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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
USD + 10Y falling as expected! Bonds are bid as expected!
SPY + QQQ gap and crap makes for very unstable swing trading.
Translation: VIX is not bid but neither are equities.
My expression this morning: "Market Just Doesn't Look Bullish"
But that doesn't mean it is bearish, yet, either.
GME gapping higher on manipulation ($200M position by Roaring Kitty) may ignite a HF Factor Rotation short-covering in select names, but eyes on prize:
IN LIEU OF SECTOR ROTATION THERE WILL BE VOLATILITY
NVDA is still bid as lots of sectors under the surface lag/sell: XLE, XLI, XLF...
Some MAG7 names look vulnerable for a trend reversal (but haven't confirmed): MSFT, AMZN, META...Really like the #STR on oil + #BTD on bonds.
Seeing USD weakening with precious/industrial metals while COAL takes over as COPPER pulls back.
Careful with USDJPY + JGB as Japan has 10Y auction tonight.
We had weak ISM this morning as trigger for bond bid.
Friday we have NFP + lots of data in between.
We likely continue to chop sideways UNDER SPX 5340 with gap in QQQ to 146 still to hit.
TLT pushing into the trend line at 91.35
Untill vix tags 10.60 there wont be strong volatility
Breadth little pause no trend broken
Bitcoin is still holding/still bullish with yields falling.
Profit taking in XLU power producers: VST, CEG, NRG which is extension of AI TECH theme from last week.
XLE continues to fall into my 89.29 swing PTARM 126.59 tagged from 118, now needs to see if it digests next is 132, 135
TSLA trying to get over 181, get it over 184 for 189
Financials are soggy, if we break 41.25 we head down to the 100 day at 40 no follow through in selling
NVDA needs to break 1118 for selling on thin air
META, AAPL still green despite profit taking
MSFT breaking the 10 and 21 day however
CHWY 22.29 digesting needs above for 24,26
NVO + LLY strong trend long continuations but LLY just hit 839 swing long PT (261.8 Fib retrace on wkly).
CVAC bird flu play from 3.15 still working into 4.46 PTCAT short below 334.66 100D break with 317.37 wkly support PT
XLI with 120.48
GWW busted 10/21W and falling into 850 at 200D in time to 811.60 if it says under 100D 930.
PH rolling over as well: 520 IS 100D breakdown, etc.
COHR was best chase Michael rec'd on volume surge
SBUX continues into 55D most likely ~82ISRG is TOTW when it can get/stay above 404 wkly resistance.
NVAX heading to 18.55 next PT
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JUNE 3, 2024 AM
OPEC meeting analysis posted in Slack (check Roberts "BOB" channel. MEME stock rally forcing shorts to cover. "Junk stuff" is up across the board.
MAG7 - gapped up premarket - near Friday's high of day so looking for a inside day breakout.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - back under 300; still above 288. Sam see's 280 in time. Coming Back Down - markets will be held together.
IWF:IWD - off the highs - after hitting close to 2.00 it has faded back Thursday & Friday. Closed near the lows of the day on Friday. Broke under the 20day MA. Sharp pullback - but still has not triggered a roll-over yet.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - breakout higher from Friday's high. Breadth is good to start the week.
T2126 - starting the 4th week a big sideways.
WTI CRUDE - fell into 77$ daily but paused the fall there. Starting our 4th week in this range from 80.00$ to 76.00$ ... tight range. 79.11 is the level to get through for a move into 83... but it's soft right now.
GOLD (futures) - 2300 support; 2425 resistance (weekly). 2300 support; 2370 resistance daily. Still just chopping in the channel.
Nat Gas -Very nice pop up this morning after Friday's doji.
Bit Coin - rally this morning w/ eyes for 70k weekly resistance. Still bullish - but needs to follow-through w/ breakout. Would have to break 65k for lower but there is too much energy. Not a risk until we see higher yields - and the baseline bets is for LOWER yields through the summer.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - not eventful; digesting sideways ... which should resume downward. Lower Highs - lower lows - trying to roll over.
