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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
Forced Selling Met Panic BuyingThe tactical long rally off major support last Monday August 5th, and the VIX reversal from 65 to 14.49 (200D area) today, is nearing its end I believe - unless this turns into 2000, but I doubt it unless NVDA beats mightily August 28th. And META, GOOGL, AMZN earnings didn't elude to that...In the meantime, the SEMI chases have worked great from NVDA not yet at 128PT but AMD, MU, SMCI + DELL delivering to/through PTs.
While PYPL bottom-fishing swing long fave and PLTR 52W high swing long fave also deliver.
Basically, my GROWTH rotation call from oversold from 1.90 into 2.0 ratio has worked well.
Now, I expect digestion here but when/if this ratio gets/stays > 2.0, then we have 2000-esque bullishness in tech again that will cause my RSP:SPY ratio and MAG7 ratio to see "ONE MORE HIGH", dragging up indices.
The safety plays continue to pay: XLP, XLV, XLU and sector strength in GDX, XHB - with continuous GOLD breaking 2500 but SILVER lagging.
Within XHB ecosystem, my "WARM SUMMER HOUSING" call is still in play and RKT leads.
Within GDX, swing long rec'd NGD, AGI, AU, GOLD, IAG, AEM, NEM, EGO are 52W highs!
Within XLP, swing long rec'd MCD, KO +even CPB look good.
With XLV breaking 52W highs, the swing long fave list is long.
With XLU not breaking its 8D during the recent market correction, it should be clear to see rotation into safety still pays.Point is, whether you attribute the recent 35% NVDA correction pulling SOX down 24% and NDX down 16% to a "GROWTH SCARE", "RECESSION RISK", or "GLOBAL LEVERAGE UNWIND", it can do so again. Earnings August 28th. Place Your Bets!!
Rithika chase summary notes:
SPX 5550 pushed and rejected, SPX 5522 is the level to watch for 5508 and 5485 on the downside on the upside if it holds we have 5550 again
QQQ getting rejected at 473 trend line; if it can get above 473.82 we see 480; we break 468 we see 465,461 if then
RKT stays over 18.35 next is 19.89
BABA over 81.42 into 83, 86 next
HIMS heading to 14.6
if COHR gets rejected at 75 resistance, we come back down to 70
NVDA 123 tagged pushing into 126.88 next
AMD 147.4 tagged and is digesting now
SMCI 620 tagged, next is 660 after digestion against 50 day now
ULTA pushing into 382
IWM 212.5 tagged next 214.20,215
PYPL 68 tagging next is 70.6
TSLA if it stays above 217 can see 221 next, 225
MU pushing into 111
VIX pushing into 14.49, market will be bid till then
Michael's Trading Room Summary
AUG 16, 2024 AM
MAG7 - gapped lower premarket; above all the daily MA's. MACD crossed up but both lines are still under the zero line.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - still broken
IWF:IWD - Closed at 2.00 yesterday; MACD cross looking good but still under the zero line.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - moving higher (stochastics moving lower) weekly.
T2104 - bullish but stochastics is soggy. continues higher on hourly, daily, weekly.
T2123 - curving like a "scoop" pattern (daily). Neutral this morning (Hourly). Weekly stochastics "busted"
T2126 - has not broken down (but the stochastics has) weekly.
WTI CRUDE - bounced at 77; still in a wide range. 79.11 overhead resistance. If oil breaks it could speed up an equity de-risking.
GOLD (futures) - 2480 weekly resistance holding; popped into it this morning
Nat Gas - four days of wicks - four days a push higher failed. Faded under 2.30 this morning.
Bit Coin - so far this morning we are doji; under 58k daily. 56k weekly support. Rolling over. If we break 50k ... this is a topping pattern of size.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - strong rejection at 103 - daily has now set a lower high.
USDJPY - a lot of talk about the Carry Trade getting flows again (bloomberg news) - the 10Y-JGB tagged 0.88% yesterday; hovering at that level this morning. USDJPY tagged 149 yesterday and was rejected soundly - fell under 148 in premarket trading.
