. REGN too. MRNA as well ...

ANF - expect a bounce & a tag before rolling over.

AAPL - what the heck ...? Massive Stock BuyBack. Historic BuyBack. 188 should be resistance & we should see digestion there.

BKNG ... looks great. Looks more bullish than bearish.

BABA - needs to digest here. Stunning. Firm.

CI - looks dangerous here.

COIN - not much bounce on blow-out earnings.

DVA - face plant. Smacked down from weekly 141.50 resistance. Saw some selling.

DKNG - earnings pop but gave it all back.

ENPH - when yields drop - solar pops. popping nicely today.

EOG - 200-day MA PT & then it'll be fine.

EXPE - loser. broke the 200day. Still falling. support at 400-week..

FTNT - looks like a great roll-over.

FXY - pushing into 55-day MA. Bullish pop.

IR - broke 89 weekly; weakness is only showing a "calming down" - below 89 is bearish w/ 86.50 & then 84 weekly PTs. Cont to fall this morning. Has a look. Still like 84 as PT.

ITB - popped above the 55-day. Still like the "warm housing market" theme.

GDDY - still has not rolled over yet. Crazy.

HUN - big pop but not excited about it.

JWN - getting above 20.00 would make it interesting ...but not until then.

JBL - still above 109 monthly level. On a monthly this is heading lower. VERY BEARISH ENGULFING monthly. It's GOING to come into 109 but needs to hold there. Under the 200 & 55-day MA. Buyable above 128 weekly

KWEB - still bullish but extended. Should digest here over the weekend.

LLY - sold off as expected. Been a long since 200.00$. Making lower highs on weekly. 672.62, 663, and then 630 short PT's weekly. Like that for a re-entry long off that 630 level.

MELI - reported. Brazil "Like Amazon" style company. Above the 55-day MA. Above the 200-day (up slopping). Bullish. Has momentum - but think it's done today.

MNST - hitting resistance at 54.50 daily / weekly resistance. Stock Buyback reason for bounce.

NVDA - above the 860 PT

NVO - getting into distribution. Bearish Engulfing. Broke the 55-day MA. Follow through the short.

NET - breaking to the 200-day; target is 72 weekly

PCAR - getting ripped apart. back to 103 weekly; not too scary. Likely bounces into the 50-week.

QCOM - nice after earnings. 188 tag possible weekly. Like this one.

RKT - Like it. Swings were early. Should be fine.

SQ - not excited. beat on earnings / revenue & raised guidance ... but still selling off.

STZ - not worth it.

TNDM - amazing pop above the daily channels. Back in play. Thought this would suffer because of the weight loss drugs (like NVO and LLY)...? Earnings were good.

TXRH - going great; hitting weekly fibs. Likely done here.

TSLA - break 180 for 174 then 169 short PT's daily. Break 180 for 177 then 174 for hourly

VKTX - NASH data is coming.

XLE - looking for more weakness. Pullback here w/ QQQ pulling forward to 445 & then reverse that. Rolls over w/ financials & QQQ's supported... as a theme that is something to support. ...

XLF - weakness shining. puts coming in. 39.25 first PT. Looks like they want to go lower. Holding the daily 55-MA support... a great breakdown lower. 39.45 or 39.25 PT.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.