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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
Ya Don't Always Get What You Waaant
MSFT had a big afterhours spike down to Jan 12th levels, wiping out SIX MONTHS of gains, but the invisible hand bid it back up - along with META + AMZN - helping QQQ stay clear of my $449 PT or SPX 5376.
For technicians, there is also a rule about revisiting those after/pre-market moves during RTH: MSFT $389.20 will print again. Not if, but when.
NVDA short into 100D yday worked great, so not a surprise it bounced there. Just needed AMD bouncing on earnings beat AND $134 double wkly support.
As I mentioned in my trading room: bullish above, bearish below that AMD 134 so don't look away. A fade down + thru 134 will bring 131 at 100W and a widening out of the BB bands on wkly. No bueno. For now: 153.49 DAILY resistance is the level to trade long>/short<.
INTERMARKET/MACRO
I did an intermarket review on my key breadth indicators - wherein I explained on MONTHLY timeframe what I was looking for to indicate "ONE MORE HIGH" thesis.
SPY + QQQ levels as well AFTER my growth:value ratio bases and moves higher. ;-)
But INTRADAY, my BXM showed a yuge bounce > 1901 into daily gap fill at 1913. That's the level to short against should FOMC disappoint or sellers just don't believe him as far as they can throw him.
VIX is all about 16.21 wkly line-in-sand: close > is bullish (bearish market); below is bearish (bullish market.
OVX continues to be bid and with it oil continues to be weak sauce so #STR.
10Y breaking 4.2% continues to work.
Higher yen + longer-duration bonds has been my baseline bet with 10Y yield breaking below 4.2% into 4% this summer. $USDJPY breaking 152.
Since the 10Y yield got rejected at 4.68%, clients know I have been steadfast in seeing it tag 4.0% this summer. I can see an overshoot to 3.88%.The 5Y yield is headed to 3.88% as well.
The biggest surprise will be the 30Y yield dropping to 4.05% from a high of 5.15% in Oct 2023.
WARM SUMMER HOUSING MARKET plays are still working great!!
LC tagged 200W at 12.58 + 13% on earnings.
XHB, TPH, JOE
RKT, COOP
RDFN, OPEN
CHASES:
MTCH - Archna's rec'd gapped higher on EPS and ran right into PT at 38.73. Still has descending 200D to contend with.
PYPL did great to hold 64 then run into 66.21 next wkly PT.
MSTR still looks good short BUT has earnings 8/1 with AMZN. No edge with earnings.
WBD continues to look good as swing long
Earnings after the close:
META
ALL, AIG + other insurance trend long faves
IR another trend long fave
TRADING ROOM OPEN 2-3 then MACRO-TO-MICRO POWER HOUR 4-5 with CRAIG SHAPIRO!!
Rithika chase summary notes:
TSLA 218 tag and bounce, again now 228 becomes the pivot above can test 235, 242 below 215, 209. Depends on fomc
QQQ 468 tagged, needs above for 471, 475 below we have 465.460
TLT over 94.53 pushes into 96.08
AAPL 220 resistance, 216 support, if it follows through we have 228,232 above below 216 we have 213, 210
if AMZN can clear the 55 day at 186.5 we can push into 189.68
PYPL on its way to 68, 70.6
AMD cant hold above 151 we come back down to 145, 139
SPX 5523 tagged, next is 5550, 5567.19 but careful on FOMC
VIX below 16 becomes bullish the market needs above 17.36 to be bullish
SMCI 745 tagged overshot to 667 target and bounced
MTCH chase into 38.73 but not likely to hold there; if fomc holds bullish can push to 41, 42.5, 45
LC tagged 200W at 12.58 + 13% on earnings. One of Sam's "Warm Summer Housing Market" calls.
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 31, 2024 AM
MAG7 - three days of sideways after dropping under 120 daily; closed again under the 50-day. Up in the premarket even with MSFT earnings disappointed investors. MACD still pointing lower. Still see 131 / 132
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - broke under 267.50 and is pointing towards Sam's level of 262.50 (lower is "better' for markets).
IWF:IWD - Closed under the 200-day MA yesterday; now under all the daily MA's except the 400-day. MACD still below zero & has not started to base or flatten out. itty bitty bounce - likely rejects. Small caps still not
INTERMARKET
T2100 - still at highs. Still good.
T2104 - still at highs
T2123 - new highs. "Lit" !!
T2126 - still at highs
WTI CRUDE - up 3% premarket on middle-east concerns. Back above 77.00$ daily. noise.
GOLD (futures) - 2425 has been an area of resistance (daily) and we are moving into it again this morning for a retest. kinda sideways.
Nat Gas - back to support.
Bit Coin - back to the 66k area after rejecting the 70k zone. Daily still making HH and HL's but on the bigger picture the weekly is still making LH and LL's. Needs to break 65.4k to make it back down.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - back into the 104 area this morning. got "eased" considerably. It's weakness relative to equities is helpful...
USDJPY - 150 daily - gave back half of the gains made in 2024. There was a 15 BPS rate decision announced over-night. JGB-10Y back into the 1.03% area but elevated from yesterdays close at the 1% level. Overshot the 50-week. Looking for a bounce & rejection & fade into 148 / 146 as next lower level.
