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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS REVIEW - WEEK ENDING AUGUST 11, 2024: WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE BOUNCE?!... was just posted to my #Intermarket-Analysis slack channel - video form.
Canvas slack post to follow so you have the physical charts if you want.
For now, I am bearish yields, oil, equities - big picture - but that doesn't mean...
SPX can't continue higher into gap fill at 5639 (once above 5448 breakdown retest, then 5524, 5555), or
QQQ won't go tag 493 daily gap fill (once above 465.75, 479, 486.86)
As VIX continues to fall back into 10W support at 21.21 as SVXY continues its 61.8 Fib Retracement on Wk back to 54.45But all bets are of if 10Y yield breaks 3.8% on wkly, crude breaks 70 on wkly, and USDJPY breaks 142 on wkly.
Rumors of Ceasefire negotiations for Gaza ... would be bullish USD ... if it happens.
Add to that, any USD move higher with yields lower is bearish equities and commodities.
Silver is not immune and gold is in distribution.
Growth rotation is still curling up from my growth:value ratio but from oversold. By definition that means #STR (short the rip). But we have not top to short, yet.
QQQ + NYFANG have made it back to their 10W! Bullish above; Bearish below.
Just be careful on shake-n-bake this week as Japan's parliament meets with BOJ tonight; US retail sales Thursday with Jobless Claims; VIX expiry is today and monthly OpEx Friday. We could very well see volatility once againBitcoin proxies continue to look bad even if BTCUSD hasn't rolled back over.
XLP, XLV, XLU are still best-of-breed safety plays.WARM SUMMER HOUSING MARKET call is still in play, as 30Y fixed mortgage falls further.
Will update my macro-to-micro but suffice it to say: RKT is still bid with bonds.Careful on GLD breaking 225
Chase short GOOLG is working into 200D PT
BABA has EPS Thursday but I still suspect lower before higher. (edited)Alexander's BioPharma plays are still working great like VRNA, ABBV, UNH, HCA, THC... follow his channel for active levels!!
Swing Long Faves I still like:
AMT, EBAY, FIS
Trend Long Faves I still like:
PGR, AJG, ALL
Most impressive Swing Long SAVES last week - with bullish "god candles": PLTR, NU, LLY
As such, LLY is still TREND LONG & PLTR is still SWING LONG, so if you got stopped out, don't feel bad. They were hugely defended and it happens.Value Swing Long Faves - MMM, IP, CPB - still look good.
I don't trust banks but they haven't broken enough to rec'd swing short.
I don't trust WSM, ANF, DKS but they haven't broken enough to rec'd swing short.
INTC + BABA are at book value! But stock hasn't done anything in price to be deemed 'safe'.New 52W or ATH Trend Long Breakouts:
RACE, AU, AZN, ICE, MCO + last but not least, chickens! PPC.
Extended Defense contractors: LMT, RTX, GD - so if we do get peace talks, expect some profit taking.
MACRO-TO-MICRO POWER HOUR WITH CRAIG AT 4PM ET!!!Rithika chase summary notes:
SPX 5447, can push into 5488 and get rejected there 5447 becomes your pivot for lower
AMD 144 hit premarket 139.85 becomes your support needs to stay above to base and push higher, below we comes back to 137,135
QQQ has pushed into the 50% retracement of the prior high 460 gapfill becomes our pivot now
DXY getting more weakness into 101
Growth to value still bouncing, hard to short against this backdrop
GOOGL breaks 160 it likely comes down to 154; needs to break and stay below support to continue down
DIA 401 is next above 396
BABA 79.66 is support, below if we fail we come back down to 78, 76.9
LLY bouncing into 938.38
ARM needs to base over 126.59 to move higher into 133, 136 back to its previous measured move
When the RSI in the summation index breaks 50 sam thinks spy will have more selling and is on the lookout for it
Michael's Trading Room Summary
AUG 14, 2024 AM
Expecting CPI to continue to fall. Expecting a 50BP cut in Sept "or else" we sell off & force a cut after Sept.
MAG7 - MACD has not crossed yet but that cross is likely. Large move yesterday put us right into the 20-day MA and just under the 50-day MA.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Disconnected again from "markets" - we dropped back below 250 while the markets rallied yesterday.
IWF:IWD - MACD has crossed but is still below the zero line. Sam said yesterday this was "almost back to the 1.996 risk area & likely hits it's head there" ... we are there this morning. Growth in control & moving higher. Rotation still in play.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - tried a breakout of last weeks range (higher) but that failed. Still within last weeks levels.
