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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
FROM SAM -
Biden to address nation tomorrow night at 8PM ET.
This will dispel the X rumors of his death/impairment. I expect it to be a loud rally call by Biden for Harris that is heard round the world!
Bullish Surprise Coming?
The surprise element could be him handing over POTUS decisions to Harris until end of his term, even if he said Sunday he would see his term out in the same way Saturday that he would beat Trump in November.
Anyway, I was right about Biden bowing out - from my DECEMBER call - and I was right about Harris getting the nomination. I don't care who she picks as VP, honestly. But the market betting on Trump as fait accompli is way early I believe.
The DEM MACHINE cannot be discounted so easily.
And with that: If Biden hands over the reigns to Harris at his SOTU speech THEN watch for markets to potentially get juiced into the election by Fed/Treasury/WH.
Yes, Powell/Yellen will fight to the death to support democracy, or their version of democrazy.
Key inflation data this week (FRI - PCE) that can move the dollar & yields.
Currently, we are neutrally positioned firmly inside the D/W 10Y2Y yield curve wedge.
Expecting a big move either way, especially with FOMC July 31st, where I have already written in April that I see them talking accommodation for Sept rate cut - long before it grew to 100% odds.
IWM above 212.25 wkly close is still BULLISH.
Doesn't mean I can't see NDX, NYFANG or MAG7 ratio also rising up again, dependent on tech earnings. As I said PELOSI still hold AVGO + NVDA calls. We aren't going down until she sells. (kidding not kidding). Actually, what I said was that I see at most 2 more quarters of good tech earnings before guidance gets retracted in 2025.Top Chases Today:
GM short into key 10W support/bounce area - worked!
NXPI short into key 21W support area - worked! I like it for more.
GE long into key wkly resistance area of 176.92 hit - strong continuation likely.
Trend Breakouts (new ATH or 52W highs post earnings)
SAP
PNR
DHR
GE
HCA
LMT
PHM
CARR - has eps 7/25 but looks good
PCT > 6.59 is more a bottom fishing breakout
VIX CALLS GETTING BOUGHT
Keep in mind my prior VIX summary:
"VIX - as posted Thursday: 16.50 is resistance. Today I said I expect it to come down into 14.88 then 14.49. Same thing with VXN - from last Mon warning it was above 200D into 22 wkly trendline resistance."
We made it back to 14.49 just in time before TSLA + GOOGL earnings tonight...EARNINGS GALORE
TSLA + GOOGL earnings tonight
I will review all each morning in my live trading room!!CONGRATS ARCHNA on full profit for SHOP debit call spread!!Rithika chase summary notes:
NVDA pushing into 125.5 target
IWM above 221 target 223, 224 stop: 220
GM below 48.5 for 46.74, 46.5 gap fill
LMT over 480 into 490,498
HCA needs above 344.20 for higher
HD needs above 363 for 375
coin above 263 into 272; over 270.5 we have 274.5, 281 next
NXPI below 269 for 252, 239
AMZN above 186 into 188,190
VIX weakening below 14.8
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 23, 2024 AM
PCE report on Friday; is going to be the focus for DXY and YIELDS.
MAG7 - bounced into the 10 & 20-day MA's - stalled in a DOJI higher than Friday's DOJI but still within Thursdays range - still sideways. As long as IWM is above 212 weekly - it's hard to see a new leg up here.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - testing 275; sideways and nothing here.
IWF:IWD - caught a little bounce yesterday - back into the underside of the 50-DAY MA. Still under the 10,20, & 50day MA's. Lot's of Value Plays. Even if we pop up a bit more - still expecting lower (1.95 area).
WTI CRUDE - dropped below 78 daily; still in wide range. Continues to soften. Sell the rip - expecting this lower into the year.
GOLD (futures) - fell into 2400- holding there daily.
Nat Gas - tested 2.30 but failed to make it through.
Bit Coin - rallied into 68+ before stalling and fading back under 67k; resting near 66.5k in premarket trading.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - inside day breakout w/ strong push holding nHOW- looks like 104.50 may act as resistance on daily. Still digesting;
USDJPY - fell into 156 support on daily; looking for signals that this will act supportive. Last weeks "weekly breakdown" out of the wedge continues. JGB-10Y getting action in a gap - up pop but those flows faded and we are back to the close of yesterday (still above 1.05%).
