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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 5/7/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

Still see my SPX hrly gap fill of 5197.99 tagging - (~$5200) which likely happens same time at QQQ hits 442. I expect a wee bit of shake-n-bake (13.38 VIX tag then bounce), but not bearish because we still have QQQ 445 to hit!
TLT continues to be a great trade off LRE 88.50 now 91.20 with 91.30 55D resistance. That is where yields likely have a wee bounce so stocks and bonds rest/retest lower.
Utilities still look great!!!
RKT, LC, MGIC - looking good for higher on my "warm summer housing market" call.
SVXY above the march high stay above 56.30 or we see some volatility in the market
IWM is bullish on lower yields, above 205 next is 206.78
Best Chase today was DIS falling below key 100D level at 108.60 where it gapped up on Feb 8th. It is pressing into the void now with 103.59, 102.45 then 98 support.
2nd Best Chase today was PLTR breaking 22.70 with 21.42 PT with bet it would form a bearish engulfing on weekly. It did exactly both!
Lottos for earnings after market close: bullish UBER (1x July 72.50C x 2x $80C ratio call spread for $.25 looks good.
All the "Amazons" have done well with earnings:
AMZN, MELI, CPNG, JMIA... why not SHOP?
OSCR + AVAVA weekly scoop patterns pointed out a few weeks ago as high probability technical patterns of continuation continue to do great.
CORN, WEAT, MOO continue to move higher off the bottom after Cocoa broke its parabola
GOOGL hold over 169 for 173,175 stop: 167.39
PEP stays above 177.33 we push 181, its slow n steady
VLO below 157 pushing down to 155,152.35
GEO heading back down to 12.5 below 13.2
CROX pushing into 144,147
DDOG breaks 113,110 and 108 next
CELH breaks 72 we test 65,62
TSLA below 180 we have 177.35, 174.30 again
AAPL pushing to 186.56 and 188 above 182
PLTR below 21.74 pushing down to 20.10
DIS hit 119 and failed on horrible earnings. below 107 is weak to 100
Earnings sam likes UBER n SHOP


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

MAY 7, 2024 AM

Weakness in jobs data & declining wage data.

MAG7 - back to resistance;

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - coming back down. Could see 280 before the bounce gets tested.

IWF:IWD - moved higher.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - too straight up; 5-bar rule... usually the 6th bar rests.

T2104 - still buying;

T2123 - pushed into the 10W and the Kelts. Above is bullish. Gapped up into resistance. Short term bearish - it's just too extended. Still bid.

T2126 - hasn't pushed into March highs.

WTI CRUDE - rolling over w/ a H&S pattern too.

GOLD (futures) - soft; digesting

FX

Dollar (DXY) - sitting here.

USDJPY - a little bounce. 155 is the level to stay below; 10Y JGB getting tapped back down.

BONDS

TLT - stay above 88.50 weekly. This long play has had a good start. Could see 93 in time

TNX - could see a 4.33% swing price PT. Rolling over into 55-day MA. Could bounce there before fading lower.

INDEX

NYSE - getting above 18k is bullish. Triggered today. It's extended.

SPX - 5200 PT still in focus. 5340 is possibly coming back into focus. Sam will dig deeper & give us guidance on this at a later time. 5192.54 is the level of resistance in focus. Could roll over there to come back & close lower gaps.

SPY - get above 518.22; that is likely where we get some shake n bake.

IWM -203.55 weekly support. Gapped up this week. IWM above 205 next is 206.78

QQQ - 445 PT still in focus. pushing. Could roll over there to come back & close lower gaps. Above 442 would surprise Sam. Think we get tap back & could hit 434.

VIX - would need to get above 14.50 for a cont move higher.

SVXY - above the march highs. stay above 56.50 or we'll see volatility rise up. Looks like it will come back down. Careful of QQQ 442. Careful if SVXY turns red.

XLE to SPX (ratio) - still rolling over.

