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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
Bounce Then Trounce
EVERYONE was calling for "the bottom" this morning. I was convinced the selling was not done. My conviction was SPX would still tag 5375.95 after a bounce.
QQQ into 455.58 on way to 449 H&S PT.
My tell this morning for more volatility is VIX + BXM
I said VIX isn't "done" until it hits ~20 + BXM needs to tag 1878.80.
GOOGL bounced like many others before selling off hard on news of "SearchGBT", but tech is still not done with its FORCED SELLING.
NVDA did tag my short PT of 106.48, but do I think it is done? No.
VKTX did great on earnings - Nice 35% pop that puts it firmly above 60.30 wkly support where it needs to hold. It is still a great competitor to LLY, NVO + viable M&A candidate.
VLO was a fab chase/swing long off the 200D from 150 to 157. Still looks good, especially if it can get/stay > 160 wkly resistance.
Silver tanked hard - my fear for weeks. Gold is following. Careful on miners!
My "Warm Summer Housing Market" call saw COOP spike 9% on NYCB selling off mortgage assets. Those collective trades are still doing well. See JOE!
USDJPY bounce on 200D helped stabilize markets in the morning, but the yen carry trade seems firmly in play so we will need much more than a day to assess its strength. I spent some time reviewing my 2024 call for this very risk - an unwind of the short bond/long nasdaq trade. It's started if you didn't notice ;-)
MSFT, META, AMD, AAPL are just some of the continuation shorts given.
WM, TER, LLY and others are just examples of valuations getting repriced.
New swing short ideas offered up: WCN, RCL, ALL - all working.
When I said "KNOW WHAT YOU OWN" two weeks ago. I meant it.
In the meantime, my GROWTH:VALUE ratio has finally tagged 1.95 - also the level I referenced 2 wks ago on JULY 9TH! After it bases, we should have a strong bounce.
But this should coincide with VIX 20. I'm waiting for it not front-running it.
You do you.
MY WORLD VIEW POEM:
Credit spreads compressed.
Volatility suppressed.
Currency depressed.
From Policy Interference expressed.
We have Quantitative, Monetary & Currency EASING
Which is LIQUIDITY producing versus seizing.
Deflation & Devaluation
BEGETS
Derisking & Deleveraging
Bonds were already sold.
Equities are now way too bold.Rithika chase summary notes:
SPX 5445 breached into 5420,5395 but bounced before gap filled
QQQ pushed into 455 gapfill and lower trend line and bounced
META broke down below 469 into 451 then overshot into the 441 range target
USDJPY bouncing off 152 supporting the markets
VIX approaching 18.44, then 18.70 we see what we do there
AAPL below 220 pushed down into 216 target; under 217 still at risk to 213,210
LMT 520 tagged, 529 next if that breaks 547
IWM above 220 into 223, 225 stop: 219
PDD needs above 130.26 for 126, 118
ARM above 150 has gapfill to 157.90
AMD lot of selling below 150 at risk to 130,110
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 25, 2024 AM
MAG7 - popped higher in premarket but still under the 10, 20, & 50-day MA's.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - resting on the 275 level
IWF:IWD - popped higher in the premarket - back above the 100-day MA. The call was short into 1.95 and we blew through that level.
INTERMARKET
T2104 - little selling under the surface; has weakness under the surface. net selling still under the surface
T2123 - bullish. not worried about the safety right now.
T2126 - bullish
WTI CRUDE - broke 77 daily; down more than 1.5% premarket
GOLD (futures) - broke 2400 daily; down 1% in premarket.
Bit Coin - soggy; on the 50 level.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - chopping about; basically flat this morning and still within the weeks range - going nowhere so far today. inverse H&S hourly is working.
USDJPY - 200-day MA bounce. Breaking 152 will likely cause a carry unwind
FXY - 60.40 weekly resistance. 10/21 looks like it is going to digest and move higher. Monthly Bullish Engulfing. Still a protracted downtrend. On watch to break above the monthly / weekly TL (61 / 62 area). Higher is "market bearish."
BONDS
TLT - not safety.
