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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/21/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM:
Early LAST WEEK, I called for $SPX $5500 and NVDA $138 by OpEx.
THEN during my live trading room Thursday - as BOTH CALLS happened - I made two more trading calls:
1. $NVDA would pull back to tag $130 - it hit.
2. $NVDA would pullback 10% from the gap up print at $140.75 by Friday.
A 10% pull would bring us $126.67. We printed $126.66 premarket.
So now that we see PROFIT TAKING in Semi's, we still must see follow through:
QQQ < 479 wkly support is bearish to 468
But we may have to wait until Monday.
MU was a star short callout from 157.54 STOP to 21D PT at 135.85. HIT
Now I wouldn't be surprised if this digests sideways on wkly above its 55D until we have a reason for semis to break trend.
With $5.5T in notional value coming off the board AND NVDA call delta expiring today - largest single stock opex evah - I would have expected dealers to sell out of their stocks today (Like we had with SMCI in Feb OpEx for ex), but today is also XLK REBALANCE day so there is a ton of buying of NVDA. That's ballast. But, I wouldn't be surprised if next week we see more shake-n-bake for NVDA down to its 21D around 120. Other semis to follow.
Another sector I've warned about is Bitcoin breaking $65K support. Just seeing weakness to 57,500 for now. Nothing big.
But one sector roll-over does have me worried: gold, silver, miners. I know the trend is still bullish but I am really feeling (gut instincts on this one), precious metals is about to take a header. Maybe nothing.
But IF/WHEN the 10Y breaks 4.2% and the USD gets above $160.20, I think we will see gold fall hard. Later it will get defended, but this is what I see/feel heading into the weekend.
OK, other than that, on stock side:
GILD - absolute beast on HIV data/contracts and that August financed call spread is now 2.70 (from near scratch). Just wow.
TSLA is holding > 177 wkly support and looks fine for higher next week.
AMZN will be next week's TOTW. Looks stunning when/if it breaks 188 on WKLY CLOSE. It is so close.
PLTR on the other hand got dumped on a downgrade. NEEDS to get/stay > 25.20 WKLY CLOSE as next trigger long.
MCD + CSCO surprise bounces off key wkly support. Both look intent on staying above wkly lows.
XLV, XLP, XLU are the DEFENSIVE trades that have done nothing wrong.
My growth-to-value ration is indeed rolling over on daily as warned yday late morning, but only means we have short-term PROFIT TAKING in AI TECH not a trend reversal. It could be MONTHS before a top is formed/confirmed. Pace Yourself.
Big Picture, I detailed my macro thoughts in my #samantha-market-thoughts channel and my Intermarket Analysis - both video review & post - in my #intermarket-analysis channel:
Bullish Complacency Amidst Die-Vergences.
In a nutshell, I have my sincere doubts that the rally will 'broaden out'.


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JUNE 21, 2024 AM

MAG7 - sideways for days; still above the 10-day MA but touched it yesterday.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - tested 280 again yesterday but it held as resistance. holding above 277

IWF:IWD - Significant reversal off the highs yesterday; closed below Monday's gapped up open. Still bullish; still above the 10-day MA. Sam warned before noon that it was starting to turn. Reversion to the mean in Growth - so congrats on the QQQ puts.

WTI CRUDE - nice follow-through on the week; looks like price wants to breakout of yesterday's high;

GOLD (futures) - Back to the 50-day MA. Under the 10 & 20-day MA’s. Caution - Careful.

Bit Coin - starting to falter; breaking 65k w/ PT into 60k and 57.5k. Run the BTC proxies short.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - a little jiggle; still bullish into 106. Looks kinda busy. Getting above 105.80 won't be easy (but it can do it).... 106.20 is the area of resistance to focus on.

USDJPY - 160 PT

USDCNH - doesn't want to be lft behind.

BONDS

TLT - quiet

TNX - Still not expecting the rally to broaden out into other equities ... the MAG7 dominant thesis holds. Chop Mess - think 4.2% gives way. Below 4.2 & above 106.20 next week ... we could see more volatility.

INDEX

SPX - everyone is still long this market; yesterday was nothing & did not change anything in that regard. 5500 resistance. Headed into 5447 hourly

SPY - Not seeing a break of the trend (yet). 541 in time looks good.

IWM - Resting on the 100-day.

QQQ - break of 479 offers more volatility short term. Looking for the TECH / Semi melt-up reversion. Cradle formation - showing weakness. Needs to break 479 PT to see more weakness. Next PT 468. If we open below 479 weekly next week we could see a fade into 460 & that would not break the trend.

VIX - still under 14.00$

SVXY - back above 60.00 daily and pressing into the 10-day from below. Back above the 20-day MA.

Chase

AMZN needs to hold above 188 for a follow through higher

FSLR above 262 next is 265,267

NVDA 130 put lottos cha Ching… now gap filled at 125 careful here. Cause gap at 130 can get filled on options expiration. NVDA if below 126 has room to 121, above has gapfill to 130

NFLX 690 tag and digesting

QQQ needs below 479 for a real short, may not happen today

SPRT hold above 162 into 175, 180

TSLA long looks good, remains in digestion ideal for 186 break, but still like it for a push above 177

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AMD - Weakness in Chips. Great call-out yesterday.

AAPL - digesting.

AMZN - Looks like they are gunning for this next. 100-day & 55-day MA's are moving higher. Needs to break 188 to go higher. News about selling two priced versions of their AI "Alexa"

AVGO - sees resistance weekly. a short would need to take out 1680 hourly for a short lower.

BABA - no interest.

DELL - that was wow awesome. Tag your it - came back in.

ENPH - choppy; mostly sideways. Above the 200-day.

GLD - shake n bake. Making higher lows... still worried about gold & Silver.

GILD - when it starts to move - it MOVES WAY TOO FAST. 74 dollar (200-day MA) PT. Hope you took it w/ a financed call spread that Sam offered yesterday. Stunning Mover.

IRM - profit taking.

KWEB - no interest.

MSFT - firm.

MREO - still in trend after shake n bake.

MCD - 200-day MA pt.

MU - huge shake n bake ... on the 21-day MA. Awesome.

NFLX - resting.

NKE - upgraded yesterday.

NVDA - Sam & Spot Gamma called out 130 PT and Spot Gamma now is calling for 120 PT. Weakness in Chips. 126.84 support hourly. 125.59 weekly / daiy support. Expecting a bounce into 128 area.

PENN - had news yesterday; popped into 200-day

QCOM - profit taking.

SPR - $BA merger news.

SNOW - 124.35 weekly support. if that holds we could see a reversal into 142 into Aug 2024 (maybe 144 as an overshoot).

SMH - in profit taking w/ bearish engulfing. 256 PT.

SLV - careful

SRPT - jumped 30% after news. weekly breakout in focus.

TSLA - just needs to hold 177 this week.

XLK - rebalance.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.