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Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary 1/13/25
Relief Bounce In The House, But Will It Stick ;-)
Friday I said “STILL NOT SAFE”. I posted that our best bet for a relief bounce was to gap down Monday. We got the gap down!! And intraday they monetized puts as I discussed early in th eroom to bid up markets as expected:
nice mini bounce at IWM 215
SPX election gap fill bounce at 5783.44
NVDA 129.80 bounce (153 to 130 in 4 days is called OVERSOLD!)
DIA was green early as it bounced off the 30W
and QQQ tagged/bounce perfectly at $500 at 100D
VIX couldn’t hold 20.57 support dumping back down to 19.29
ALL as advertised, but a bounce is not a rally.
BEST CHASE was ANF today as it opened below 148.50 where I said it was LRE (low risk entry) short on Friday’s bull trap at 160. ANF just careened down -18% through every support level: 142, 135, 129, before bouncing there.
BEST OTHER CHASE: TSLA long which Rithika rec’d early.
QTUM bearish engulfing on wkly I warned about continued lower this week into its 10W, as expected last Wed.
WTIC reached my 78/79.11 PT as refiners exploded higher - partially on higher oil, partially on value rotation, but also on this news client Brian shared about distillates:
“so SOYB is moving higher because the biden admin released some details on the 45Z credits in the IRA that basically said the soybean oil from asia doesn't qualify for the credit. This should help put a bid in soybean prices, but would be bad for biofuel companies. Trump probably doesn't roll it back because it will help US farmers get better prices on their soybeans.
Could be another little contribution to the spike in distillates the past few days.”
10Y yield stayed bid with USD with oil which is not market bullish, so read my posted intermarket and then let’s pace ourselves this week. A relief bounce is not a rally. I am still looking for "GREEN SHOOTS" for a more durable rally, but I suspect we will have to wait until February unless intervention enters to tap down dollar, yields and oil! More likely after Inauguration Monday Jan 20th then before…
And let’s keep eyes on my MAG7 ratio, since it is more likely not less to mean-revert to this weekly trendline in the next few weeks.
