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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
We have some weakness big picture even though intraday we have a small bounce
SPX 5111 the level to break to trigger short, on QQQ its 434.5
Net selling is in the house
As USD/10Y yield ratio goes up > 300, SPX will come down.
Likely won't stop until EITHER 350 indicator and/or INTERVENTION
Intraday, follow SVXY and BXM indicators as tell: green is market bullish, red is not.
SLV 27.5 tagged now selling off
Gold is digesting for 6 days but has not fallen apart
AAPL below 174 can come down to 171.5 area, needs above 175 to be bullish
CPNG heading higher into 24.72
TSLA below 166 next is 160.99
MNST breaking 54.5 next is 52.66
NVDA bullish into 922 above 905
SMCI bounce into 994 after 886 gapfill then lets see likely a head and shoulders
NKE holding above 92.64 , next is 94.63 if it can stay above
COIN 240 approaching, next 236,229
GS chase short post earnings was great set up on break < 408.46 to 406.30 to 404.25 - now below - and I think in time back to 394 daily gap fill!
Michael's Trading Room Summary
APR 15, 2024 AM
Having a nice little - VIX fall on Monday. "Little Monday Bounce" in the market. Lot's of Fed Speakers this week; Crude pullback & Silver advancing. Agg up - gold flat; BTC dumped over the weekend. Bonds weak; yields strong.
Sam posted an awesome write up in Slack; take the time to review that in #Samanthas Market Thoughts.
MAG7 - FBFF last week; with price now back within the range we have been in for 3 weeks. r2g & gapped up this morning (but still within Friday's range).
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Firmly above 300; closed Friday off the lows of the session; r2g this morning. Broke above Friday's high but already gave some of that back. Could see 350 / 360 - & that would be pressure on the market. Above 300 is very important.
IWF:IWD - Daily TL breakout. Closed Friday above 1.93. MACD line trying to rise above the zero line; crossed above the signal line while under the zero line.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - still trying to roll over.
T2104 - Net selling; big reversal... but have not broke the 10-week. Have not broken down.
T2123 - nice reversal weekly; daily had a firm sell off - very bearish look.
T2126 - they are trying really hard;
WTI CRUDE - Failed to get into 88 daily; resting at 85 this morning. Only thing really down (with bit coin) this morning. War Risk premium getting deflated from the price.
GOLD (futures) - Set new highs at 2431 last week; pulled back into 2350 area. A little flat.
Nat Gas - forming a daily wedge; higher lows with a flat top (so compressing) but still under 2.00
Bit Coin - "HALFing" coming soon; Lot's of history behind this event. up this morning some - but nothing "WOW' - still under 70k. Gapped down & then bounced into resistance. Still rolling over.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - popped into 106 premarket but fell back under that level when econ came out (retail sales). Needs to base here to press higher into 107.
USDJPY - above 154; had a strong pop up and is near HOD. The BOJ-10Y likely goes to 1.00% (if 0.80 to 1.00).
BONDS
IRX - more compressed.
TLT - Gapped lower; bond crush. Monthly Support 88.47$.
HYG - could bounce here but needs intervention.
TNX - above 4.37 offer 4.7% ... still very yield centric story. Markets (SPY, QQQ) won't move higher with this elevated.
ZN (10Y) - one day bounce that didn't bounce much. Weak. They are selling bonds to buy the dollar to buy gold. 106 likely
ZT (2Y) - one day bounce that didn't bounce much. They are selling bonds to buy the dollar to buy gold. 101 likely
10/2 yield curve in the neutral zone. Going no-where yet.
INDEX
SPX - dumped & stayed dump. Sam said Friday breaking 5149 offered 5111 PT & that is what we got. Have to break 5111 for a cont lower play into 4946 PT.
SPY - Sideways; not higher. Have to get firmly above the hourly TL to be interested.
IWM - weakness.
BXM - they are trying to defend. At weekly level; above is bullish; below is bearish.
QQQ - sideways; not higher. Do not look bullish. 440 very important.
VIX - Expiration Wed; may see them try to hold things together into that earnings.
SVXY - right in between 10 / 21 week MA. Breaking 52.83 weekly offers a bearish bias. Has not fallen over.
CHASE
AAPL - below 174 can come down to 171.5 area, needs above 175 to be bullish
CPNG - heading higher into 24.72
COIN 240 approaching, next 236, 229
GS below 406 into 404, 400
MNST breaking 54.5 next is 52.66
NKE holding above 92.64 , next is 94.63 if it can stay above
NVDA bullish into 922 above 905
SMCI - bounce into 994 after 886 gapfill
TSLA below 166 next is 160.99
QQQ - 440.59 important pivot
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Inflationary trade in full swing; industrial metals. Gold "poised" for higher. Buyback blackout for April. Copper likley to digest here; but it's still fine.
AAPL - dumping. coming back to 171.55 weekly pt.
AMZN - still in trend (one of 4). 188 weekly resistance. Bullish volumes keep coming in.
AMD - at the PT; now on support. 159.72 daily support. 156.73 weekly.
AA - doing a great job. Holding weekly 37$. Pushing higher. Above $37 is very nice.
BTU - keeps getting dumped on Elliot. Watch for weekly HL.
CPNG - cont higher. Congrats on that
CELH - weak.
CVNA - breaking 76 weekly;
CEIX - drama; sad.
COIN - 21-day is falttening out; still has not broken trend (weekly). Would take patience. Sideways. Earnings on MAY 2.
DKNG - lower highs.
DBA - parabolic.
GS - earnings sent it right back into resistance. Likely this is it; will be surprised if it stays up there; think it will be undone. A good short level would be if 408 then 406 then 404 hourly; gap fill. It's a fake move higher. 394 PT short.
GOLD (Barrick) - bearish below 17.31 weekly; offer 16.70 if that level breaks. Big picture it's digesting.
META - "still in trend" - one of 4 names.
MNST - looks like 52.66 weekly PT; let's break that for a cont play lower.
NKE - bullish. The weekly LRE at 88.80 support held. Now stay above 92.64 weekly.
NVDA - above 907 is bullish into 922; get there & then we'll see.
PDD - Someone is short PDD; Sideways; below the 10-week. Break 112 area (or the 200-day MA). Greak short into the 200-day but has to break that to cont lower.
SCHW - nice bounce into weekly bollinger band. Breaking 73 daily offers a fade (like $GS).
SLV - had drama. 25.75 weekly support. Rejected on monthly (27$) resistance. Stay above 25.65 weekly close - that is a nice support. Big picture it's digesting.
SMCI filled the 927 gap fill. Could fly higger - but there is a H&S. Could bonce into 994 & then we'll see.
TLSA - coming back to 10-week
TECK - still looks great. Stay above 49.34 weekly.
XRT - Air Pockets above. Under the 55-day; Likely bounce before rolling over.
XLV - having a bounce; below the 100; more likely this rolls over after a bounce.
-- Shorts Setting Up --
GS - 394 wouldn't surprise
MNST - 52.66 PT.
ANF - weekly 110 PT; bounce into 122 & then come back to 110 & possibly break it
SPY - a roll-over in progress; very early. (Wrong if Bond bulls get support. Dollar gets pushed & equities rise.)
QQQ- a roll-over in progress; very early. (Wrong if Bond bulls get support. Dollar gets pushed & equities rise.)
COIN - BIT COIN proxy - looks great for a short. (Or $GBTC, MSTR, SMCI, NVDA).
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 4/15/24