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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam: Painful market past two weeks because nothing has changed.
Concentration risk in AI TECH - and option flow as well as money flow into AI TECH - is still bullish.Breadth breakdown and selling in everything else is just as big accident waiting to happen, making for not just a bifurcated market but an air pocket of risk forming that the market is ignoring while they chase QQQ, SPY, NVDA calls of size, still.
ARM getting added to Nasdaq 100 helping the euphoria with AVGO now 7th largest weighting in NDX post earnings. SMCI expected to also join NDX 100It's the market we have: treacherous as the selling under the surface in value/defensives/cyclicals/non-cyclicals/you-name-it makes it a stock picking market for sure with few buying protection and VIX compressed.
But TLT did get to my 50W and vice versa so did the 10Y at 4.2. Below will be bearish banks and insurers, but a likely wee bounce here is next. An overshoot into 4.09 is likely in coming weeks.
Translation for markets: Additional rallies will be challenging as further declines in bond yields come with weaker growth. Remember, market loves Fed rate cuts (we went from 3 to 1 for 2024) AND re-accelerating growth (and that narrative is unwinding as bond yields fade).
I really don't see the USD continuing above 105.80 with ease, but much depends on Euro area volatility during this recent "MAGA Wave". We could see that EU drama cool and USD with it. Maybe DXY falling with yields, but this time not bullish for equities or commodities.
Another macro risk event is tonight, but BOJ likely does nothing.
Only tell in this regard is y US30-JP30 yield spread indicator, and it warns of more yield weakness ahead.Loosely held market thoughts for direction into OPEX next Friday:
We have VIX expiry TUES and market holiday WED, so theta decay will be really fast on short duration option trades in general, and yet...
SPX 5500 CALL WALL + JPM UPPER COLLAR could tag, as long as VIX stays compressed AND because NVDA has more calls expiring than SPX!Translation: since NVDA earnings 5/23, NVDA + QQQ calls OTM keep getting bought and going ITM with June 21 expiry. That provides SUPPORT - as dealers buy strong gamma flows.
NEXT FRIDAY should be a great place to short - intra and for summer as dealers SELL OUT OF THEIR STOCKS as those ITM calls expire for NVDA + QQQ.
After Opex, they have a clean slate, but a weaker "floor".I will be looking to see IF IF IF the oversold nature of VALUE actually stops going down, and the weak floor in NVDA + QQQ breaks so as to "catch down" to value.
This is when my growth:value ratio would 'peak' and roll over and provide tailwind for QQQ puts.Otherwise, small caps could actually rotate higher as NVDA + QQQ grind sideways along the "floor". Too early to tell, but next Thurs/Fri should set up for great shorting on Friday and potentially in MAG7 + AI TECH for at least a trade ;-)
XLF, KIE - continue to roll over
XME, GDX - still not done rolling over
IWM - very broken - negative for year
DIA - headed to 377.70 next with TRV rolling over + AAPL extremely extended and due a reversion to 207 likely
ADBE 518/519 is resistance, if we come back down and break it could open up a nice short, trying to stay above it
NVDA holds above 129 we have 132, 135, 137, 127 must hold otherwise has gaps lower to 125,120
RH needs to stay below 243 on the weekly to come down to 176 in time
TSLA below 184 came down into 180, 177.5
NFLX above 650 pushing into 665,670
HIMS still continuing its bullish bent
SMCI 875 tagged and digesting, if it wants to continue higher must hold 834 as pivot
BABA breaks 74 we have 72.8 gapfill
SHOP holds above 67 we have 70
META hold above 505 for 510, 515 stop: 500
enph below 128 we have 126,125
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JUNE 14, 2024 AM
MAG7 - still at highs; stalled. slight gap down but inside yesterdays range as we near the open. Pretty Bid. See the 130 area in time.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - testing 275 again this morning - holding the sideways range.
IWF:IWD - large gap up again; seems stalled premarket.
INTERMARKET
T2104 - Selliing; came into 55-day MA. Broke the Weekly Keltner & coming back into the 55-week. Selling under the surface. Selling is picking up.
T2123 - down; will become a drag on NASDAQ.
WTI CRUDE - rejected 79.11 - up on the day & up on the week but still under that key level. OIL NOT BID.
GOLD (futures) - closed at lows yesterday but ralled to breakout of yesterdays range; still above yesterdays levels this morning as we near the open. Still under 2350.
Nat Gas - Holding 3.00 but still in a range.
Bit Coin - holding above 66k - but thats all we can say. Not Bullish.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - strong move higher but still under 106 daily. Inverse H&S could offer a MM to 105.80 area. If we pop & then reject it could be bullish for equities into 5500 call wall. If we pop & get above 106 it would likely be a headwind to the SPX and the indexes.
