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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/12/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
Yesterday was INTENSE!
How intense? SIX standard deviation move in small caps compared to large caps AND the 2nd biggest outperformance on record - biggest was 10 sigma event OCT 2008!!!

Now that I have your attention: Pls go and reread #samanthas-market-thoughts posted Wed, Thurs and this morning on "hedge fund factor rotation". Again, if this continues, there will be many "pods" that blow up, but it is also what trend reversals are made of.

For now, the rec'd IWM $112C went way ITM before I warned this morning live that IWM 215 overshoot PT would likely fade - down $2 so far - with a close <> $212.25 wkly close key to market neutral hedge fund shops ;0(

LCID was my 'highest conviction speculative " bet Monday on a 10/21W crossover (trend reversal short covering) with $2.99 support and $4.29 PT. Stock +43% in a week.
Options up a lot more...

SPY 263 ATH Fib retracement on wkly at 261.8 from 2009 bottom...
SPX 5650 major option wall resistance...
Above is melt-up; below is melt-down?

USD dipped further - to match last month's CPI low.
10Y is below my 4.2% - likely continuing to 4% as bonds are bid.

Swing Longs:
MRVL + UBER - strangely I'm not worried.
GLW just continues higher!?!
PLTR - nice doji on wkly basing well above 26.83 daily support.
RIVN - sweet push above 16.32 Wed above 18.02 next PT. Also part of short-covering.
LCID - recd at 3 now 4.29 50W so should digest but still with 28% short interest!!
XME, GDX continue to perform well
XLU, XLP, XLV defensives are fine
VRNA - warned profit taking likely at 21.33 area
MDWD - very nice digestion > 18.86
RNA - very extended but has done nothing wrong

Client Requests:
MMM - still digesting that 101 wkly support 9 wks now looks ready to push into 108. Earnings 7/23.
AEHR looks very good post pre-announcement Wed, staying > 14.26 with 21% short interest.
INTC looks good as it digests 35 major wkly resistance - potentially leaving a 10W island below on daily chart.
ULTA - looks like INTC scoop pattern. Needs to get/close > 415 wkly.
CVNA > 135 MONTHLY resistance brings 150, 158 as discussed many times.

Trend Longs
HD - back to 363 on inverse H&S on daily gives it $30 measured move potential: 375 then 383 April high ;-)
FLR - working great
ISRG - very nice
LLY - 12 green wkly closes - a record!!
ICE - new rec'd one at 138.46 now 149 so good start! They are in the treasury market trading biz soon, the biggest market in the world

Trend Long Faves:
COHR > 75 wkly breakout
AMGN > 326 wkly breakout
IIPR > 200/10W at above 108
BRKB > 417 wkly support/trigger for 430 ATH breakout
RACE > 430 gap up breakout trigger
NVS > 108.78 wkly breakout ATH
TER > 152.23 wkly support breakout.
IR > 96 wkly breakout after consolidating4 months
PGR needs 217.77 trigger ATH wkly breakout
REGN - broke out at 998 now 1108

Chases
LC - rec'd into 9.65. We are there.
Others on the 'warm summer housing market' theme with high short interest: RDFN, OPEN, RKT, XHB, VNO
SEDG - oversold solar play: 26 to 33.74 PT would form morning star reversal on wkly.
BLNK, PLUG, ENPH also spiking from oversold.
XPEV has a look on wkly but needs to get/stay > 10.50 to be trend reversal short trigger of size. Ditto with NIO
UPST has a look on wkly but needs to get/stay > 29.30 to be trend reversal short trigger of size.

BIG BEARISH WEEKLY CANDLES:
COST
META
NFLX
TSLA sharp pullback on break of 265 yday to 235 then bounce today to retest major wkly trendline. Above is bullish; below is not! 237.40 is monthly support.

LONG STORY SHORT - LOTS TO TRADE!!
and buying in NYSE stocks past 3 days of size including today.
Factor Rotation is still in play.


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JULY 12, 2024 AM

MAG7 - Large sell-off yesterday; now below the 3 & 10-day MA. Mild gap this morning but still inside yesterdays range. Still above the 3-week MA & well above the 10-week MA. Has not triggered yet. Still expect 131.67 daily (higher).

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - second day below 275's level. Remember that this is inverse the S&P - so down (or lower) is good for markets.

IWF:IWD - fell into the 20-day MA yesterday & closed there. Now firmly below the 10 & 3-day MA. Gapped lower this morning - so we look to open today below the 20-day MA. Still inside last weeks levels and still well above the 10-week MA.

INTERMARKET

T2104 - big breakout - volume bar was big Wednesday & it continues

T2123 - breakout weekly Very big move - not normally a sustainable one. Yesterday & today - a factor unwind in full view. Above the 55-day now. It will retrace 50% of the move (since may) - but has more to go....

T2126 - breakout weekly.

WTI CRUDE - bouncing. Talked about that - nothing really to focus on right now in this space.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - dumped yesterday. Evening Star Reversal on weekly.

USDJPY - rolling over.

BONDS

ZN (10Y) - still have a lower gap to fill & it will fill eventually.

