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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 3/12/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

Rotation in play! Gold down, Nasdaq up!! And USDJPY bounced off 146.58 PT.

This goes along with my March 1st client post that Gold spiking would cause Nasdaq to calm down. It did - for 9 days! But now with CPI coming in hotter than expected, USD & 10Y bounced WITH markets as they expect NO HIKES and stag-flationary affect of declining trend in Core CPI to 3.8% YoY with rising prices + 3.2% YoY set against a unemployment rate of 3.9% ... ensuring a Fed pause.

FFR is 5.4% and forward annualized CPI is 4.9%. Maybe we get 50bp of cuts this year. That's what the market is pricing in.

So market bounces + NVDA calls for $1K get bid with SPX calls for $5200.

Best CHASE today was GPS pushing above 21.77 daily resistance with 23 PT. We got there quickly, now looking for 24.49 in time.

VLO + XLE swing long ideas have done GREAT with VLO hitting 152.20 PT + XLE hitting 88.77. Now, can they both get/stay above...

China plays continue to work as bottom fishing. JD was best gap up.

AMD + META shorts stopped working as SVXY went solidly green + pushed above 109. Cannot short a market with a green SVXY.

Net breadth and net buying continue under the surface, but price action I expect to stay choppy into EOW + EOM.

CPNG > 19.06, 19.27 is nice chase with APR 20C getting bid earlier.

META & MSFT both up 1.4% from open

BA + TSLA look the worst.

SPX held the 5140 level and pushed into 5169, if it holds above can push into 5180, 5200
QQQ above 439 is bullish into 444
IWM above 201 is bullish
VIX below 14.49 is market bullish so is SVXY above 109
DXY rejecting the 103 level
Breadth is still bullish NVDA with call buying, above 880 tagged 900 target next is 920 if it can get above 920 can test 1000 again
ORCL below 127.42 is a gapfill potential 117.5, ai space be careful holds is bullish above
DOCU over 59 can see 62.5
BA below 186 can come down to 176 and find support
AAPL once its breaks 171.3 we can push down to 168 stop: 173 potential overshoot to 165
CELH needs to digest here and push 89 for 93, protect if you are swing long
TSLA below 173 to 170,167.5 stop: 175
CROX above 128 next is 130
IBM over 196 approaches 198,200
XLE above 89 we can push 91,93; really needs to get above 93 for a mega move
GOOGL above 138.30 into 140 long pt
VLO approaching 152.5 target needs above for 155
AMD needs to stay below 200 to remain bearish
SQ, TWLO,ZM trying to get off the floor
MSFT needs above 415 for expanded volatility, 409 pivot


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

MAR 12, 2024 AM

Lower mortgage rate may help loosen up the markets a bit. Could see some housing support coming in.

MAG7 - tangled at the 3, 10, & 20MA. Still range-bound and chopping. gapped up this morning but not enough to get outside of yesterdays candle.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - testing the 263 levels after setting a swing low on the daily.

IWF:IWD - large gap up this morning; completely outside the previous days level. Still firmly under the 50-day MA, the 20-day MA and the 10-day MA. Looks like we could test the 50-day MA from below today. Yesterday Sam said "Still have growth weakness. Growth is retreating & value is going down less fast." It's a bounce idea this morning - into the under-side.

Intermarket

T2104 -

T2123 - does not look bearish.

T21126 - nothing wrong.

WTI Crude - 75.59 short pt.

GOLD (futures) - 2195 daily resistance cont to hold; down firmly below yesterdays low. a little shake & shimmy down. Your welcome. Expecting 2146 area.

Nat Gas -soggy; choppy;

Bit Coin - topped out yesterday - still holding the highs but not yet advancing this morning. April 26 is an important date - keep that in mind as the event nears.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - staying firm. Above 103 again on the hourly. Not expecting excitement ... short the rip.

USDJPY - popped after BOJ comments. Still under 148 weekly. Looking for 148.40 area.

BOJ 10Y - looks to be heading up to the "cap" - like a little test.

USDDCNH - looks like it wants to roll-over. Really nice looking roll over on the weekly waiting to happen.

Bonds

TLT - 96.33 perfectly & getting tapped back down. Could see a move back up to tag 98 weekly. 94.84 is support (200-day MA & gap fill on the channel).

TNX - 3.9% would not surprise. Firm.

ZN (10Y) - Large outside bar Friday closed green. This morning we are doji on the daily but under the 112' daily resistance.

ZT (2Y) - Large outside bar Friday closed green. Down this morning but still well within Friday's range.

10/2 yield curve - still looking for 0.60%.

Index

SPX - bullish above 5131 offers - 5189 long PT.

SPY - above 514 it's bullish.

QQQ - above 439 is bullish. Looking to close the gap first before anything else. Still see 434.65 and then 430 as short PT.