USDJPY - the JGB is now back under 1%. ("If 1 then 0.80").
EURJPY - little pullback;
EURUSD - impacted; is a big distribution pattern; has not broken 1.056.
BONDS
TLT - 93 is easy; getting / staying above is the hard part. Bonds Still bid. 200-day MA still decending.
TNX - 4.2 - no problem - It's coming. Getting below 4.1% ... not so easy. We could hit it but hard to see us getting under it and holding it. Below 4.1 we could get into 4.0 and then we'd be done. Could have stocks underperform bonds.
ZN (10Y) - still pushing high; would not surprise if we got into the level. Shake n bake. These would be next... price targets.
ZT (2Y) - still pushing high; would not surprise if we got into the level. Shake n bake. These would be next... price targets.
10 / 2 Spread - firmly in play. Fell out of the wedge. -0.6% still the focus.
INDEX
NYSE - selling spotted yesterday.
SPX - if the DXY pops & then drops - the drop could fuel a push into 5500. Could fall if the DXY gets & stays above 106 area.
SPY - 537 daily short PT if we sgtart to break down. Keep it below 542 if you want to short.
IWM - Below 200 daily; down considerably from the +206 earlier this week.
DIA - one 1 stock is green - the rest are solid red.
QQQ - no selling. Options FLow still bullish. Still see "buy the dip" mode. "barely Green" ... something is up.
VIX - Shake n bake. Weak under the surface.
SVXY - keep in mind 4 sure ... below the TL; Keeping volatility in check. SOLID RED on daily. Stay below 60.76 to see some volatility... Shake n bake. Picking up a little more (speed) today lower.
CHASE
ADBE 518/519 is resistance, if we come back down and break it could open up a nice short, trying to stay above it
BABA breaks 74 we have 72.8 gapfill
ENPH below 128 we have 126,125
HIMS still continuing its bullish bent
META hold above 505 for 510, 515 stop: 500
NVDA holds above 129 we have 132, 135, 137, 127 must hold otherwise has gaps lower to 125,120. NVDA 132 tagged, then 135, 137
RH needs to stay below 243 on the weekly to come down to 176 in time
SVXY 60.76 is important to see if its shake and bake or we get volatility
SPX below 5420 we have 5400, 5375. but need to see more selling, weekend risk exists
SHOP holds above 67 we have 70
SMCI 875 tagged and digesting, if it wants to continue higher must hold 834 as pivot
TLT into 94.53
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AA - came back to breakout point - that needs to hold (24)
AIG - whacked from falling yeilds. Rolling over.
AVGO - it has held.
AMZN - when AMZN -
AMD - holding 158.
ADBE - reported & came back into resistance. They announced a newer higher target in profits yesterday.
BABA - tanking into support;
CODX - bird Flu. Low Priced Stock; coming out of a squeeze.
COST - still strong.
CAT - stay below 334; continues lower.
DB - rolling over; complete dump.
EWG - 30.45 weekly may act as supprt.
EWJ - petering out. Dollar Sensitive.
EEM - not falling as strongly.
ENPH - came back in after tagging 140.
FXI - back to 10W.
GE - give it time. Solid bent. Could take a little while for 158
GH - digesting 32.30 weekly; has to get past that for a cont move higher.
HIMS - still above the 3-day. Strong.
HOOD still hitting resistance.
JPM - options premium generator ... not going anywhere.
KIE - stay below 50.00. JULY PUTs came in yesterday but they are wide options.
MREO - weekly scoop pattern; bullish weekly. It just did an offering & that was completely absorbed.
MSTR - pushed.
MNST - great short. MNST - should digest here.
MSFT - still in breakout "all time highs"
META - riding the 3-day... not breaking the 500 level.
NVDA - still have strength. Still bullish options flow.
NFLX - spiking higher. Melt Up.
PYPL - still no trigger;
SMCI - triggered above 800; taking a pause this morning.
SLV call spreads still coming in (farther dated)
SHOP - hitting resistance 67.36
SNOW - is not a thing; still weak. 124.35 weekly support.
TSLA - rejected 186 (on QUE). Sam said "Careful" yesterday. 177.35 PT. We're in it.
TRV - rolling over; good looking chart. Keep it below 214; 188 short PT weekly.
URI - distribution.
VKTX - still not finding a buyer.
XLF - getting weaker; need the 55-day to finish rolling over; Trend is not broken (10/21 weekly has not rolled over). Have a LOT of red in here that is already in play - now it's affecting insurance names & they are starting to break down too).
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/14/24