BONDS
TLT - gapped into 97.50 this morning; 100 still resistance to get to / get through for any chance of higher.
TNX - 3.88% premarket after hitting 3.95% yesterday.
INDEX
NYFANG - bullish follow-through all week;
SPX - 5550 pushed and rejected, now if it breaks above we have 5585, below 5508 we have 5485 and 5445 | SPX 5522 is the level to watch for 5508 and 5485 on the downside on the upside if it holds we have 5550 again
SPY - 458.50 is the level to be more aware. 550.27 needs to break for a short chase (hourly)
IWM - 212.5 tagged next 214.20,215
QQQ - Below 472 offers 465.11. Above 472 offers 480. This an "if /then"
VIX - 14.50 on the table. VIX pushing into 14.49, market will be bid till then
SVXY - this is busted. Lot's of drama.
BXM - largest move ever. gapped down two weeks ago - into 1800 and here we are two weeks later into new years' high above 1918 weekly resistance. Markets are "less stable" ... hit the 200-day MA & broke under it but still rallied all the way back up through weekly resistance.
CHASE
AMD 147.4 tagged and is digesting now
BABA - over 81.42 into 83, 86 next
COHR - if COHR gets rejected at 75 resistance, we come back down to 70 and gapfill
HIMS - heading to 14.6
IWM 212.5 tagged next 214.20,215
MU pushing into 111
NVDA - 123 tagged pushing into 126.88 next
PYPL 68 tagging next is 70.6
QQQ - getting rejected at 473 trendline
RKT - stays over 18.35 next is 19.89
SPX 5550 pushed and rejected, now if it breaks above we have 5585, below 5508 we have 5485 and 5445. SPX 5522 is the level to watch for 5508 and 5485 on the downside on the upside if it holds we have 5550 again
SMCI 620 tagged, next is 660 after digestion against 50 day now
TSLA if it stays above 217 can see 221 next, 225
ULTA pushing into 382
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AMZN - weak bounce.
ASTS - reversal of size. 2-bar reversal - thats' toast.
ARM - digesting the 21-MA.
AMD - really nicely at the 50-week. 147.44 high - nice. hit the daily 147.62 and now digesting. Can still move higher with NVDA moving higher. pretty nice into 151.
ASML - back above 200 MA. If bullish - it has resistance at 962 daily. Has lots of resistance over head & rolling over on hourly.
AMAT - no go under the weekly TL.
DELL - to the 200-day MA. Back to the TL 111.42
COHR - get above 75.
GLD - still in trend. Weekend risk.
HIMS - still believe in 14.67 PT
JD - 21-week bounce. Chopping at the 200-day. Could hit 84 or 86.. but no trust.
LLY - 938.88 - see if that gets taken out.
HRB - large breakout weekly.
MSFT - hanging out
MU - gap fill back into 111.
MRLV - see it to 70
NFLX - has not broken down. "scoop" hourly. No reversal signal yet.
NVDA - bounce into 126.88 - call is still working
PYPL - bottom fishing play.
PLTR - pretty nice 52W high play.
RKT - has a lot of fuel left still. plenty of bullish move to go
RIVN - this needs time for the 200-day MA to turn & move higher.
RKLB - war vibes. Keep it above 6.14 weekly.
RTX - 118 weekly resistance.
SLV - 23.90 PT.
SMH - 239 weekly is the bull / bear level. Bullish above - bearish below.
SMCI - back to 660 PT & then 668 PT.
TNXP - monkey-pox play.
TSLA - all PT's met. hitting 218.83 hourly. Weekly needs to get above the TL - to get into 226 then get above that to move higher.
TM - may phase all phase out all hybrid space... (MAY... MAY... do so)
ULTA - up on Buffet announced play.
UBER - has not triggered yet. 73.82
AU - Cont breakout weekly.
UHS - new trend breakout weekly.
GLD - cont trend breaking out weekly.
CM - new trend breakout weekly.
FMF - new trend breakout weekly.
UHS - trend breakout
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 8/16/24