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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/16/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
Growth-TO-Value ROTATION in full view.

REFLATION trades are part of the small cap rotation WITH Trump bets as POTUS increasing as USD + US Yields soften. THIS ROTATION is not 'the Trump Trade".
Remember, I already warned about this rotation LAST MONDAY, did an EDGE webinar with Craig LAST TUESDAY - "What Can Break This Concentration Risk" - and posted my market thoughts to all members on a QQQ fade at 504/507 with rotation LAST WEDNESDAY - all before the assassination attempt Saturday evening. ;-)

Macro Stuff:
10Y yield continues to fade. TLT staying above 93.
30Y yield is fading with MOVE, as discussed for months ;-)

My "Warm Summer Housing Market" call is in full view:
OPEN, RDFN - oversold tech, highly shorted
TPH, JOE - fundamentally strong homebuilder/REIT
LC, RKT - shadow banking mortgage lenders
HD, URI - from home remodeling to storage, both themes mean more housing activity.

Oversold tech plays working higher as highlighted in trading room:
ROKU > 61.34 wkly support, 63.21 daily support can see nice push into 68.35, 70.95
UPST - already moved like ROKU into PTs: 29.30, 31.20 - next 32, 37
SQ, MTCH - Archna's bottom-fishing plays
SHOP, MELI - also in play
PYPL even looks ready to rise up if it can stay > 61.30 10W
CVNA - pushing higher as expected
CHPT, BLNK, PLUG - oversold battery plays in short covering mode

Growth pullback expected to pick up speed now that IWM has gone parabolic.
IWM gap up/open > 207 last Thurs I gave 212C of size getting bid.
Today large OCT 220C were rolled to 235C
IWM PT given today of 221.65 with overshoot to 225 is playing out.

Semis are sideways as profit taking commences.

Industrials & Transports playing catch up. XLI in blue skies
BRKB + XLF breaking into ATH
JBHT + ODFL bottom fishing bounces of size
MAS + BLDR wkly support bounces of size
CAT, XPO, CSX faves yday for chase/swing are still spiking higher!!!
URI - ATH breakout.
BFH bottom fishing breakout > 44.52

Random:
TOTW: UBER, MRVL, TTD are fine
UNH - nearing ATH
AMGN - ATH breakout
AEHR earnings after market close; 21.5% short interest and nice bottom fishing play.

MAG7 Short Working:
QQQ < 496 = 486.86, 479.19
META weak to 486 still working from 508.37 gap down
MSFT 456 updated stop to 451 break on daily to 446, 443.40 PT
NVDA sitting on 21D at 125.60 looks ready to give sway down to 121 to start

Trend Long Breakout Faves working great:
IR
EMR
FLR

Trend long GLD, SLV, GDX also doing well even if I was unnecessarily worried about a short-term pullback.

Bitcoin bounce into 65K
MARA, COIN fave proxies long based on chart + options flow

Defensive Swing Longs also still doing well:
XLV - txs to UNH earnings beat
XLP - ready to flag break up
XLU - hanging out

Dr Kenton's BioPharma plays are still doing great!
TWST, CADL, GH, MDWD, VKTX, MREO, VRNA, RNA, AKSM, NRIX, TGTX...

RSP:SPY Snap-back rally in full view:
Basically, the strength UNDER THE SURFACE is moving stocks higher even as SPX struggles to get/STAY above 5650 as posted last week.
But I suspect that this will peter out as RSP:SPY gets back to 2020 levels AS Mag7 pulls back. But not until it tags my ~131 MAG7 ratio target ;-)

Housekeeping:
Check out my INTERMARKET ANLAYSIS in that channel and pls note my live trading room will be CLOSED FRIDAY!


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JULY 16, 2024 AM

MAG7 - still has not retested the high set last week; sideways over the last 2 days holding above the 20 & resting on the 10day MAs' - still see 132.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Looks more bullish than bearish. Still below 275.

IWF:IWD - still has not retested the high set last week; sideways over the last 2 days holding above the 20 & resting on the 10day MAs' - broke through the MACD and support.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - very bid

T2104 - still have buying under the surface.

T2123 - hitting daily overhead TL. 5-bar rule so should soften here.

T2126 - very bid - looks extended.

WTI CRUDE - fell into the 50-day MA. broke the 10 & 20-day MA's

GOLD (futures) - inside day breakout didn't hold yesterday. tested 2450 and it proved to be solid resistance. Still holding the 2430 breakout level.

Bit Coin - ran into the 50-day MA from below but was unable to get through it. Back above the 10 & 20-day MA's. Tested 65k but was unable to get through it. Proxies are still bid. Needs to get & stay above 65k.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - 104 acting as solid support. Testing the 200-day MA from below - it's acting as a resistance (around 104.50 area)

USDJPY - under the 10 & 20-day MA's. Found support on 50-day MA & trying to push back up after yesterdays Doji day (Doji day on support).

BONDS

TLT - up in the premarket. Still under the 200-day & chopping around it.

TNX - Still looking for 4% this year.

10/2 spread - got above & came back down. Above the daily wedge. Could be a FBFF - and if it is - then we could see a fall back down FAST.

