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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

MACRO MARKET THOUGHTSI did a rant pre-market and toward the end with a review of my intermarket analysis.
In a nutshell:
I make my living on market timing, in large part spotting sector rotation for durable themes.
THIS "rotation" - that I timed with precision - is not your typical rotation.
The Russell 2000’s aggregate market value was $2.6 trillion as of June 30 - less than AAPLs market cap.
The S&P 500's aggregate market cap was $45.84 trillion as of July 8. It fell to $45.318 trillion July 25. That's a start.
The MAG7, however, lost $2 TRILLION in market cap in 10 days! This money did not 'rotate' into IWM.
Some money went there for sure.
Some hedge funds covered some shorts for sure.
But MOST OF THAT MONEY JUST LEFT.
This is DISTRIBUTION.
Early still, but I see this as A TOPPING pattern of mean-reversion. Clients know my my growth/value ratio charts. In particular, my RSP:SPY at extremely oversold/overbought levels in the process of reverting higher from below 2003 lows. We haven't even made it to 2009 lows let alone 2020 Covid lows.
Lots of room.
For now, yes, NDX + SPX can rally back up to trap complacent bulls (post FOMC/QRA), but it will be at risk as:
Unemployment Rate moves > 4.2%
10Y yield < 4.2%
2Y yield falls < 4.2%
Yen strengthens
And derisking of MAG7 concentration risk continues.
"One More High" is high probability, but with Global Central Banks now cutting rates as demand for credit falls, we are on the cusp of pulling forward recession risk from 2025.
And with the US 10 year yield 100 basis points below the Fed Funds Rate, Fed is behind the curve.
I continue to expect the narrative to switch from inflation to deflation into year-end.
MICRO MARKET THOUGHTS
Sector outperformance continues in Homebuilders, Mortgage, Insurance, Defense Contractors, Healthcare, Staples, Utilities. READ: SAFETY
QQQ bounce in play but 449 is still baseline bet before a more durable short-term bottom is in play to time a move higher into daily gaps left since July 10th pullback.
SPX bounce but 5375.95 is still PT short for recent drama.
With that, I still see VIX headed to 20.
Best guess: by FOMC/QRA Wed and NFP Fri.
SWINGS:
Fave XLV plays long of GILD, ABBV, AMGN, UNH - look great.
HUM has EPS 7/31 + could follow. CNC started today!
Fave XAR plays of RTX, LMT, GD now NOC - very strong
Fave BioPharma plays long of VKTX, VRNA, GH - doing well
Fave "Warm Summer Housing Market" plays long - LC, RKT, TPH, XHB, JOE, COOP - still fab. Even VNO starting to trigger > 29.46
SAFETY STILL PAYING: XAR, XLP, XLV, XLU, GDX
CHASES:
SPX into 5479.55
QQQ into 468
VIX into 8D near 16
VLO chase off 200D at 145 yday still doing fine into 160 PT
TRENDS:
Fave TREND long faves: ICE, SHW, BRKB now HIG, BKR, CARR
COST, ANF, WCN big topping patterns on Wkly
MMM, BMY, CHTR, MHK big bottom fishing patterns on Wkly from earnings, but even before EPS
Final Words:
Banks haven't fallen so market will stay bid.
Tech will get bought but careful as I still see lower levels tested before better positioning for swing long tech into "One More High"
Then, lots of room for rotation into end of year...


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JULY 26, 2024 AM

PCE - was in line.

MAG7 - firmy under 50-day MA but still above 100-day MA.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Below 275 again.

IWF:IWD - tagged Sam's 1.95 level and overshot it. Would expect a bounce to come in but with the MACD still pointing lower there is no conviction in that bounce. Think we could get "one more" high.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - new highs

T2104 - getting extended.

T2123 - firm - new highs. very firm.

WTI CRUDE - broke 77 daily & testing 76.50 daily support.

GOLD (futures) - up 1% today in trading.

Bit Coin - has support; not a lot of energy. Needs to get above 70k.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - continues to move sideways around 104.50 / 104 area daily.

USDJPY - 152 monthly support holding (for now).