BONDS
TLT - Needs to get beyond 93 to be impressive. Trying to make a run for it. Still looking for 93.00$ & then we'll see. Rejecting the daily TL so far.
TNX - rejected 4.616%. Further south now... Trying to get above 55-day MA.
ZN (10Y) - Large pop up in the 10 & 2 yr. Gapped above the green. Looking to tag the overhead TL.
ZT (2Y) - Large pop up in the 2 & 10 yr.
10/2 - deeper inversion. Still see - 0.60%
INDEX
SPX - 5192 tagged last week. Hit lower TL last week. Need to take out 5340 for a bullish bias. Could grind sideways but bears have the opportunity if they don't blow it. 5290.72 as a short PT trigger so - break that & then we'll see.
SPY - Morning Star reversal from Friday got back above 5250. If things stay weak then 524.61 is the lower PT weekly but need to break that for a real move lower.
IWM - strength.
QQQ - all the PT's hit in the pullback's that Sam recommended. Morning Star reversal from Friday right on 444 level. 456 - we'll go get that next.
VIX - 200-day MA resistance; tanked under 14.4 into $13.00 as expected... perfect.
SVXY - saved last week & got back above 59 weekly. Pulled back on Wednesday - back into sideways.
BXM - ripped higher Friday after falling under the 55-day MA; starting this week green.
CHASE
ARM 126.59 tagged, now needs to see if it digests next is 132, 135
CHWY 22.29 digesting needs above for 24, 26
CAT 332 is support, first time breaking the 100 day
TSLA trying to get over 181, get it over 184 for 189.
XLF - financials are soggy, if we break 41.25 we head down to the 100 day at 40 no follow through in selling
QQQ pushing to 455.93 gap fill.
TREND
GOLD / SILVER ratio - - still doing it's thing. TREND LONG
LLY - still a great play.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
SEMI's falling - SMCI, ARM, AMD, MU.
AAPL - still doing fine; moving higher into next level (196.38 weekly PT). Still looks bullish.
AA - working higher; just great.
AMZN - Daily gap filled & then it bounced last week (Friday).
ASML - be very careful.
ARM - PT on three timeframes; now what.
AVGO - on support; needs to break this stuff.
BTU - 26.30 weekly is where it likes to get tapped back down.
BRK-A ... having issues.
CVS - bullish engulfing -
CHWY - 22.28 is the level to get above. Looks good
CRWD - awesome short last week. Digesting. Big rejection in Cyber Land ...
COHR - 61.74 daily is the level to stay above.
COST - completed the 180 degree move. now into new highs.
GME - the meme rally is alive again. Leading the MEME stock rally. 38.65 is the level to stay above.
GLW - started to break higher; slow & boring but looks great. (Goes w/ AA cont higher)
HACK - under attach last week; congrats if you took that
ISRG - Trade of the week.
JPM - doing awesome; be a little bit careful - financials are a little soggy.
KRE - does not look good; XLF likely a better play.
NVAX - still just sitting here.
NVDA_ strong gap up; very bullish open. Gapped above 1118; stay above that & it's very bullish... if we break that it is a strong bearish signal.
SPWR - rejected 3.93 hourly resistance. High short interest. 4.25 daily is also the 200-day MA. Trying to make a run back to that descending 200-day MA. Above 3.93 next.
SLV - 27.17 baseline bet. still awesome.
SPOT - up this morning because they are lifting their prices.
TSLA - trying to get above the 10-week. Stay above that - then clear 284 ...
THC - best of breed.
VKTX - nothing exciting.
VST - taking a trip back down on volume & see some puts coming in.
WMT - trend long - looks great (BJ's looks ok).
XRT - a MEME proxy. 79.11 is your key. Call selling.
XLF - looking for more weakness; just staring to weaken. Breaking 41.25 daily offers a short PT into 40.00$.
XME - coal keeping it up. (METC - 100w bounce, ARCH - sideways but productive, BTU, CENX, AA, XME is holding up even w/ gold & slv & Copper weakness). CLF weak, Steel weak.
XLV - holding above 10Week.
XLU - AI power development is taking a hit & XLU is feeling it.
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/03/24