Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 1/23/25
With #LTR Notes - by Samantha, Rithika and Mikey
Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 1/23/25
Sorry for delay in posting! After my mid-afternoon Webinar with SpotGamma, I had to run out - after running out of time to post these! In a nutshell…
Above SPX 6053 is bullish and below is not. McElligott of Nomura suggested via MarketWatch what we already feel: A potential melt-up for markets is afoot. Unless, as I contend, we get a macro trigger to interrupt the flows. BOJ would be that trigger IF they price in more than an expected 25bp (dovish) hike. That is not my baseline bet, but it does bear watching because IF IF IF Ueda at tonight’s Press Conference/BOJ decision pushes out a priced-in hike until March … then JPY & US 10Y BONDS fall hard, pushing higher US 10Y yield, dragging USD with it, serving as headwind to this market advance. Here are the scenarios:
If they are gonna hike - 90% chance of 25bp - its mostly priced in, so not a durable market move in equities or bonds but can cause a knee-jerk reaction in the short term which is bearish US equities.
If BOJ has a hawkish hike of 50bp, JPY will be stronger with bonds so 10Y yield falls back to its 10W, briefly supporting equities initially, but then likely reverses lower as US-JP spread falls.
And if BOJ doesn’t hike at all, JPY and US 10Y bonds will get crushed, spiking US yields and dollar causing equities to sell-off.
Likely they hike 25bp and market is fine into FOMC where Fed pauses before we learn how Bessent will deal with QRA Feb 2 & 5th.
Trade Ideas/Updates: