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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 3/25/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

SMCI best chase long this morning with NVDA call buying + put selling from open.
Still see fewer and fewer good set ups long, however. Like what I have - both TREND & SWING longs - 3 new added last week working well.
But fewer and fewer swing candidates honestly.
Had TONS in Jan + Feb - not so much in March.
Best looking today:
TTD rec'd last wk as 'hold your nose' above 82, now 86 still working
IP getting above 40 is productive
TGT staying above 162 is still bullish.
Lots of chases - like ARM breakout of daily wedge or BA on quarterly support, but I don't trust these chases stick.
Mostly, I am waiting patiently to see if ENERGY play XLE gets/stays > 95 wkly as that will mean a BIG breakout is coming.
XME also scooping higher as industrial commodities get accumulated.
Precious metals doing well after food/agriculture.
It means tech could come under distribution after APRIL... think NVDA earnings May 22 ;-)Market still unable to breakdown and have sizable selling
SPX above 5225 we see 5250 and 5300 in time
IWM got defended well at 205 above 207 we move back into 210
XLE above 94.51 there will be a rotation into energy stocks of size
GLD and SLV digesting with a dollar bounce
Bonds look soft but not by a lot
ANF below 131 rolled into 127.55, now needs below for 125,122
ARM above 136.44 reached our 142 level now need above for 146,150
PDD headed down to 118.88 below 122
GM 43.88 tagged next is 45
PYPL needs above 66 for 68 and 71
HOOD above 18.76 for 19.25,20
ORCL below 127, possible gapfill to 124.60 for a chase
TGT above 172.67 we can see 175
TSLA rejected 174, no trade here yet
AAPL below 170 revisit 167,165


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

MAR 25, 2024 AM

Sam wrote up a lot of material in the Slack; please take the time to check that out.

MAG7 - Daily MACD still above zero & has "crossed up" again in a bullish signal last week. Still above all the daily MA's (but testing the 3-day MA in premarket today). Still holding the daily / weekly highs & still looking very bullish. Still marching higher.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - 260 / 280 channel; chopping.

IWF:IWD - MACD daily is below zero (but close to the zero line) & last week we got a "cross up" of the signal line ... watching this week for a move above the zero line. Closed at the highs Friday but gapped a bit in todays premarket. Still holding above the daily MA's but looks to be testing the 3-day MA from above. Well off the highs of the year - has tested the 50-day MA a few times and has rallied back above it less and less each time.

Looks like it is trying to get back into the channel; could signal a "crash up" in the markets & we could hit that 5340 between now and the beginning of earnings. The longer it struggles to get back inside the channel - the more likely it dumps.

Intermarket

T2104 - Still bullish on weekly; Stochastics is a "picture of bullish" on weekly. Daily closed near the lows of the session on Friday with the stochastics still looking strong and bullish.

T2123 - Weekly still looking very bullish... like (?) 9 weeks in a row green (?) ... impressive. Stochastics weekly looking strong and bullish.

WTI Crude - Still holding above 80.00$ - 83.00 still holding as resistance. Above 83 would be noteworthy. Likely hit's 83 again but unlikely to get above 83.

GOLD (futures) - Big Pic GOLD is still BULLISH. 2164 is important. 2200 still resistance. Anything above 2009$ & Sam is bullish.

Nat Gas - nothing

Bit Coin - holding around the 67k area. Losing it's vigor of selling.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - rejected from 104 again daily. Daily MACD starting to cross up from below zero. Coming back in a bit; the talks from fed members giving it a little weakness. Looking to see this come back inside 104.22 & stay there.

USDJPY - back above 151 daily. MACD "crossed up" and also above zero. Price holding the daily chart highs.

USDCNH - 7.20 weekly support.

Bonds

TLT - Gapped up strongly Friday (above 94) but has faded lower; in the premarket we are near 93.75. Have not turned higher yet; Needs to get above the 10 & 21 week. Still under the 200-day - so it's still "short the rip"

TNX - Friday gapped down & closed doji; this morning we had an inside day breakout but have faded back into yesterdays doji range. Still expecting this to "not be allowed" to go up.

ZN (10Y) - closed at high of day Friday - now nearing Friday's low.

ZT (2Y) -chopping sideways daily;

10/2 curve - still looking for 0.60%

Index

SPX - Sam said we would pull back into Friday & we did; cheers. 5226 is the level. Below is bearish; above is bullish. Could see 5300 this week. Gapped down at the open today. Get back above 5226 then 5249 then 5300 call wall.

SPX - 5233 gap fill PT. Could see 5300 by EOD Thursday if we can get this gap closed & get above it.

SPY - 518 hourly short PT.

IWM - Very productive.

IWN - Closing above the 10-week. Very productive.

QQQ - 448 before softening. Could see a squeeze towards Thursday and then a softening after the end of the month.

VIX - Sam said we would see a little VIX - we did. Cheers.

SVXY - Bullish above 112 / bearish below. Still bullish. Looks tired.

