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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
FROM SAM -
First...From my 2024 Predictions - given to clients in December '23:
"5. Outlier: Biden drops out, and H2 prices that change of policy regime in with higher Volatility and Oil."IT HAPPENED. BIDEN IS OUT. NOW WHAT?
I have a very uneasy feeling in my gut - yes, this is GUT trading not data-driven analysis - but I have been doing this awhile to know I should LISTEN to my body when the hair on the back of my neck rises or my stomach feels queasy and both are happening right now.
We need "PROOF OF LIFE" that Biden is still with us and/or capable of presiding over the world's largest economy & military. We have proof he has withdrawn, and with it, Kamala Harris has secured enough delegates to continue, but does she become defacto President, too? The market has not priced any of THAT in let alone an Schedule 25.
https://x.com/SamanthaLaDuc/status/1810392582981050758
Second...
Dems are going to be attacked for gaslighting at best, 'stealing delegates for Harris' at worst, as this mini-series drama continues. This is a wall of worry and yet, a reason to worry!
Even if many pundits have handed over victory to Trump, I believe it is premature. RFK is trending even if he doesn't make it on primetime news. That could change, and as his chances grow, the market won't. Even if many believe he is good for American big-picture, the market will start to price in his policies against Blackrock, Big Pharma, Big Tech, etc. and this has not even been considered because so many have dismissed him/his changes.
My job is to keep eyes WIDE OPEN for potential risk, and I see more volatility not less moving forward.
Third...
My trading-room-notes from Thursday morning's #live-trading-room worked extremely well. Have a look because I still see 'forced selling' not quite done.
This is not like the April pullback I spied 4/4 that lasted 3 wks into 4/19 when I said it was over. This current correction started 7/11 and doesn't look resolved. So just be careful. We need to get through bulk of big cap tech earnings and then EOM Quarterly Funding Announcement, NFP + FOMC - and none of it looks surprising and yet I am expecting surprises.GOOGL has earnings premarket Tuesday - no edge, but they are expected to beat. Question will be how market reacts...
Rithika chase summary notes:
CRWD below 290 into 268, 250
NVDA 120 pivot, gap above to 123,125; below 120 to 116, 106
QQQ bounce into 484 then potentially lower to 468
SPX holds above 5550 we can see 5575,5580; below 5540 into 5525,5505
CMG approaching 52.50 then 50
SMCI down to 775, 745 stop: 785
IWM into 214.20
MSFT above 443 into 446 stop: 442
TSLA above 252 can see 256 but sam doesnt think it has too much energy
Net volume still selling
Oil volatility is rising
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 22, 2024 AM
Sam laid out the "Trump Trade" in 2023 - so go read that for insight (use the search feature in Slack). 1600 flights canceled ... PBOC doing stimi
MAG7 - closed near the 10-W on Friday - gapped up pre-market. Showing a reversal pattern on daily.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Tested 275 but closed under that level for the week.
IWF:IWD - Under the 10W and just above the 20-week MA. Getting a little reflexive bounce in growth
INTERMARKET
T2100 - still fine - firmly in trend.
T2104 - has not done anything wrong - watching for weekly evening star reversal to come back down.
T2123 - stopped going up - it did a lot & it's resting.
T2126 - nothing broken.
WTI CRUDE - back under 80.00$- broke under friday's lows - pressing LOD in premarket. Inside week breakout lower. coming back in. In DEC - Sam wrote that Biden dropping out would cause oil volatility. Tues & Friday options now offered in this - so there are 5 expirations a week starting this week.
GOLD (futures) - broke below last weeks low but came back up into the previous weeks range.
Nat Gas - large breakout this morning - tested last weeks high already today.
Bit Coin - popped above 68k but has faded back below that level - still above 67.5k
FX
Dollar (DXY) - still above 104 but tested it last week. 104.50 hourly is a level of interest.
USDJPY - back above 156 daily but still holding under 158 daily; that is the minor channel in focus.
BONDS
TLT - popped into 93.50 premarket. still going no-where and in a wide range
TNX - 4.25% rejected price; broke below Fridays' lows. Still expect 4.00% this summer.
ZN (10Y) - 3 days of declines and today is a sharp doji so far in premarket trading.
ZT (2Y) - 4 days of decline - still within the range.
10/2 spread - price came back in the wedge from a top-side breakout.
INDEX
NYSE - swift moves lower Thursday & Friday; back below 18.5k. Weekly wedge breakout was a "Fake Breakout - Fast Failure" - still very bullish.
SPX - tested Put support 4x Friday and it held (so far). Call wall in focus as we come into the open. Sam's PT's hit. 5460 area weekly as overshoot.
SPY - bouncing - no surprise. 555 weekly is resistance. Bullish above - bearish below. Calls seen coming in as Europe Closes.
IWM - large rotation - but Sam had everyone lined up ahead of it. Cheers if you played it. "get & stay above 212.25 weekly" has been the call-out for months. Still wicked strong. still bullish.
QQQ - 479.19 weekly PT hit - overshoot into 10-W. 468 area daily still seen as a "strong potential of tag your it"
OVX - volatility in oil picking up ... (WHY...?)
VIX - was "careful careful getting digesting" - Sam mentioned ""above 14.50 is market bearish" - with 16.22 and 16.50 as resistance acting as resistance as expected. 14.88 weekly / daily is likely where we are headed. Still looks good for the pullback - but 14.88 could stop that move.
SVXY - little bounce - trend still not broken. Fell through the 55-day MA.
CHASE
IWM into 214.20
MSFT above 443 into 446 stop: 442
NVDA 120 pivot, gap above to 123,125; below 120 to 116, 106
QQQ sam thinks 468 likely tags; 484 tap maybe then lower ; 480 pivot for downside
SMCI down to 775, 745 stop: 785
SPX losing momentum; below 5540 into 5525,5505
TSLA above 252 can see 256 but sam doesnt think it has too much energy
HONORABLE MENTIONS
LLY, CRWD - high flyers that are getting whacked. "Forced Selling" was last weeks call & it's still in play.
ANF - Stay below 173 weekly (monthly better) for shorts.
ASML - a "wow" - earnings. Deserved the dump - had some good fundamental reasons for the dump. Still in trend (using the 10/21 Week MA). Monster "red" candle. That's a troubled chart.
AAPL - bearish engulfing. Sitting on 226
AMZN - still in trend; still above $180.82 weekly.
AMD - they want out. Semi's short "the money has been made" - bounced on 200-day MA into the 3-day MA.
CRWD - negative impact tech companies around the world. Friday made it to the 200-day MA. Closed above the 50-week. Damaged Badly. Left some gaps above. Monthly Support (now resistance) area 300.00$ (or the 10MA monthly). Very dangerous. Could "relief bounce" into 338 / 350 area but it is broken and it's damaged. Could see a little bounce on daily 277. The $261.81 is an area of support.
CAT - 335 short PT.
CARR - keep it above 66.32 weekly. Looks great.
EL - still bleeding; still in a downtrend.
ENPH - going no-where.
FXY - popped above 55-day MA. Going to get pushed back down eventually. Above 60.00 daily would surprise.
GLD - pullback has Sam worried. See some reversals on bigger timeframes.
GOOGL - a little bounce.
HIMS - 19.22 weekly support. 10-W support. Still don't like it.
ISRG - new highs breakout.
JMIA - still has bullish calls coming in. Still digesting
KWEB - nothing.
LLY - getting whacked. Profit taken.
MSOS - long shot - "we'll see."
MU - trend is not broken (10/21 weekly MA's have not crossed). Could pop into resistance (122 area).
META - right back into the mean - could bounce into 504 weekly before a continued short lower
MSFT - chopping the 55-day MA. Break above 446.66 if you are looking for a long into a gap fill on daily (446 area)
NVDA - has not broken key level. 122.40 is a level we can get to. 116.53 hourly has not broken.
NFLX - earnings are over. Could run into resistance (weekly 667 area). Keep it short below daily 664. Likely goes sideways for a while. Below the daily TL we could expand lower (below 626 area ... or 629 weekly). Get below 629 for a short into the 200-day MA. possible bounce into 639 to 664
NVO - short overshot the PT - very nice. Profit taking.
PCAR - Earnings in a few days; digesting the YTD anchored VWAP.
WING - still a short.
ROKU - digesting above 10/21
SNAP - no trigger
SMCI - weak. 927 weekly still resistance. 745 short PT.
SLV - pullback has Sam worried. 28 weekly / monthly. Get above that to be "very bullish." 25.65 monthly support. Below the 10W now.
$S - above the 200-day MA. $40.00 is the "IPO lows area" ... not crazy on this one. Keep it above 22.84 weekly. Getting flows because of CRWD issues.
TTD - hanging out - has not gone anywhere.
TSLA - 237.40 key weekly level - strong. Overhead daily TL (above 252 or 256 daily) we could see more.
TELL - M&A "buyout" news.
VRNA - digesting 23
VZ - came back to the 200-day. has to break 38.88 weekly or it could get defended.
XHB - has to prove it-self. 112 weekly resistance - keep it in that area.
XLP - nothing solid.
Bit Coin conference this week.
COIN - nice push last week; above 244.71 weekly - keep it above the weekly TL (call it 252/253 area). It's right into resistance. Still hanging in there ... breaking 244.71 weekly offers 212 area weekly.
MARA - best of the group; weekly bollinger has to keep going. Hold 24.00$ to cont. Earnings coming up - take care.
UBER & MRVL - warned that "can't get above" & sure enough
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/22/24