FXY - way too strong.

BONDS

TLT - tested 93 daily before fading back. Still outside yesterdays high.

TNX - broke 4.2 but only by a hair

2/10 spread - steepening continues

INDEX

NYFANG - a little bounce in fang stocks.

SPX - upside gaps to fill - and Sam can see one more high. Sam gave you the short trade. 5376 short PT. Next time we break 5419 we target 5356 area.

SPY - 535 PT

IWM - Above weekly 212.25 is a long - with 227 weekly as PT. Keep looking at KRE cause it's the reason this is bid

QQQ - 100-day MA as PT worked great. Sam gave you the short trade. Under 455.58 daily we have 449 daily. Confident that we'll tag that 449. Big Bounce in the Q's.

BXM - got support.

SVXY - no energy. wouldn't surprise if we have one more hit lower before a durable bounce with trust.

CHASE

SPX - 5478 / 5479 ... if we got going & we tapped the 3-day ... the daily 5478 / 5479 area is where Sam would expect some weakness. Not a lot of hope for a sttrong bounce in the S&P. "Bounce into the 3-day" is the baseline bet if we get a bounce - but that is not even looking like something that is on the table.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AMZN - strongest of the FANG' stocks.

AAPL - 210 short pt

APA - stay above 31 then it's ok.

BIDU -quick rejection. not ready.

BABA - not yet. 70 area PT.

BMY - coming up from the ground. Above the 200-day now.

CELH - cut n half.

CNC - healthcare plan thin play

CHTR - popped above 200-day MA.

COOP - weekly breakout higher.

CMG - came into weekly support.

DECK - get above 956

DXCM - nasty. would avoid it.

GOOGL - continues to be weak.

GH - like it - very productive.

GERN - holding above the 55-day. 3.49 weekly held & moving well above the 10W. Productive but thin.

GILD - doing awesome - 79.61 continued long PT weekly. "79 area" - likely where it see's digestion.

HIG - very strong.

IBM - what a beat yesterday. Beauty. Weekly "scoop" pattern.

KWEB - breaking down

KRE - reason for the season. Short covering rally. Weekly 60 with overshoot into 61.37 is the level to target long & likely where we digest. Very bullish above - likely peters out there. Could push above in an overshoot.

LLY - don't think this is done. Still in distribution.

LMT - great.

MHK - popped into monthly resistance.

MMM - earnings - beauty - 112 PT monthly coming in today. Once above weekly 92.52 and then 101 it was a good move into 112 PT. Above 112 we have a whole new channel. WOW - very strong move into the 400MA. 120.40 weekly resistance & long PT.

NVAX - weekly "scoop" pattern - still looks very good.

NOC - buyback announcement.

NVDA - 106.53 gap fill. Bulls need it above 116.50 to go for the gap fill.

PDD - took a while but broke the 200-day.

POWL - has to hold 125.50 - or the 200-day MA. Been digesting all year. HAS TO HOLD HERE.

RTX - great.

RNA - love.

RCL - forming an evening star reversal.

TOL - weekly breakout beauty.

TPH - nice.

TSLA - very bearish this name. Below 217.65 weekly is a continued short. Like 200.00$. Unwinding - possible "very bearish" actions.

UNH - blue skys'

VKTX - stay above 60.30 weekly. spike above 70 weekly for a continued move higher.

WMB - has been a great move higher on weekly - until monthly resistance held & it came back in. Profit taking came in. Back now to the 10-week. Coming into the 55-day MA. 40.76 weekly is likely short target before it digests. Weekly bearish engulfing.

WCN - forming an evening star reversal.

WM - catching down

VLO - looks fine.

VRNA - very productive.

XLP - like it for safety

XAR - defense contractions - like it

XLU - fine

XLV - best.

RAIL ROADS POPPING OFF BOTTOM - (HOME BUILDERS LEADING - CONSUMER CYCLICAL - INSURANCE - ASSET MANAGEMENT doing well)

Three largest consumer names - Sam is very negative of these - "SELL THE RIP"

NKE, SBUX, DIS


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