T2104 - light "net buying" has given us a breakout of last weeks range ... weak.
T2123 - still within last weeks range. Stochastic faded below the weekly 70 level.
T2126 - tried a breakout of last weeks range (higher) but that failed. Still within last weeks levels.
WTI CRUDE - back under 79.11 daily; the weekly resistance held.
GOLD (futures) - 2480 resistance holding - but price is right there holding that high range area.
Nat Gas - the reversal off the lows last week is holding - but still under 2.30 in premarket trading.
Bit Coin - Still in a range - under 63k. Up 1% premarket. Proxies are also up (RIOT, MARA, COIN, HUT, HIVE, HOOD, MSTR). MACD needs back above - and it would be very bullish above .
FX
Dollar (DXY) - dropped under 102.50 this morning on CPI news. 102 daily support.
USDJPY - 5th day sideways in a tight range; starting to squeeze . Get above $148 for a higher move.
BONDS
TLT - Expect bonds to continue to have the edge; 97.50 tested premarket. 100 daily is resistance.
TNX - Expect continued weakness. Tagged 3.66% now in Aug... but still below 4.0%.
10 / 2 Spread - inverting again on the data this morning. Chopping under the zero line.
INDEX
NYFANG - Morning Star reversal (W) but the week is not over. Could reject and break under the current week's open. Still above the 200-day. The 10/21 has not rolled over yet so the trend is not busted.
SPX - $4745 is price target for closing at the EOY. $4300 likely tagged this year. coming into 5447 - could push into the TL.
SPY - 545 likely (overshoot of weekly) in the next few days
IWM - hitting 10(W) ...
DIA - 401PT would be next.
QQQ - get / stay above the 10(W) is bullish. Hitting the 55-day MA. 466(W) is the level to get / stay above. 449 is still the "big level" and we'd need to break / get below that for a move lower.
VIX - falling an ugly death. under 19.29 the market is bullish... period.
VVIX - still above the 10(W).
SVXY - still under the 200day MA. 52.83 is the target.
CHASE
AMD 144 hit premarket 139.85 becomes your support needs to stay above to base and push higher, below we comes back to 137,135
DXY getting more weakness
DIA 401 is next
GOOGL breaks 160 it likely comes down to 154; needs to break and stay below support to continue down
QQQ has pushed into the 50% retracement of the prior high
SPX 5447, can push into 5488 and get rejected there 5447 becomes your pivot for lower
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AMT - "has a look" - weekly support needs to hold.
AMD - digesting the 21... not drama yet.
CRWD - coming off the 200 MA
$C - broken trade. Massive broken trade. Does not look good.
COIN - back at the 200-day.. lots of distribution.
DB - broken trade. Massive broken trade. Does not look good.
DELL - back into the fifty
FIS - looks good.
FTNT - obviously earnings.
GLD - digesting.
GS - has not broken trend.
GSK - still more risk.
GIS - stay above weekly 70.00$
HOOD - starting to break.
HALO - firmly in play.
JPM - has not broken trend.
GOOGL - anti-trust news knocked it lower - weakness but has not faded into the 50(W). 200(D) still looks like it wants that PT. Has to cont by breaking 159.57 hourly for a move into 154 area.
LLY - stunning. Bouncing into 945 daily (or 938 daily).
MO - great move higher on the TL break.
MMM - in a chop zone.
NE - looks broken.
NVS - choppy. No options... so hold your nose.
NVDA - the rally continues in premarket trading; tested 118.50 before the bell. Has not broken down premarket but there is profit taking. 116 is the level to stay above (W) or 115.50 (D) to get back to the TL for earnings. Breaking 116.53 as profit taking increases.
OKE - breakout
RMD - 218 weekly resistance is getting tested. Doing well.
SE - doing well. positive into 74.68 - should digest here (overshoot possible into 81.52) before pulling back ... if 80 then 100... looks great.
SMH - back into monthly resistance; needs to get above / stay above to be safe.
SBUX - 89 weekly as short PT if that 93.50 fails to hold.
SLV - 24.51 (W) is level to hold; break that for a move $1.00 lower.
SU - looks productive above weekly 40.81 breakout.
TSLA- flat; uneventful.
VRNA - broke above 26.44 weekly resistance.
XLF - above the 55-day MA. 42.00$ weekly support. 42.35 hourly support. Staying above 42.00$ with 42.93 as chase PT. Insurance giving it a lift.
DEFENSE CONTRACTORS = Trend Breakouts
INSURANCE = breakouts
ENERGY = SU and OKE
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 8/14/24