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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 5/1/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

Markets nervous. Front running hawkish Janet & Jerome.
sam thinks we are still in a big distribution top - with semis and mag7 best shorts with bitcoin - but sam also see higher price targets in SPX + QQQ we will tag at some point on bullish macro backdrop. Not earnings - the bar is too high. More likely on intervention of USD + 10Y.
Right now we don't have that so markets are selling off.
Fed won't likely hike or cut rest of year. Just talk about both.
Big focus this morning:
Oil & Refiner shorts - Sam posted lots on this under #Oil channel - WTIC, ULSD, CRAK, VLO, XL
Discussed at length levels of VIX + VXN - market bullish/bearish.
Discussed continued bullish bent on Utilities, China + gld/slv miners even as I predict GLD/SLV to continue to pullback.
Best chases short today:
SMCI 794 resistance to 707 hrly gap fill
AMD rejection
NVDA rejection
AMZN is just starting to break - so this one is next
For Fed:
SPX - BULLISH ABOVE 5019, BEARISH BELOW
QQQ- BULLISH ABOVE 423, BEARISH BELOW
MMM approaching 100 target, can overshoot to 101
MPC heading down to 173.33
SBUX below 75 pushing down to 73,71.90 on bad earnings
MSFT 390 tagged, perfect rollover chase, stabilizing a little if it breaks 389 we have 384.30 next
CGC wait for it to settle above 11.57 , current channel between 13.5-11.57, above 13.57 we can test 14.88,16
BIDU above 104 can push into 107,109
DELL - is rolling over... break of 117.8 for 111.42 at 55D is the key


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Michael's Trading Room Summary

MAY 1, 2024 AM

Craig suggests that the QRA data offers a Hawkish Outcome. High Yield Credit Spreads are contracting again.

MAG7 - Still chopping sideways daily.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - still holding the channel of chop; above 300 but under 310. Sam still see's 350 this year. Back below 300 - then Sam is wrong & we have a market that likely runs higher.

IWF:IWD - cont to see lower highs and lower lows on daily; chopping & sideways

INTERMARKET

T2100 - hit weekly resistance & are coming back in.

T2104 - sold off strongly yesterday. big dump. looks nasty. 10/21 weekly has not rolled over yet but it's an ugly chart. Hit weekly keltner high & rejected.

T2123 - selling off; need something from fed today that would maybe ... get back inside & bounce but that is risk.

T2126 - rejected. hit weekly resistance & are coming back in.

WTI CRUDE - 79.11 still in play w/ "sell the rip" as the theme. OIL REFINERS have a pretty H&S on the hourly. The measured move is near 75.00 daily. Level by level, 79.11 & then 77 and then 75. We COULD continue to rally higher - as a H&S CAN BE seen as a continuation pattern (not just a reversal pattern).

ULSD - BOB suggests that there could be a measured move into 2.15 a gal .

GOLD (futures) - broke 2300; now trying to test it from below

Nat Gas - chopping sideways but holding above 2.00 daily.

Bit Coin - broke 60k & is now under 58k. See 52.5k in time

FX

Dollar (DXY) - holding under 106.50 daily; but holding it well. Firm

USDJPY - holding under 158 daily; but holding up well. BOJ-10Y still under 0.90%.

BONDS

TLT - chopping sideways; holding in the channel (87.50 to 89.50). Sam saw a 91/93 call spread for May (looks like it targets the 200-day MA). That sort of move would be supportive to equities.

TNX - Still has not broke the key level (4.688%).

INDEX

NYSE - has not broken down the 10/21 yet.

SPX - dumping; could see reversal this morning. 5019 hourly short PT - would be a great place for a possible bounce.

SPY - trying to digest 502 / 501 level. Looks productive for a bounce. Held 500- barely. Testing the underside of the TL. 504 PT if the bounce works

QQQ - Still in the chop zone. Above 425 we have a bounce. 445 / 447 is gap fill. Yesterdays PT's hit. Break above 423 for 425 & then the TL as PT.

VIX - choppy; perky but not in a big way. Breaking 15 on a weekly = market bullish.

SVXY - big gap down; Under 55 daily.