TNX - still sideways under 4.3% - holding above 4.2% daily.
10/2 spread - BOOM - very big. Bull Steepener - very strong.
INDEX
NYSE - holding.
DIA - not fallen apart
SPX - Could bounce & fill gaps (higher or lower).. we could go higher on this bounce - but Sam think's the shell game is done. That they can't keep it going. Could see 1 more high before we roll over. Tiny 10-week bounce. 5375.95 is the hourly lower gap. We WILL fill that.
SPY - needs to hit the TL first before a good bounce. (call it ... 539 area) into 548 ... if no bounce then more likely 535. We WILL go to 537. 540, 535, 530 ... level by level.
QQQ - 449 measured move price target. If you are pressing short still (after sam said yesterday we were going short) then 449 is the PT measured move. Weekly 449 also has that level. Seems like a lot after falling so far - but that is just math & that is how it works. Higher probability.
VIX - 18.70 & after the first tag - then maybe we digest & then $20.00 PT.
VXN - caught that volatility Monday.
VVIX - tapped & came back in perfect.
BXM - dumped massive move - Sam said it would. Rolled over into 1888 support. Nothing says "bounce" here.
CHASE
AAPL coming down into 216 then 213.9 then 210.
AMD forced selling to 131
ARM above 150 has gapfill to 157.90
IWM above 220 into 223, 225 stop: 219
LMT - 520 tagged, 529 next if that breaks 547
META 451 tagged, below that we have 445.80,440
PDD needs above 130.26 for 126, 118
QQQ all lower gaps filled, 460 remains pivot now
SPX below 5447 we have 5375 the 55 ema could lend support | SPX 5420 doesnt hold we push to the gapfill at 5375
SPY 539.80 the trendline for a bounce, if that doesnt hold we have 535
VIX approaching 18.44, then 18.70 we see what we do there
USDJPY bouncing off 152 could support the markets
TREND
GD - trend long fav for a while. looks like a continuation.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
ARM - now bouncing - but it's a trend reversal.
ABBV - just great. Not yet blue sky's. Get above 183 weekly. Great looking play.
ANF - short working. 139.89 weekly short PT. (or 140) - and then let's see. Could "really" break down. 122 below that.
AMD - bleeding under the 200-day MA. 141.82 weekly was PT but we are past that. 131 weekly possible PT & then a sharp bounce. Just keep holding until something shows as support. 137.70 and 135 hourly short PT's.
AAPL - not done until it comes back to 210. Like the Apple.
CL - safety trade - great.
DELL - weekly 10/21 rolling over. this is a mess. It's a ugly chart. Weekly bearish engulfing.
CRWD - insurance drama; still in trouble. "toast" -
GLD - doing as feared - "not safe."
GILD - above the 200 day now. Sam gave it to you - what a move. Continues to work.
MU bull options. will bounce at 101.85
META - great breakdown on the 30-Week. Stay below 486- buh bye. Likely sell into earnings & then a shake n bake higher. 200-day PT is logical. Break 444.86 to run into that 200-day. Below the 200-day we have 400.00 as a gap target.
NVDA - into a 20% correction at this point - but we have been on this all the way down. 106.47 weekly support. 106.94 hourly is lower gap fill. When we bounce we'll get 122.
RTX - (LMT too) doing wow.
SLV - smelled the drama coming; coming into the 30-week. 24.51 PT weekly. Getting dangerous even with gaps up to fill.
WCN - Forming a H&S. Catching Down to reality - very bearish chart. Get below 202.69 weekly. Already starting to roll over. Looks like a fantastic short.
VKTX - earnings - this is great and good TL. Stay above 30W. Got to get above.... something (70 weekly maybe... Sam didn't say).
XLP - great.
XLU - beauty.
XLV - blue sky's - 154 weekly ... open the ETF and look inside.
SMCI & DELL - these are NVDA "tells" - Using these two as a "tell" - that they would break before NVDA does - and that worked perfectly.
love these
AMGN - ABBV - GILD - XLP - XLV - XLU
Still good Short
WING, CMG, DPZ,
CAVA, WM, WCN
LVS, MGM
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