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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
Stagflationary Recession - Will Trend
Three Key Points:
1. Macro data finally got the market's attention where bad news is bad news@
US ISM Manufacturing is in contraction (46.8) with employment (43.4) while Prices Paid is expanding (51.8 prior to 52.9). This is the definition of stagflation.
2. Bonds are bid for several reasons, of which Iran escalation is but a small part.
Productivity expanded to 2.3% from 1.8% prior while Wages are falling YoY. Bonds love that. But the key reason is that the ENTIRITY OF THE CURVE is falling - from the 13W to the 30Y - AS PREDICTED
3. My firm bet that the CONCENTRATION RISK DESRISKING is still in play is, well, in play!!
And we really need my GROWTH:VALUE ratio to base and move higher before it is safe to bet long for more than an intraday trade.
As I mentioned in #chase channel:
"SPY & SPX update - depends on your timeframe... but 5375.95 gap hasn't filled yet
Warned yday despite the massive 55D bounce that the daily bollinger bands are expanding lower so #STR until my growth:value bases and moves higher.
AND QQQ HASN'T TAGGED 449 YET.
I have no edge into AAPL + AMZN earnings after hours today, or Friday morning's non-farm payroll, but if covering short duration shorts, maybe leave a runner Yields crashed and VIX hasn't tagged my 20 PT yet either."
Big moves lower haven't even really triggered in NIKK (EWJ) or DAX (EWJ).
Still lots of ways to protect from YEN and BOND spike.
SWING LONG FAVES:
EOLS (drug mfg) came back from oversold with KHC (love them staples)
HD still slow productive.
EBAY nice beat and breakout > 55 wkly resistance!
ICE continued breakout in ATH
CHASES were more than productive as my bet was high probability we would see lower tech prices - From META rejection at 523 to AMD into 131, not to mention catching IWM $10 move south!
MSTR also worked perfectly into PT of 1490 before reporting afterhours ;-)
Michael's Trading Room Summary
AUG 1, 2024 AM
MAG7 - broke above the 50-day MA yesterday but closed at that MA ... this morning in early trading we have gapped above it - also gapped above the 10-day MA and we are hitting the 20-day MA.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Firmly below the 262.50 level ... closed below it.
IWF:IWD - was under the 200-day MA this week - but has climbed back above it in a itty bitty bounce - tagged 1.97 this morning in early trading.
INTERMARKET
T2123 - softened at the measured move - shake n bake.
WTI CRUDE - middle-east drama continues to give this some juice - back above 78$ daily but still in a range over-all.
GOLD (futures) - 2450 tested in premarket trading - after 2 big move days this seems like it is taking a break (still green on the day today).
Nat Gas - more than 2% gains this morning - still inside yesterdays range after that big red day.
Bit Coin - 64k supportive still - tested that level and is holding the line. Petered out here.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - still under $104.50 daily; still above 104 so in the chop.
USDJPY - JGB-10Y still chopping sideways at 1.03% area. USDJPY tagged 150 area & is getting a itty bitty bounce.
FXY - Literally beauty. Should digest here.
BONDS
TYX - tagged the lower TL ...
FVX - 3.85% (100-week) TL tagged. 3.88 % passed in hourly chart
TLT - broke above 95 premarket - that is a gap above the weekly resistance. Could make it "near" 100...
TNX - broke the 4% level in trading today. Why are small caps not enjoying this breakdown? This is a worry... disinflation impulse. Not safe - could see a little bounce & then a continued fade into 3.88%
2/10 spread - was strongly steepened into FOMC - now petering out. Looking for a flattener.
INDEX
NYSE - after setting new highs on the year - pulled back under 18.8k - still outside the daily / weekly wedge.
SPX - 5452.75... 5375 as a lotto into next week for the short side play.
SPY - 553.70 is gap fill daily.
IWM - wicked. Very Bullish. 212 breakout - "anything above 212" . Literally. Has higher levels to go. Stay below 221.65 for shorts - came back to 220.50 area hourly already.
QQQ - Monthly (red) doji. If we reject 479 then it puts the 200-day MA into focus. Literally. Pushing into TL from below. Derisking. Shorts keep it below 479 for that 449 short PT.