CHASE

AAPL - holding in there. Over-sold bounce. Bearish into the 171.31 gap.

AMZN has to get over 188.9 to be swing bullish again, has a gap to 174 so sam is not interested because it could reject to come down and fill it

AMD trying to move back into the channel, above 149 can try 152 but sam not super into it

BIDU above 104 can push into 107,109

CGC wait for it to settle above 11.57 , current channel between 13.5-11.57, above 13.57 we can test 14.88,16

MSFT 390 tagged, perfect rollover chase, stabilizing a little if it breaks 389 we have 384.30 next

MSOS needs above 11 for 12.16,13 must stay above 10.30 pushed into 100D and rejected

MMM approaching 100 target, can overshoot to 101

MPC heading down to 173.33

NVDA 833 gapfill then 823

QQQ broke 429 into 425 gapfill and overshot to 422, needs over 423 for 425, below 422 we have 419

SBUX below 75 pushing down to 73,71.90 on bad earnings

SPX continue down to 5019 then a bounce

SMCI 794-742 channel, have to get above 794 for 850,927 below we have 667

TSLA below 181 we have 170 gapfill

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AMD - looks like SMCI. Under the 55-day MA. Already coming back into the hourly channel ( well... it's trying to). Just not ready yet.. but it's try. Stay above 147 hourly. Still see selling under the surface.

AMZN - Still have 188 resistance as key level; This is Sam's FAV of the MAG7. Has a 174 gap to fill. IT WILL FILL. Hitting the kelts weekly. Not interested in this until it gets into blue sky.

CGC - wait for this to settle down; around 11.57 daily.

CCJ - 44 or 41.65 would not surprise

COIN - just sitting here.

CVS - earnings beat down.

LLY has a nice morning star reversal.

GLD - 206 PT

GBCT - nice roll-over. 48.65 weekly still the short PT. Think it gets cut in 1/2. Under the 55-day.

KWEB - still awesome.

MSOS - reclassification of Drug schedules (news basically) popped this space higher. (CGC, ACB, MJ ect ect).

MSFT - great chase. Sam said it would break & it did. Said it was going to 390 & it did. Still looks like a better short than a long.

MSTR - broke 1080.

MMM - Monthly chart for analysis; weekly is poo. Above the 200-day MA & 55-day MA. 101.00 is the level to get above for a move into 109.

MJ - getting digesting. MSOS as well.

MULN - news - trash. avoid.

MPC - 173.33 level. 100-day MA PT.

NVDA - 833 gap fill PT. go for it. 823 PT below that

NFLX - broken; looks like a great short on weekly. Long above 552 offers 552 then 559 then 580 (on the daily). Getting above 557 weekly offers a move into 579 ... Stay below 559 offers 537.70 daily.

NARI - lot of short interest.

NIO - get back above 5.65

PBF - H&S. 100-day MA PT.

SQ - news causing a sell-off. 64.55 PT.

SMH - breaking the 55-day again. Evening star reversal. Keep it below 214 daily. Bullish if it gets above that 214 level.

SBUX - they are in trouble. Losing price & volume. Big consumer sentiment "tells" - (like DIS & NKE). Having issues on margin controls.

SMCI - bullish above 927. testing the 100-day MA. Under the 55-day MA. 742 / 794 hourly channel. Stay below 745 for a move into 700, 660 & then 606.

SLV - trend is still very bullish; like it from the possible pullback area of 23 area.

TSLA - hit that 198.60 weekly TL resistance. 4 or 5 levels of weekly resistance & came back down. Resting on the 3-day MA. a selloff offer 171 then 146.

TMDX - just WOW. Still getting picked up; strong beat.

VLO - pretty H&S pattern on the daily. Resting on the 55-day MA. 160 is a weekly key level; breaking that could offer a decent move lower (even with a stellar earnings season in this space). Has a MM into 139 w/ an overshoot into 135. 100-day MA

VKTX - starting to move a little higher. (NVO reports 05.02.24)...

WING - earnings.

XLE - cont to sell off (more than crude). 92.50 is key weekly level. Careful on XLE; in distribution right now. Testing that 55-day.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.