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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/13/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

Yellen speaks at noon and there is a 30Y today at 1PM.
Craig posted his concern about TGA liquidity Fri into Mon.
Even if we get rejection up here in SPX + NDX - which wouldn't be a surprise given out extended on D/W timeframes - it is clear AI TECH is on its own planet.
75% new lows. Breadth breakdown in NYSE + net volume of selling under surface is clear.
Sector weakness in value ETFs: XLE, XLF, XME continue as defensives also stall/soften: XLU, XLV, XLP. Really, it is concentration risk in XLK, SMH which is propelling SPY + QQQ higher - UNTIL IT DOESN'T.
Semiconductor and AI theme still seem to be strong in the market, riding on the back of AVGO earnings
No volatility in the market, next level 11.17 then 10.60 in time  
Yields are weak while DXY trying to have an intraday bounce
QQQ needs below 476 for gapfill
IWM gap at 200.8 filling
EBAY &  ANET have nice swing long look breakout potential with AMZN
MU, WDC + STX continue higher as part of AI TECH ECOSYSTEM.
MNST + CELH continue lower as part of my beverage short ecosystem ;-)
SMCI best chase long > 800; TSLA best chase short < 186
IWM/NYSE best shorts on market selling under the surface.
AVGO 1638 pivot above that 1800
TSLA above 186 can see 195, 200 stop: 184 has to hold or else we fill gap to 180.5
NVDA approaching 130 next 135
MNST rolling steadily towards 48
CELH 59.89 short support below that could overshoot to 56.6
AFRM calls coming in with time, needs above 37.95 for 41
MSFT approaching 445 then 449 above 442
SMCI 834 approaching then 850, 874


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Michael's Trading Room Summary

JUNE 13, 2024 AM

PPI is softer; prices fell 0.02%. Fed still on "pause" mode.

MAG7 - large expansion bar daily; long wicks both sides of the candle from yesterday; gapped up this morning but still inside yesterdays range. Still bullish; still at highs.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - holding just above 275 daily; lower is better for SPX - stay below 280.

IWF:IWD - Another gap up again this morning - now above 2.07 daily; very bullish weekly.

INTERMARKET

T2104 - got some selling again. Sitting on weekly support; that needs to break. SIDEWAYS... Crazy Ivan.

T2123 - down a lot. Odd that we don't have more selling ...

WTI CRUDE - below 79.11 - kinda flat & inside yesterdays range. Bullish on the week and below 80.00$ round number.

GOLD (futures) - broke under yesterdays lows but recovered back into yesterdays range; sideways on the day now. Still holding above 2300;

Nat Gas - at 3.00 daily; still outside last weeks range but not by much. Possible H&S daily.

Bit Coin - tested 70k yesterday but fell away from it. below 68k this morning.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - violent moves yesterday - below 105 this morning. on the weekly we are still inside last weeks range. Lot's of Bounces; still holding onto the TL. At some point it will tire of that - but not today. Possible inverse H&S ... "IF / THEN" ... the better path is lower but right now we are just digesting. 105.40 then 105.80 (bullish) but breaking the TL & falling is "easier" and more likely.

USDJPY - been sideways for weeks; testing 157 this morning.

BONDS

TLT - gapped into 93 daily; hit 93.50 yesterday. Seen a lot of defense against 93; lots of resistance there. Still fighting.

TNX - 4.2% still the goal for the summer with 4.6% the goal into the EOY. This morning we are breaking out of last weeks range - falling lower. Premarket we are at 4.27% and fading. Still inside yesterdays range (barely).

ZN (10Y) - hitting overhead TL resistance; testing yesterdays highs. It's trying to reverse... making HH and HL...

ZT (2Y) - hitting overhead TL resistance; testing yesterdays highs. It's trying to reverse... making HH and HL...

INDEX

NYSE - Broke above 18100 briefly yesterday before falling to close around 18000. SOGGY. Breakdown under the surface.

SPX - New highs yesterday - 5447.25$. Hourly $5419 is the level to get & stay below. Not bearish until below 5340$. SPX - stay short under 5420$ hourly.

SPY - New highs yesterday - hitting 544.12. This morning we are at 542.67 premarket - a slight gap higher than yesterdays close.

IWM - Whack - a - Mole. Bullish if we close above the 10-week. 240 calls coming in for Aug

QQQ - New highs yesterday; gapped up higher & outside of yesterdays range this morning... blue sky. QQQ - keep it below 476 Hourly.

CHASE

AVGO 1638 pivot above that 1800

AFRM calls coming in with time, needs above 37.95 for 41

CELH 59.89 short support below that could overshoot to 56.6

IWM gap at 200.8 filling

MNST rolling steadily towards 48

MSFT approaching 445 then 449 above 442

NVDA approaching 130 next 135

QQQ needs below 476 for gapfill

SPX 5442 next, 5450 above 5425

SMCI 834 approaching then 850, 874

TSLA above 186 can see 195, 200 stop: 184 has to hold. TSLA stays below 184 then we come down to 180.5

HONORABLE MENTIONS

- Precious Metals not in play (& this is important as it is a "tell")... Still don't like banks... think they are done.

ANET - trying to break out weekly; hitting weekly bollinger highs - close above 308 for a cont move. Get & Stay above 329 daily.

ARM - hot; congrats.

ABBV - sitting above 164 weekly; not doing much. Trying to stay above the 200.

AVGO - stock split 10:1 announced yesterday. 1700 round number

AMD - quiet.

ADBE - just sitting here; Under the 55-day & 200-day MA. 433 area daily support; Still a short... even if it gets a little bounce... "short the rip" - get below 433 & then 424 & then 400 ...

AMZN - still looking for breakout above 188.

AFRM - still coming in - still trying.

AAPL - took a fade after news that Chat GPT is not getting paid. Extended from the 10-w but no turn spotted yet.

EBAY - hold 52.23 for a move higher.

CELH - coming into where it moved higher... broke under the 200-day MA.

CMG - bullish breakout weekly; looks bullish but extended.

CRSP - 67.68 is measured move; Nice "scoop" pattern. Needs to continue.

FSLR - get below 287

HIMS - great; still have 26.64 area.

HOOD - quiet.

JMIA - far from the mean; hitting 10.50 weekly resistance. Breaking 9.78 offers 8.63. Bullish;

MRVL - riding on the coat tails for the semi / AVGO flows.

MNST - it's a perfect short. Target is 200-day MA (around 48.00).

MSFT - doing awesome. Blue Sky's.

MU - blue sky's - don't short that!

MS - soggy; has not broken down yet.

NVAX - overshot into 100-week; danger now.

ORCL - looks fine.

PANW - bullish; 318 weekly taken out. Use 318 (on a close) - stay above that. (if that is too tight - use 310 as a stop).

TSLA - bullish engulfing; hold 184 daily / weekly. Great move higher. TSLA - 180.68 gap fill PT.

TM - broke the 200-day... continued short.

UBER - long above 69.30 - target 73.00. Having a tough time

XLF - still like it for a short;


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.