BONDS
TLT - big sweeping moves yesterday but still closed red; popped up in premarket "near" yesterdays mid-point. Sideways on daily.
TNX -sideways but still under 4.3% ... holding above 4.2% daily. Still looking for 4.0% this summer.
ZN (10Y) - first green day (so far) in 4 days of red... still in a range.
ZT (2Y) - first green day (so far) in 4 days of red... still in a range.
INDEX
NYSE - another attempt to breakout of the weekly wedge; closed above 18,500 yesterday.
SPX - closed at 5564.40. Support: 5,550, 5,517, 5,500... Resistance: 5,560, 5,592, 5,600. 5650 STILL LINE IN THE SAND. 5567.77 hourly resistance is now under the market. Keep that level to continue higher.
SPY - 564.27 hourly gap to fill. 548.88 lower gap to fill. Could rise to fill the gap here (and NASDAQ too);
QQQ - 495.50 gap fill still digesting. We are under it & it still exists over-head. above 486 hourly then it's likely we go meet that gap FIRST before anything else happens.
IWM - stay above $212.25 ... Sam has talked about this for months. Still above the 10-week.
VIX - 14.49 PT is in focus. Almost there.
CHASE
COIN above 263 into 272 | 274.5, 281 above 270.55 next
GM below 48.5 for 46.74 | GM 46.53 gapfill approaching then well see
HCA needs above 344.20 for higher
IWM above 221 target 223, 224 stop: 220
HD needs above 363 for 375
LMT over 480 into 490,498
NVDA pushing into 125.5 target
NXPI below 269 for 252, 239
HONORABLE MENTIONS
ADI - hanging out;
AMZN - a beast. Nice bounce on 21-week MA. 192.24 daily gap to fill. Anything above 185 is pushing. Back above the 55-day - keep it above 186.43 hourly. 189.68 pt & then 192.77 pt. 191.70 weekly resistance.
ANF - not ready - not yet.
BABA - still think it comes down here. It's not ready
CARR - 66.32 breakout weekly needs to hold.
COIN - bit coin proxies are not all that amazing but this is breaking out above 241 & that needs to hold or it will be a great breakdown.
CRWD - hit 261.81 daily short PT. Could see a bounce into the gap 297.40 area before rolling over for lower.
DKS - possible short; options are poor. 190 short PT.
DGX - too thin. Looks fine - choppy
DIS - earnings did not impress investors.
$F - 13.44 short PT.
GE - very bullish.
GM - weekly 48.55 needs to hold if you are short; 46.75 short pt weekly. 46.55 hourly PT.
GOOGL - earnings after the close.
GDX - still looks weak.
GLD - still looks weak.
HD - like it.
HCA - best of breed; long still strong.
ISRG - weekly breakout needs to stay above 447
IIRP - like it.
JOE - breakout doing great. BZH - too.
KO - doing "ok" - seriously. Still like it.
LMT - looks great above 480 weekly as a breakout stock.
LLY - getting a bounce.
MSCI - an earnings play that did well.
MRK - watching it - looking for it to get into the groove.
MTCH - firm; doing well.
NVDA - 125.52 hourly has not tagged; bullish above that.
NXPI - 268 daily is the level to close below (or the 55-day MA). 258, 252, PT's. 235 puts or PT wouldn't surprise.
NOW - came back in. Bouncing.
PHM - digesting after earnings. Likely gets defended. Likely digests above 155.
PM - great weekly breakout.
PLTR - doing well.
PEP - has work to do. 175 PT "if"
PNR - earnings were good. Continues to look good. get above 86 weekly. breakout.
SPOT - no edge on earnings - Archna took that long in a debit spread - made max profit. Stay above 331 weekly.
SAP - earning - has been great & still great. Sam said she liked it long - and it's just continued to drive higher
SHW - said it was great - continues to move higher off the bottom. Looks good. (HD looks good too)
SLV - still looks weak.
TPH - doing great.
TSLA - earnings on deck; ambitious
UPS - not doing good.
VKTX - has not broke out - has not broke down.
RETAIL SHORTS
DKS -
Restaurants
WING - hitting 55-day from below
DPZ - still under the 200day
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/23/24