VIX - 16.12 weekly. Stay above that ... we have volatility risk.
TAIL - looks bullish - we have tail risk.
BXM - blew up higher Tues & has stayed high. Has not fallen apart.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AMD - 131 weekly. Could go all the way down to 100 (the breakout level).
AMZN - pushed into weekly resistance. Looks very bullish. Earnings after the close - no edge.
ARM - earnings. Under the 55-day. Support at the 21-week. Could see a move into the 30-week. Under the 100-day MA. In time - you have the 200-day MA.
APA - eh. nope.
APO - too choppy
BAC - Literally nasty. Broke the 55-day. Has troubles. Keep it below 40.34 on a close (weekly) Literally
BTU - earnings. Has to get above the 200-day MA.
BA - waste of time.
CSX - earnings coming. Looks productive.
CVNA - hitting 155 hourly. Digesting 135 monthly. Still looks in play. CVNA - strong. Beauty. Upgraded this morning.
CROX - nearing the 200-day MA.
CI - bouncing off the 200-day.
DIS - that's it - Literally not safe.
DDOG - nope.
EOLS - productive.
EWG - solid breakdown.
EWJ - same as $TM - just hasnt' followed yet. looks ready to break down.
EXAS - fine.
ETN - coming back down. Kinda broken.
ENVX - not doing anything.
EBAY - like it ... literally. Looks good. 58 weekly PT - now that it broke out of 55 weekly. Above 55 is continuation breakout - but AMZN earnings are a threat to this.
INTC - lay-offs.
GH - very fine.
HSY - coming off the btm ... nice
KHC - great. Up to the 200-day MA. Processing it.
KRE - coming back - tag your it.
IR - didn't fall apart. Looks like it is coming in for 89$ weekly. Could fall apart
JD - no trust. Sell the bounces in the china plays.
LRCX - passed the 200-day now. 4 weeks red into the 50-week MA.
LNC - short covering. wow - strong pop. Literally slowly moving higher.
MET - Literally recovered nicely.
MBLY - nasty
MTCH - above the 50-week ... 38.73 daily is digesting.
MRNA - gapped under the 200-day. eh - no excitement
MGM - no breakout.
META - above 517 premarket. Stay above 514 daily. 523.55 if your chasing. if we get strong selling - that is likely where it would be. META - 523.55 weekly is the level it has to get through - for bullish continuation. Until then - that is resistance. Good job - key level is where it's losing it's steam.
MSFT - Get below 425.70 hourly for a short play.
NVDA - gaps to fill lower; Below the 21-day is productive. 116 is the short trigger. Closing below 115.82 this week would be a great tell ...
NOW - delighted at earnings.
NET - delighted at earnings.
NKE - - that's it - Literally not safe.
PDD - taking a while. Still a great break-down. Still see lower on the table.
PEGA - testing weekly breakout - above 67 is bullish but it's likely a waste of time.
QCOM - it's working - had earnings. Looks like $ARM - could see 200-day ... looks very nice into that.
RCL - has not broke down.
RIVN - earnings next week. AMZN owns 17%. shallow pullback to the 50-week. Above the 200-day but that 200-day needs to flatten and turn higher.
RACE - sideways. 430 weekly resistance. - has to get / stay above that weekly resistance.
RSI - weekly scoop pattern - earnings delight. 12 weekly resistance. Thin. Stay above the IPO high (10.42$). Gapped above - nice looking chart.
SBUX - that's it - Literally not safe.
SOFI - not ready.
SMH - 232 weekly digest. 239 daily digest. Coming back into the underside of the TL. Monthly bearish engulfing ... bears watching.
SHAK - failed.
SAVA - held that 10.00$ ... amazing continuation. Congrats.
TSLA - a lot of chop this morning. has not done anything - looks weak. 224.22 hourly & then we'll see.
TM - not so great. going down
UNH - beauty.
TDOC - out of favor. A mess.
WCN - has not broken down.
WDC - base at 50-week ... it's working - careful
XLV - bid.
XPO - get above 122 weekly
XLF - clearly a breakout (weekly).
Defense names all doing great
GD
LMT
RTX
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