ZT (2Y) -

10/2 - above 0.268 we have a further steepener. Does look like it is going to climb higher.

INDEX

NYSE - Looks bid (again) today.

SPX - filled gap lower & closed above it.

SPY - Bearish Engulfing daily.

IWM - 212.25 weekly is the level to breakout (& keep) to be bullish small caps. Still getting a LOT of bullish flows. Falling Yields good for solar (for example) - look for reasons to go up & upset the shorts. Still have millions coming in on options - call buying & put selling... will blow up some trade shops!! $IWC was up 5% yesterday.

QQQ - hit PT's (tag your it) and dumped into short PT's. 491 PT happened by 2PM yesterday. Filled two gaps. Well done. Bounced right into 3-day.

SVXY - strong pop.

BXM - very strong all of JUNE ... continues higher. Nothing bearish for any reversal bear candle. Still bullish.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

ADBE - downgraded - get above 574 weekly to cont higher. Bearish harmi this week ... could chop around the 200-day for a while.

ALNY - big move. Event driven trash but "wow" breakout still working.

AMZN - needs to get above 200.00$

AEHR - 21.5% short interest. Digesting.

BABA - likely pauses here at the long PT. Cheers.

CVNA - still bullish. 124.68 weekly level needed to breakout

COST - Sam called it short yesterday when it gapped up - g2r and gave PT's at 863 w/ overshoot into 855. Weekly has a reversal candle. Selling is clear.

CSCO - bouncing.

DIS - data breach.

LCID - like it - Still in play. broke up above the 200-day MA. Crossed above 10/21 weekly. 4.00 looks like resistance. 50-week MA also resistance. The down-slopping 200-day MA is a threat for longs. 3.86 PT & could overshoot to 4.27. Hit 3.95 & paused.

FAST - reported. Very nice .. popped back up

GLW - crazy!! Careful after this awesome move.

INTC - big bounce. Digesting. Getting supported. Resistance (a LOT of resistance) above 35.00

IR - trying to pop back up.

INSM - nothing wrong here. BB squeeze was a huge bear trap. 45-degree weekly move higher.

KRE - big reversal yesterday - heavy shorted name popped higher.

KWEB - no excitement yet.

META - continues to dump. tested 497.21 hourly this morning... a 10W tag ... look for a weekly bearish engulfing (493.17) to see a continued move lower. (Just below the 55-day MA). Not bouncing.

MRVL - needs above 75.38 & then it could push.

MSFT - forgotten.

NFLX - earnings next week. Looks weak. people could get nervous before earnings.

NVDA - nice bounce on a Friday morning.

OPEN - Crossing through it's weekly MA's. Broke above the 55-day MA. Still have 200-day MA above

QURE - not sustainable. (Just like AAP).

RIVN - like it. Recovery story. Stunning. Very different. Above the 200-day now. Looks a LOT better... (than LCID). Really gunning for it.

RNA - continues to impress.

RXRX - sitting on 237. NVDA infused.

RDFN - speculative play for housing - if yields soften

SNOW - coming down. data breach.

SNAP not triggering.

SQ - oversold tech play. Has options coming in. Above the 50W and the 200D MA's.

SMCI - that 927 level is the trigger - has to get above.

ROKU - has not broke above 63 yet.

TSLA - great short yesterday. bouncing on 237 weekly.

TAN - morning star reversal.

TSM - firm.

TECK - looks fine.

UBER - like it. Needs to get above.

UPST - get above 29.30 & then 31.20 weekly to continue higher.

VRNA - 21.33 weekly resistance taken out. Could Double. Great. Could hit 23.00$

XPEV - very nice.

XBI - coming back to life.

BANKS

BKRB - looks like it is headed higher again.

WFC - gapped down strongly. Weakest of the list. Nice dump - 7%. $55.25 weekly short PT likely gets hit today.

JPM - the beast. 21-day gap down. Large gap down this morning - but still sitting near weekly bollinger highs' ...

C - gapped up & then sold off. Most interested in this bank. Looks like banks are getting sold this morning. Firmly above & in trend - even after the sell-off this morning. a "turn around story"

BIO

AMGN - 326 push above

AXSM - great scoop pattern - great story. can be violent.

GILD - a wild one. A widow-maker. HIV contracts giving it a lift

HIMS - no trust in this one - the clock is ticking now because of a C&D order.

ISRG - has been very firm. Has some AI in it.

LLY - weeks of green... Alzheimer's drug approval. New news about curing dementia .. still going strong.

MDWD - could go higher. Has had 2 bids for buyout. Very nice.

NVS - breakout into new highs - interesting science ... target research cancer (not a "option play")

NRIX - stock only ... 22.50 weekly resistance. excitement. Still moving higher.

NVO - consolidation is nice

REGN - breaking out again.

TGTX - an animal. 20.70 weekly resistance. The science is good. Keep this on the radar ... seeing good sponsorship.

VKTX - needs a bidder. Great science.... needs a buyer or a bidder.

VRTX - a beast. just great. has not broken trend.

VRNA - could take a while.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.