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#trading-room-summaries
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
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Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary
Just posted detailed #samanthas-market-thoughts on BLS revisions, and where I see Recession Risk Pulled Forward.
As for summary of charts of interest we covered this morning from my live trading room...
My fave sectors long: XLV, XLP, XLU and GDX with XHB - are continuing to work.
They may not be smooth, but they are strong.See TGT and WMT forward earnings calls, lifting up COST, TJX, BJ trend long faves.
Not to mention how lower yields help the above 5 sectors to outperform, relative to tech.I am growing even more bearish yields and oil, but I will admit I also have those pesky gap fills we must take out before I turn tail to short:
SPX 5658.88
QQQ 595.41
XLK 232.84
VIX did tag my 16.31 and got above - productive start - but expiration is today for VIX with Friday the monthly OpEx.
There will be time - unless of course yields crash and that is the risk of a complacent market.
I like XLF + C swing shorts as plays on this theme.
TJX, BJ, COST, WMT, TGT, AMZN were all in play as TGT announced earnings and sees consumer spending firm.
AMZN was a good chase to 182 PT where it meets daily trendline resistance and gap fill.
XBI is rising as yields fall.
Today MRK + RARE popped up above wkly resistance.
#kentons-corner-of-biopharma posted my RARE chart which he is also in (small).
FXY and TLT are bid and I suspect can stay a lot stronger than equity bulls would like.
It won't matter until it matters kinda thing.
In the same light, a falling USD is helping stocks move higher, until they realize why it's bearish.
And once the dollar stops falling (~100 monthly channel support) and turns higher, what will equities do?
Rithika's Chase Summary
Rithika chase summary notes
QQQ over 482 heading to 484
IWM over 212.50 is heading back to 215
SPX pushing into the 5639 gapfill, then 5658
TNX getting a bounce at the 3.8 level
DXY continuing to roll into the 100$ region
Growth to value still heading up, 2.00 is the key level to hold above
USDJPY coming back into 142
VIX pushing into the 16.21 area
AMZN above 180.32 can push into 183,184
If TGT sticks above 160 then 165, 171, 176 essential to stay above 156 to maintain trend
DLTR and DG having sympathy bounces on TGT news
JD gapping into second gap fill at 26 on news
HD pushes over 370.5 we can see 375
Siri holds over 3.5 can push into 4
ADI needs to break above 231 for 241 tag
PEP over 175.20 pushing into 177
Breadth turning slightly red so careful below the pivot levels
Michael's Trading Room Summary
AUG 21, 2024 AM
MAG7 - tagged 120 yesterday. Still above all the daily MA's. Just under the blue bar - 120.64 daily. Above is bullish.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio -
IWF:IWD - broke above 2.0 yesterday to close at 2.01. Rotation is moving higher in growth.
WTI CRUDE - Need to see this below 70 for part of the 3part needed triggers. Weak.
GOLD (futures) - weak back into 2500.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - 101 area - strongly defended before at this level.
USDJPY - busted - sideways lower
BONDS
TLT - at 98.50 hourly.
TNX - waiting on yields to crash. Need it below 3.8%.
10/2 spread - expecting inversion ...
INDEX
SPX - 5658 gap fill is where we are going. THIS WILL HIT - PERIOD.
QQQ - don't break 479... or we could see a shake n bake.
VIX - 15.92 hourly... have 16.31 area PT & then we'll see ... but ... falling below 14.29 is a "freaking market melt-up" ...
SVXY - expecting shake n bake.
CHASE
ADI needs to break above 231 fro 241 tag
AMZN - above 180.32 can push into 183,184
DXY continuing to roll into the 100$ region
HD - pushes over 370.5 we can see 375
IWM over 212.50 is heading back to 215
JD gapping into second gap fill at 26 on news
PEP over 175.20 pushing into 177
QQQ 480.14/479 pivot ... QQQ over 482 heading to 484
SIRI - if it holds over 3.5 can push into 4
SPX pushing into the 5639 gapfill, then 5658
TNX getting a bounce at the 3.8 level
TGT - If TGT sticks above 160 then 165, 171, 176 essential to stay above 156 to maintain trend
TSLA - if TSLA can get above 226 we can push to 230, 236, 242
USDJPY coming back into 142
TREND
BJ's - little cousin of COST ... multi-year Trend Trade ... OMG... looks ready to go again. Like it still.
TJX - "trend long" rec & still doing well. Spiky up here. Like it still.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Need 267 in jobless claims. Need TNX below 3.8%. Need oil below 70... this is the trifecta.
Home Builders are doing fine. Not falling apart. Recession won't trigger if this does not fall apart.
AMD - 200-W PT. Came back in.
ADI - get above 231 weekly to get into 241.
AAPL - run's up into gap fill. 232.33 daily - this is where AAPL will go.
AMZN - 182 is PT hourly.
CPB - like it. Boring.
COST - bullish w/ WMT & TGT. Right back up into it - still like it. (It's in XLP ... !!)
BA - don't like it. ewwwww. Horrible.
DKNG - gap fill - no surprise.
FUBO - likely a day traders play. Moving into a down slopping 200-day
KO - breakout. Looks great.
LOW - report yest. Like $HD better
JD - fell from WMT selling it's stake in the company.
NVDA - 126.88 w/ overshoot into 129.80 before we digest ... cheers. Now it's got 3 levels of support. shake n bake.
NFLX - don't break 691 hourly if your long.
NE - keeps making lows ... very broken.
NVS - 115... 113 wouldn't surprise. We don't short "blue skys" and new highs but still that fade wouldn't surprise.
OXY - 54 weekly likely where it gets defended. strongly.
PANW - shake n bake. Great PT - seeing digestion there.
PYPL - still like it.
ROST - ?
M - why..?
SIRI - buffet play. Get above 4.00 for any solid interest.
TGT - trying to get back above weekly 182; needs to get through there for a continuation higher. Looks firm.
TGT - 165.65 weekly resistance. 169 weekly is really good - likely hits it's head there. Anything above 157 hourly is important. Very good report & guidance. 169 "very soon" - expect to see profit taking at the open. Above 173 weekly it's very bullish but for now they are taking profit. Still trying to get through the massive inventory glut. They are "trying" to come back up. Encouraging.
TOL - home builders look great.
TSLA - 226 would be productive on weekly. It's trying
TSN - looks like it wants to break higher.
UFPT - poor options.
VRTX - still moving higher in the chop.
WMT - "if 80 then 100" comes to mind. Still like it.
XLP - extended. Solid mover. Helped by TGT. 182 weekly PT in time (swing). Has DLTR, DG, WMT, COST, BJ, AMZN.
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