CHASE

AAPL pushing to 186.56 and 188 above 182

COOP - strong trend.

CELH breaks 72 we test 65, 62

CROX pushing into 144,147

DIS hit 119 and failed on horrible earnings. below 107 is weak to 100

DDOG breaks 113,110 and 108 next

GEO heading back down to 12.5 below 13.2

GOOGL hold over 169 for 173,175 stop: 167.39. if it breaks 167.3 we have a channel back down to 155 but bigger picture we are still in trend

IWM above 205 next is 206.78

PEP stays above 177.33 we push 181, its slow n steady.

PLTR below 21.74 pushing down to 20.10. extended intraday

SPY pushing 518.22. be careful there is a gap lower at 514.26

SPX approaching target 5189 likely it for today

TSLA below 180 we have 177.35, 174.30 again

VLO below 157 pushing down to 155,152.35

HONORABLE MENTIONS

A lot of mid-cap tech plays, consumer plays & Semi darlings report this week. Money flowing into Europe. MEME stocks getting hit. the finance names on the warm housing theme (Like OPEN & RDFN) are in play (not the actual "builders" names that already has run (like BLDR))

AAPL - 188 in time; not going anywhere right now. Labeled a great AI Play by EISMAN. IPAD Event started.

BABA - Sam closed the long at 200-day; digesting now at the 200-day & crossed under it.

BLDR - break 171 for a short continuation; very over sold. Could have a reflex bounce higher.

BAND - thin market. Above the 55-day & the 200-day MA. Nice bottom fishing play. Big Volume back in March. 21.68 daily was gapped over - needs to hold above that or above 21 weekly. Could see 26.44 & then 29 weekly

CROX - looks great. Weekly "scoop pattern" - bear trap. Above 130 is very bullish; has good volumes.

CPNG - The "Amazon" of South Korea. Still bullish & sitting at 23.36 weekly resistance.

CELH - 69 weekly short PT. Broke the 55-day MA. Looks like there is reaction selling. hit 64 in the premarket. Break 64 for a move into 62. If it gets above 79 then the short is completely wrong.

COST - weekly scoop pattern; 777 gap fill daily PT.

CCJ - policy caused it to get bid. Has a solid continuation pattern. Very bullish.

DIS - earnings disappointed. Looks like it could fail lower. Sitting on 100-day MA. Not a good look. Holding 106.80 daily barely. Was a big bull trap.

DKNG - get above 45.29 to cont.

DDOG - stuck on the 50

GBTC - looks weak.

GOOGL - 173 weekly is serious resistance. 175 to 155 daily is the channel in focus. digesting. Monthly is Bullish.

JMIA - the "Amazon" of South Africa. 6.40 kind of caps it.

KWEB - Sam warned yesterday. Rejected at the 100-week

MARA - digesting again. Looks weak.

NVDA - chase distribution; needs to get to & break 889.50 for a cont move lower into 863

ORCL - get above 119 weekly to cont higher

PEP - trying hard to get back above 177. Looks ready to move higher. (KO too).

PLTR - looks soggy. Sitting on the 10-week. 21.85 is the big level. Sam warned people that it looked like it could roll over. Be careful of 21.85. It's stupid. Hourly - 21.74 is better on the hourly. Was a big bull trap.

RKT - long working; above the 10-week. Fading Yields help. 15.00$ is a level to watch for resistance.

RACE - looks like an H&S. Very thin market. If it breaks 408.79 it could fall into 393.59 and then into 369.91. Looks like distribution.

RIVN - just got whacked. Rejected on the 55-day. It's back into the Kelt channel on the weekly. Needs to get above 10.69 weekly. "Bullish above" 10.69.

SLV - still see risk in the short term; expect digesting.

TSLA - Rolling over ... likely see 172.

TWLO - possibly looks bullish; no edge with earnings. moving high in election year;

XLU - doing awesome.

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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.