FXY - 50-week MA tagged. Digesting that. 10/21 weekly trying to cross.
BONDS
TLT - popped into 94.50 (daily resistance) and still has 95.00$ weekly resistance. Think it is going higher.
FVX - 3.88% for the 5-year.
TNX - 4.10% today as we come into the open. Sam still see's 4.0% on the table w/ an overshoot into 3.88% as well.
2/10 spread - making moves from the excitement of the fed cut
INDEX
SPX - "tag your it" ... still have 5376 PT - shorts stay under 5508 for a chase - KEEP IT BELOW 5505. For longs - Get above 5529 for a move higher.
SPY 562 on big picture is a quarterly resistance , doesnt mean we sell off but is a level worth noting
IWM - sideways. 226 / 216 range. 212 support - use the 8-day MA as a level. Don't look bad.
BXM - big bounce again. Still have not broken.
QQQ - Did an alley-oop... but still have 449 PT. Not seeing a "snap back" rally - think we need 449 first - 468 needs to break
VIX - expecting volatility to get crushed. Has not even come back to the 21 yet. Needs to get / stay below 16.12 daily...
SVXY - nothing of size - nothing to confirm yet.
CHASE
AMZN - if amzn can clear the 55 day at 186.5 we can push into 189.68
AAPL 220 resistance, 216 support, if it follows through we have 228, 232 above below 216 we have 213, 210
AMD - if amd can push above 151 can go to 153.5 | AMD cant hold above 151 we come back down to 145, 139
BXM ( option flow) this morning rising higher meaning calls getting bid
MSTR after this bounce sam thinks will come down to 1590 area
NVDA 105 tagged, below can approach 97.40
PYPL on its way to 68, 70.6
QQQ 468 tagged, needs above for 471, 475 below we have 465 / 460... QQQ 471 tagged next 475, 480
SMCI 745 tagged overshot to 667 target and bounced
SPX over 5505 can push to 5530, 5550; below 5488 into 5450. SPX 5523 tagged, next is 5550, 5567.19 but careful on fomc
TLT over 94.53 pushes into 96.08
VIX below 16 becomes bullish the market needs above 17.36 to be bullish
HONORABLE MENTIONS
SEMI's having a good time this morning - bounce bounce bounce.
AMD - Boom. get / stay above 153.50... has a nice look. Kelt weekly support - Bollinger Weekly support. Really nice support. HAS TO STAY above 134. If that breaks - then 131 breaks and then the trend is broken. 151 weekly resistance... nice gap up but it is gapping into resistance. 153.50 looks viable.
AMZN - possible breakout on the table above 55-day MA.
ASML - a little bounce intraday
AMKR - a little bounce intraday
ACN - poised. better support.
CEG - has to get above 199.
CZR - up to the 100-day & coming back in.
COPX - broke the trend. Having a little counter trend bounce but - it's weak. Has not taken anything out - still not above the 55-day MA.
CI - started to move higher - looks good still.
CCJ - protect into the 41 area - still think it will do fine.
DASH - back above the 200-day. Getting above 110.50 is bullish.
EBAY - looks great - has earnings.
ENVX - looks good. - has earnings.
EOLX - no idea but had a great breakout. earnings.
GH - taking some market shares.
GEHC - bullish after earnings.
HUM - not safe for a long.
IBM - get back above 195 weekly.
IR - has been in a great move higher - started to breakout again - earnings after the close - healthy looking.
JCI - nice continuation.
KHC - not interesting... unless it gets above the 200-day MA. Hold above the 100-day - likely takes time.
LRCX - 50-week tag.
MRVL - above the 8-day MA.
MTCH - above 36.84 weekly - above the 200-day MA. 35 / 39 is the range.
MNRO - pushed through the 200-day.
META - earnings - hit 440 afterhours from MSFT earnings with AMZN ... META, AMZN, MSFT have an interesting chart... a afterhour or premarket hit likely gets hit again in regular trading hours.
MSTR - great rejection / breakdown... after the bounce it could consider lower - 1435 would be a great gap fill.
MSFT - 390 tagged intraday. Tagged the 50-week. It will go back there (390) - the bottom of the weekly bollinger band. Wiped out a year of profits on that earnings. It would be a really good place. Still see the 200-day MA coming in. Cloud Services slowing
NVDA - the 100-day was Sam's level to hit - O.M.G. - right there. Cheers if you got that. Boom. 8-day resistance (until it isn't)
PG - just above the 200-day.
PYPL - 64.20 weekly breakout - beauty. 4% follow-through is now clearly above - nice expansion.
PINS - broke the 200-day .. rolled over strongly. looks terrible to $30.86
RITM - 11.488 weekly support.
SMCI - bounced off the 200-day.
SWKS - getting rejected.
SBUX - hit the 100-day & coming back in. "no go" past the 21-week for now.
TSLA - has to get back above 237 to be bullish & Sam is just ... not.
VST - has to get above 83 to be bullish again.
WING - broke the 55-day again. See the theme...? very nice.
XLU - fine
XLV - fine - good.
Insurance - still making lots of money ...
ALL - looks good.
ALF - been in a strong trend.
AIG - been in a strong trend. Looks good.
GNW - choppy trend higher.
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