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SEPT 3, 2024 AM
MAG7 - Daily is range bound; MACD still under the zero line.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio -
IWF:IWD - Fell into 1.94 last week; holding there. MACD stayed under the zero line and has started to see a MACD/signal line cross down. Sideways. Digesting the 1.95 area.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - soggy
T2104 - slight selling.
T2123 - strong
T2126 - soggy
WTI CRUDE - above the daily / weekly 70.00$ support; wide wedge is getting more narrow. Still "Short the Rip." There was plenty of "crude threat" issues over the long weekend & yet there was no spike in crude. So ... while we need a macro trigger ... it isn't crude. Looking to break 70 & test 50.00$. Needs to "Stay Below" 70$.
GOLD (futures) - back into the 25k breakout area.
Bit Coin - still under 60k daily resistance. Wide range on weekly. still see a possible 50k tag.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - Broke outside of Friday's range - but fell back into the range again. Still under 102; Hitting $100.20 expected. The bounce last week just looks like a minor bounce from last weeks data.
USDJPY - 4 green days - the streak was broken today with a red move back into 146 area. Broke outside of last weeks range but quickly came back in. the JGB-10Y broke outside of Friday's range and continues to press higher (now at 0.92%). Not expecting the BOJ to hike. Highly suspect of that. It would be very bearish if they do.
BONDS
TLT - Closed at Friday's lows - popped up into 97 this morning. Still see 101 / 102 area.
TNX - tapped 3.92% and fell back in again; testing Friday's mid-point now. Could see impact from crude. Fighting above 3.8%
ZN (10Y) - large gap up - outside of Thursday & Friday levels. Still in a range on weekly. (Weekly looks like a bull pennant).
ZT (2Y) - large gap up - outside of Thursday & Friday levels. Still in a range on weekly (barely).
INDEX
NYSE - Tues - Fri last week was a strong push (from 17.6K into 19.2K). Big weekly breakout closed at the highs of the week.
SPX - closed at 5650 area. 5670 is yearly resistance. 5658 still PT. Short into 5555 is a nice area for a bounce too
SPY - It's just been chop. Shake n Bake. Impressive if we can break 555; would be a strong signal.
IWM - Outside of last weeks price; testing 115 this morning. Lower High on weekly.
DIA - still strongest.
QQQ - 496 PT still. Shake n Bake. Not bearish the Q's until that gap fills. Has to break 468 area to keep going lower. 465.11 is the daily level.
VIX - +17$ is where it looks to be going.
SVXY - intraday it's extended & broken. 50.84 weekly in focus. (or 50.86 daily). Right now - that is the focus.
BXM - needs to break last weeks lows. Needs to "really" roll over.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AMD - under the 55 & 200-day MA. 143.25 hourly broke. 140.91 gap fill lower PT.
AAPL - still has unfinished business. Has not broken it's trend.
AMZN - trend reversal. No real energy there.
ANF - 10/21 weekly crossover. Expecting it to give sway. Suspect of this one.
ADBE - 585.35 resistance - think it's done for now.
AMZN - coming back to rest at 176 daily level. Still snaking around the 200-day MA. No directional conviction.
BMY - still above the 200-day MA.
BBIO - nice pop.
BJ - careful "just because"
BAC - back above the 55-day MA... still above the 200-day.
CAH - doing great.
CNC - doing well. trying to come up.
CAVA - 114 hourly. May get a good short - under 104.84 ... or even just getting into that level first.
CSX - 5 year bargain agreement was announced ... not exciting it seems.
COST - hit 920 daily / weekly & paused.
DELL - careful with this - sideways.
ELF - back into 140 area.
ENPH - at the 200-day.
GOOGL - has a trend breakdown. Important!
INTC - still not able to move much yet.
IR - needs to keep 84.
MRVL - keep it above 70.
MBB - oh goodness.
NFLX - no trend reversal here at all. 691 weekly support.
NVDA - down in 116 area - has to get back above that for any bullish sense. Gap Fill at 109.69 area. Filled the upside gaps - now working on it's downside gaps. Opening under 115.82 weekly level gives us a "weekly bearish reversal" - lots of call selling this morning. Another Gap fill at 110.38. Has not broken trend. NVDA - 110.08 hourly short PT. "close enough" ... 110.10$ ... that is the gap to focus on. At some point this will stabilize & rise to close the overhead gap ... but not yet.
SMCI - $357 still the downside target (in time). Right now - bounce perfect off the 428.69 daily level & a rally into resistance (hitting the 3-day MA).
SMH - 226 hourly short PT. Semi's look very weak still. Weekly gap down is very negative. 227 hourly is support. SMH - 227.13 is the level
$T - breakout continues to move higher.
TSLA - kinda trying.
TWLO - shocked that it looks good on monthly as a bottom fishing play.
$U - popped into 18.00$ daily.
UNP - still bullish.
$X - back to 36.00$ ... it's a political football. Not bullish or bearish on it. No interest.
VLO - not ready.
VZ - moving higher with $T.
Unbroken Trend (weekly)
AAPL
NFLX
NVDA
META
broken trend (weekly)
MSFT
GOOGL
AMZN
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