Chase

AMZN needs above 180 for 183, 185

ARM needs above 142 for 145,150

ANF needs below 131 to roll back down to 127,125 - ANF needs below 127 to follow through to 125,122

GM 43.88 tagged next is 45

HOOD above 18.76 for 19.25, 20

ORCL below 127, possible gapfill to 124.60 for a chase

PYPL needs above 66 for 68 and 71

PDD headed down to 118.88

SPX above 5225 we see 5250 and 5300 in time

TSLA needs above 174 to be bullish to 180

TGT above 172.67 we can see 175

Honorable Mentions

"Warm" summer housing market... Sam wrote up in Slack.

China warning about limits to US Chips - news hit semi stocks. Semi advance is very extended. ALU doing better than COAL.

AAPL - Still "bear flagging" w/ a 165.70 PT but strong support at the 100-week

AMZN - still bullish; highest conviction long.

ACN - pulling IBM down a little. Wow.

ALL - oh wow. Still looks great.

AEHR - way off on earnings estimates. Longs need to get this above 13.00 weekly for a entry.

ARM - get above 142 weekly for a cont long. Stay above 137 hourly for a short term bullish move.

AMD - a great short; hitting PT's nicely. resting at the 55-day. Break 174 for a PT into 164. Careful of a pop up first - on hourly.

ANF - doing what it is supposed to. Needs to keep going. Looks like a great lower high. Looking for a cont roll over (lower). ANF - watch that 21 day MA; could rebound off that level and get some momentum for a cont short. into 122... then bounce and move into 115 then a bounce again & a roll over down into 110

BA - up 4% after news of the CEO stepping down. Moving into 55-day MA. Selling off at the open. 190 daily support. Above 197 weekly is bullish.

BMY - holding 52 is very important.

CENX - 13.75 weekly breakout. this "could be" the next space

CVNA - still see 115 PT. Bollingers daily are pinched in.

CNX - Breakout above 22.50 offers 23.68 weekly PT. Get above that to cont. into 24.80 and 26.40. Stay above 22.50 weekly. Nice "scoop" pattern weekly.

COIN - still in play (hood too).

CHK - selling is light;

CHWY - dumpy;

CP - could see 85.40 weekly ... "long but with protection" - resting on the weekly upper Keltner.

$C- earnings on 0.12.24 - has to get above 61.67.

CGC - Above the 200-day MA. Coming back in after tagging weekly levels. MSOS still bid.

DIS - not a short. that 200-week was tagged & then we broke above it. Activist investment has given this a pop.

DXCM - looks good. Stay above 132 weekly.

FSR - 40 weekly level coming into focus.

FCX - testing 46 weekly. Holding above 44 daily. Still looks cvery strong. Looks like it is at weekly resistance.

GME - up 10% ... possible short covering rally starting...? "Hedge Fund Factor Rotation" would be in play if this continues to go up.

GLD - weekly gap higher; still digesting. Digest & look for a trigger. GOLD / SLV ratio still working well.

GDX - looking perky. a little weakness but weekly looks great. Digested the weekly trash.... now moving higher.

GM - looks great.

HOOD - still long in play.

IP - contrats if still long. Above 42 weekly - very nice.

IBM - selling off on last weeks data.

MCD _ still upset. Under the 2--day MA. Rolled over. Failed that 300-week and just fell away; big picture it's strong but not working right now.

MU - popping. Crazy Bullish.

META - holding that weekly 504.

NRG - utilities never act this way; dang. Anything related to AI data centers are just hot hot.

NVDA - 11 weeks of green close. Very extended. Break below 860 to see what happens next. Still continuous call buying.

ODFL - looks great. Looks ready to become a trend long.

ORCL - 124.60 for a chase short is not a bad idea ... but really expecting sideways for a while.

PYPL - still long; still like it.

PDD - short into 118.88 daily PT. Could overshoot into 112 area.

RDFN - way early - look at the write-up in Slack.

RIG - hitting the 50-week.

RITM - seller at 12.00$ weekly.

RKT - Weekly "scoop" pattern. Very thin. 15.08 daily resistance. 15.26 weekly resistance.

SLV - got supported above the 10-week... has a little weakness but hold your nose.

SQ - looks like it wants to - but it hasn't

SMCI - keep it above 994; pushing higher. "Daily squeeze" pushing higher. Spiking above 994. Strongest Intraday squeeze today ...

TSLA - right into BB resistance hourly. Choppy. likely hits at 180

TPX - looks fine.

TGT - very strong; like this chart a lot.

VKTX - careful. Could have news in next few weeks. Still bullish.

XHB - write up in Slack. New Home Sales Monday.

XBI - did a great job getting above the TL weekly. Came back to the 10-week. Needs to get back above 94.32. Should see 91 weekly hold.

XME - Weekly "scoop" pattern. Producing a "catch up"

XLE - if we get above 94.71 monthly / weekly .... There WILL be a rotation into energy of size. Would have to "stay above" that level. PBF - OXY - still bid. VLO - extended.

ALEX Longs

SANA - support at 8.00 weekly. Testing resistance at 9.55

ANNX - above 6.67 weekly & digesting

LTRN - very dramatic. Keeps moving higher. WOW; choppy.

EOLS - a little soft weekly - digesting weekly but still really good.

TJTX - for sure. 17.00 weekly resistance. Hold your nose. Above the 200-day MA. Digesting the 55-day MA. It's a news event for bio-tech

VKTX - high conviction trade - event driven. Chart looks good

VRTX - great shape.

RPRX - looks solid.

RNA - digesting but above 20.80 weekly.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.