INDEX

NYSE - Large Gap up into 18500 area holding. Above all MA's. Stay above 18422 daily area.

SPX - 5650 has not been taken out. Bearish Below - Bullish Above.

VIX - elevated yesterday.

VXN - above the 200-day. That has not happened for quite a while. Watch the NASDAQ for some selling.

SVXY - slowed down; a little bit green.

IWM - Still see 220 daily TL; the 212 PT worked out really well. We have 4 days (maybe we'll see 5 days) and could see some resistance up here. Oversold plays with high interest could get a bid. Yields are coming down & shorts are getting covered. (like RDFN - OPEN - RKT - LC - TPH getting short covering). VERY IMPORTANT NOW TO WATCH FANG STOCKS (on day 5). Sorta a 5-bar rule. Up 10% in a week & they are not done yet. 221.65 is the next PT now that 220 is done. Above that 221.65 we could see 225. 220 OCT calls rolled into 235 before CPI.

QQQ - lots of shaking around. Looks like an H&S but has not confirmed. Nothing here yet. Looks weak. 491 would be the next lower PT. Below 486 weekly offers a quick short play into 479 area. JULY 19 479 / 486 put spread (lotto play - just for giggles).

TREND

HD - looks great. Trend recommend long. Earnings coming up.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

the GOLD/SILVER ratio chart still the most bullish. MSFT & META look like two of the MAG7 names weak / selling... with the QQQ's weak / selling. The Tech Channel Top may be in. Reflation Trades are in play.

AAPL - not falling apart. Starting to soften.

AFRM - hit the 200-day MA. Still under it. Above the 55-day MA.

AEHR - chase worked great. Earnings after the close. Looks fine. Has 21.5% short interest.

AMZN - inside trading (selling) has impacted the highs - still a struggle to get through 200 weekly. 191 short PT worked and we could see 185 if it continues to go lower.

BABA - lots of daily MA's under it. Shorts need to break through that trash. Gapping below 76.25 should give a "flush" behavior. To press short - get under that level.

BAC - beat (so to speak) - hit 43 premarket. Get above 42 & keep it. breakout above 42.00$ weekly.

BZH - doing well.

COST - looks like it wants more profit taking

CPNG - digested.

CRM - oversold. Popped up but looks done.

$F - great Scoop pattern w/ breakout weekly.

GLD - didn't roll over - let's see what happens now.

GS - just stay long. GS - 503.50, 521, and 543 as weekly PT's. Keep it above 492.

HOOD - above 23.74

HUT - weekly BB squeeze & breakout.

IYT - needs to stay above 66.

IBM - going great above 175.

JMIA - great scoop & continuation.

JOE - like the breakout.

JWN - funky. 23.50 daily resistance. Scoop pattern weekly looks good. It's "OK"

KRE - falling yields helps.

LC - breakout above weekly

LYFT - get above 13.46 weekly

MARA - lots of calls came in yesterday.

META - 486 weekly TL to break. Use that as short PT & look to get below that. Cont short.

MSFT - short below 456. 446 PT.

MTCH - popped back up above the 200-day. basically into 34.50 weekly.

MU - breaking the 10-week.

NFLX - tested the 55-day MA.

NVDA - break 125 to short into 121 area weekly.

OPEN - above 55-day and driving towards the 200-day MA.

PGR - Insurance. Fighting the 217.77 area weekly. Above the 55-day MA. Get & stay above 217.77 weekly.

PLTR - not falling apart.

RDFN - above the 50week or 200-day

RKT - looks like it wants to going

ROKU - day 11. Keep it above 63.21 daily / 61.34 weekly. 10/21 weekly crossing up.

SCHW - dumped a few weeks ago. FBFF type of move. Back down 69.50 hourly.

SHOP - upgraded; getting a little "to buy" - get & stay above 67.36 weekly. long anything above 67.36

SQ - looks ready to do a little rest.

TGT - trying to come up off the ground

TNA - 54 PT weekly. Stay above 43.84 weekly.

TPH - slowly moved higher on a lack of attention. "Warm summer housing theme" under the radar.

TSLA - not falling apart. Profit taking. 265 is profit taking below.

UNH - above the 55-day MA. Leader of the pack - not going anywhere. 532.81 PT. 554 weekly PT

UPST - 31.20 weekly PT is done. It's there & still rising.

UBER - not worried.

URI - great breakout. follow through 715.34 weekly.

WMT - great trend

XHB - weekly TL breakout. Strongly above 55-day MA. (Within this ETF we have CARR, HD,

XLF - scoop has not reversed yet. Already delighted.

XLK - lightly red.

XLP - like it higher.

XLI - leading. great resumption. IYT, XLI. Oversold trucking & Oversold airlines.

BANKS

BFH - 44.52 breakout on weekly. Worth following up. Looks like a trend reversal - very nice as a long.

MS - trying to come back up

GS - great "scoop" pattern & moving higher. Doing fine.

STT - doing fine. Needs to breakout to cont higher.

Monday Sam Really Liked XPO, CAT, CSX & they still look great. RIO - VALE having a downtick.

things in TRUMP Crosshairs

AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL... not sure about NVDA ... but TSLA should not be in the crosshairs.

HOME BUILDER SPACE

JOE, TPH - like this.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.