Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 1/17/25
With #LTR Notes - by Samantha, Rithika and Mikey
Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 1/17/25
We got our “Bounce into Inauguration”! Now what?
We have a lot of bullish weekly engulfing charts unless we get sharp de-risking ahead of the weekend toward the close.
But probabilities lead toward a weak post-Inauguration/Tuesday start of the week to test this bounce & recently annointed bulls.
Also probabilities lead toward a week start next week on my “5 Bar Rule”: after 5 strong bars in one direction, like this bounce, a digestion is due.
The “90%” up day we got on the gap down Monday/Nov 5th election gap has often led to a “90%” down day within a week or so after. Once it starts, I’ll know.
But big picture, the trend is still our friend and SPX with QQQ and DIA will likely close back above their 10W which is bullish after 5 wks of selling and breadth decay under the surface.
IWM bounced off its 50W into its 10W but candle is also bullish with NYSE cradle reversal - along with my intermarket tells for NYSE & NDX.
The most bearish of these intermarket tells got back up to its 200D but still needs to repair, so big picture, breadth is not fixed, but green shoots are there.
TSLA & NVDA are my fave MAG7 longs as TSLA held critical 390 Monthly support where I said if it doesn’t close below, it can scoop higher into 502 next few weeks.
NVDA is still my Q1 financed call spread with bet it will likely hit 170 by March 20th, and SMH 272.46 on way to 280. same timeframe It's just not weak enough so it is correcting in time not price. And so many other oversold semis are starting to come off off the bottom: QRVO, ASML, INTC etc.
Same with BTC + ETH, which I said past few weeks was not bearish; it was just correcting in time not price.
BUT, the other side of this risk profile is this: we could grind higher/sideways into Powell and BoJ end of January, but then it could start to get rocky as RRP is drawing down the TGA at the end of February, unless Bessent feeds it somehow. Again, market needs liquidity to keep it up let alone growing. Removing liquidity it is guaranteed trouble.
You know what else made a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly? TLT. USDJPY below 155 would ensure Yen & US bonds continue higher, pulling down US dollar and Yields, supporting equities until the Yen get/stays above the 10W which could very well trigger “yen carry unwind part 2” vibes. (SEE MARKET THOUGHTS)
Update On Swing/Trend Trades & Watchlist & SPX Levels: