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Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 12/26/24
Welcome back! My voice is back at least. I know most of us wish market was closed until the New Year as trading volumes will be super low with new durable rotations and set-ups far and few between.
Case in point: GROWTH vs value is still in play. BUT there are divergences that intonate it could end right on cue end of year to give sway for risk-off in concentration bets. But right, MAG7 is still the show with quantum!
Speaking of QTUM, since that break-out on wkly above $66.85 Nov 22nd, this has massively outperformed. Big thanks to our live trading room moderator, Mikey, who rec’d this early. Heck, even client Tim is still adding to IONQ today.
Speaking of growth, Friday morning Dec 20th I highlighted the“GREEN SHOOTS”I saw forming. I then posted my most bullish intermarket analysis charts after the close expecting a bounce in timing with seasonality (aka Santa Rally). That has clearly happened with SPX 5850 negative gamma holding firm and price now pushing back into breakdown level of 6053 on way to 6070 before likely settling around the JPM collar of 6055 on Dec 31st.
But, under the surface, there are still intermarket tells that the price action in indices - led by MAG7 - disguises the continued weakness from spiking higher USDJPY, DXY + US 10Y.
10Y yield into 4.69 ** SHOULD ** digest there back down to 4.5% channel support. If not, then expect volatility in markets.
As I said live this morning, it is not a question of IF but WHEN this will matter - especially should the next -3% SPX day trigger CTA selling of size (= to $60B).
For now, we are waiting for market to digest this bounce and year-end, as there are no expected macro triggers expected until potentially Jan 6th election confirmation and then earnings season kicks off with banks reporting in mid-Jan, right before the Jan 20th inauguration and a new set of economic policies to test the market bulls.
Updated Stocks of Interest:
RUM still running - txs to Ryan who rec’d before it pierced 10.29 breakout, now pushing 18.
BIRD FLU watchlist was compiled by Alex, so you can see more in his channel: #kentons-corner-of-biopharma.
AR as potential trend long breakout should it hold 30.70 and get/stay > 35. Nat gas play.
DKS as potential trend long breakout should it hold 225 and get/stay > 240.
GM nice reversal of 50.50 D/W/M level. Must stay above to swing long with confidence.
TSLA from my swing long for double above 237 now 474 is still intonating a run into 502 but THEN it should rest ;-)
NVDA financed call spread is working nicely as it pushes 140.76 wkly resistance.
MBLY swing long is working. Lots of the “SAAS reacceleration” plays have been digesting not rolling over, but I don’t see new ones.
BB + GME spec longs into HF short-covering rallies into year-end are still in play.