SVXY - hitting its head on 109, needs above to be bullish

Chase

AMD - chase short cont to work. 193 PT. then 185. Needs to stay below 200 to remain bearish

AAPL once its breaks 171.3 we can push down to 168 stop: 173 potential overshoot to 165

CROX above 128 next is 130

CELH needs to digest here and push 89 for 93, protect if you are swing long

DOCU - over 59 can see 62.5

GOOGL - 140 Long PT.

IBM - over 196 approaches 198,200

NVDA - with call buying, above 880 can see 900,920

ORCL - 127.42 weekly resistance coming into focus. Bullish above - Bearish below.

Sam thinks this makes a bearflag on SPX and break 5111 for 5080 again

TSLA below 173 to 170,167.5 stop: 175

VLO approaching 152.5 target needs above for 155

XLE above 89 we can push 91,93; really needs to get above 93 for a mega move

Trend

HD - doing fine. shake n bake - needs to get back above 375 weekly to cont long.

LLY - have not broke the trend.

Honorable Mentions

ALLY - doing well -

AMZN - pushing above hourly resistance.

AMZN - protect if long.

ARM - needs to break 118 area.

ANF - still a great short.

ADM - think it gets bid back up; get above 57.76. Watch the 10-week & the kelts. Above that 10MA we could close the gap at 68 weekly. Still looks very productive.

AAP - hitting the 50-week MA resistance - completely outside of the weekly Kelts. Nearly hit the weekly bollinger band top. Activist Investors ("Third Point" LLC) has taken 3 board seats. 80.81 daily resistance. Down-slopping 200-MA needs to flatten out. Will take a while. (think CVNA chart). Down going down but needs a lot of time to digest & heal. AUG & JUNE call buying coming in. Above that 50-week ... great!

AAPL - break 171.32 hourly for a short play. break 171.32 daily for a short. We WILL tag the 100-week MA. Still see that happening.

BA - 186.50 weekly & 177 quarterly support. 186.50 hourly support.

BABA - looks trying to

BROS - Archnia trading this. Looking at 32.42 weekly. Resumes the move higher.

COST - looking to see this peter out.

CAT - had a pullback.

CPNG - still fighting the 100-week.

COIN - 261.15 weekly resistance. 256.35 hourly needs to break for a short play.

CSCO - anything above 50 weekly.

CELH - still need to take care.

COF - still looks good.

CL - above 86.38 weekly - doing well after breaking above 82.50 weekly. Blue Sky's now.

CVNA - if it breaks 76 weekly it's gonna come back to play in the channel.

DXCM - stable. Needs patience.

DIS - sideways. bullish trend above the 10-week.

EOLS - stay above 12.81 - looks great.

EBAY - still going great.

FXY - getting tapped back down;

GSIT - baby NVDA.

GE - extended but not bearish. breaking 162 could offer a short but that is not base case.

GDDY - still looks really good. Above the 55-day MA now.

GOOGL - long 140 PT. (cont from yesterday)

GIS - has great potential. 65.50 weekly support. Down-slopping 200-day MA. Sideways like HSY

GPS - looks good. Coming back to complete the "scoop" weekly pattern. Needs to stay above 21.77 daily. 23 PT and then 24 PT.

HOOD - 17.21 weekly resistance holding.

HAL - looks good above 36

HSY - down slopping 200day MA. Sideways. Weekly squeeze is tightening.

HPQ - partnership with NVDA - pressing into weekly resistance.

INTC - above 45.34 weekly it will "have a look"

IBM - above 195 weekly is just bullish. "old tech" is new again.

JD - 28 to 30 PT.

KWEB - pushing into the 200-day.

NVO - still really strong.

MSFT - above the 10-week.

MMM - resumed the bounce - right into the 200day MA resistance. Above 100$ would be productive.

META - bouncing right into the 8-day MA. Calls are getting bought up. Above 497 we could run into that 504 area.

NVDA - not really holding the bounce. Wait for it to roll -over. Breaking 861 then you'll see 823 PT. "if / then"

NEM - have time.

NIO - above 6.05 daily. See a bounce - not sure about the energy. An LRE is 5.35 monthly / weekly level.

PFE - not a fan - looks to try & come back up.

RNA - like this chart. 20.80 weekly support.

RMD - trying.

SLV - coming back to 22$.

STNG - digesting. has not done anything wrong.

SMH - 221.32 weekly support. Cap weighted w/ NVDA making up the largest weight.

SOXX - a "different" weighted ETF ... the options are not as violent as SMH).

TSLA - nasty. 167.50 PT w/ overshoot into 165 PT.

VKTX - 57.56 daily support still in focus. Still expect to see this defended. Still stretched above the 10-week.

XLE - into 88.77 weekly resistance. 93.31 weekly resistance.

XME - getting hit from gold & miners


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.