Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 2/10/25

With #LTR Notes - by Samantha, Rithika and Mikey

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 2/10/25

It feels a little bull-trappish this week, but my intermarket read is ‘neutrally-balanced’. My JP-US rate spread differentials is still warning but we need a trigger. Powell Tues at 10MA? CPI Wed at 8:30AM? Jobless Claims Thurs at 8:30AM? Weekend de-risking ahead of long weekend? We have President’s Day Monday when market is closed & Feb OpEx Friday the 21st to pin this range and with it VIX. Almost as if market is waiting on NVDA to report 2/26. So TECHNICALLY speaking, we continue to chop until we get decisively above this mosh-pit of intraday chop from THREE MONTHS, or decisive break-down.

From a MACRO perspective, I am still trying to parse out… Trump's comment this weekend about Treasury debt not as bad but with “irregularities” ... and then last night's tease that "we won't tax capital gains". Let’s not forget Bessent's comment last week about "monetizing our assets". Omg, at some point they need to make up their minds: equities or bonds, ya can’t save them both. But until then, it feels like every bad news headline (25% tariffs on steep & aluminum) is offset by some pie-in-the-sky tweet. As if they know how market expansion works from govt expansion and now that DOGE is set to help Trump reduce govt headcount, spending and fraud, they need to ‘say something’ to talk market higher.

But here is STRUCTURAL flow that could be market supportive as it relates to Bessent & recent Treasury issuance delayed: TGA is in drawdown mode. Let me show you how this could be very helpful to support markets, even if they aren’t directly lifted by them.

And then let’s review trade set ups - old & new - because all the themes are still working: NVDA/SMH, CHINA/BABA, GLD/GDX, XME/COPX etc.