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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
RITHIKA is stuck on a plane today, so here is my review of this morning's session.
SPX still hasn't tagged my coveted 5340. Oh well.
VIX did tag my 11.81 where I said I fully expect a bounce.
Translation: short pullback in markets: SPY, QQQ, etc.
I do not expect it to get above 13.38 this week. I said all this yday.
I warned STRONGLY to protect gold, silver, metal and mining longs.
I voiced that not only was protection a good idea but gave levels for a pullback in gold & silver that could surprise.
Similar to the time I warned when SLV hit 27.17 April 12th and we pulled back to daily gap fill at 23.90.
This pullback is a great chase back down to 27.17 monthly support on break of 28.84.
After I spoke all of the above, the level busted.
Continuous contract in gold was also a great short, working its way down to that trendline ~2230.HIMS broke 17.16 which was take profits/short level.
CRSP plays look poised for higher but no trigger.
SBUX was continuation bounce play post earnings on that 4 std deviation drop. I specifically gave 78.20 to 80.65 as PT for today. It hit!
TAN sector was running hot on expected lower yields and Yellen talking up Solar & EV tariffs. FSLR was a surprise runner.
SPWR is LRE if if IF it can stay above 2.92 wkly close. I discussed this one at length. It has 95% short interest - for a reason!! But, it can be a nice runner when shorts are scared to cover. Only play if small and you like drama. ;-))
Speaking of short covering and drama chases: NNCV + NVAX are both vaccine plays that kentons-corner-of-biopharma Slack Channel has profiled extensively. They are also heavily short, and still running.
BNTX is running into 103 PT with MRNA & PFE on vaccine lawsuit settlements.
CHINA plays are pulling back on cue. I already warned about this past week: BABA, BIDU, KWEB, JD, FXI.
PDD had a great earnings report premarket and is holding 148.30 like a champ on daily. Needs to get/stay > 153 wkly to continue higher.
Trend Fave Longs INTU + ISRG are trying to get/stay above ATH
Swing Fave Longs QCOM, IBKR, BKNG have continued higher past month.
Swing Fave Short XLE continues to work with CRAK refiners displaying the infamous daily candle formation: "fake breakout, fast failure".
Recent TOTWs - trade of the week - COST + UNH continue to work great!
long-time TREND LONGS of TJX + BJs are breaking into blue sky.
I really liked the reaction to earnings today in ADI - also now in blue sky after long time consolidating.
WSM had a huge beat post EPS this morning and has completely reversed -20% intraday. THAT'S A LOT.
ANF has a look of falling back below 140 for swing short initiation.
Good luck later:
NVDA is scheduled to report 1Q 2024 earnings on Wednesday after the market close.
Nvidia's options imply a 8.7% move in either direction by Friday.
Michael's Trading Room Summary
MAY 22, 2024 AM
Sam & Craig will have a MACRO ROUNDUP at 4PM. Jobless Claims tomorrow (220ish expected).
MAG7 - Blue Skys this week.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - popped up through 288 again; Sam said yesterday that 280 is still not off the table.
IWF:IWD - tagged 1.94 daily resistance premarket. Momentum continues to climb.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - basic ... flat.
T2104 - nothing yet.
WTI CRUDE - rolling over; soggy. Don't see the energy to move this higher.
GOLD (futures) - slightly lower. 23.78 is the level to break for a shimmy lower. Doing the thing here... just extended.
Nat Gas - all the way back up to least years levels; Get above 2.95
Bit Coin - momentum continues to climb.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - slightly higher. little bit of a bounce - but a breakdown would be better for equities.
USDJPY - still digesting a key level (156) but still above 152 (massive support). Still waiting for BOJ intervention (for the 3rd time) and so the JGB 10Y is the thing to watch (if 0.80 then 1.00).
BONDS
TLT - still hanging out at 91.30. See this going higher.
TNX - bounced into the junk off the 200-day.
ZN (10Y) - pulling back slightly.
ZT (2Y) - pulling back slightly.
10/2 spread - expecting lower (into -0.60%)
INDEX
SPX - 5340 PT.
IWM - trying to rise; nothing yet.
VIX - not in the house. 11.81 weekly is just a level; but it's one to watch. 10.60 is the next level lower (& that is a great place to pick up some cheap vol).
SVXY - nothing here.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
ADI - under the radar weekly breakout
AMD - 164 to 174; hinge strongly on NVDA earnings.
BE - 17.50 weekly resistance. Above the 200-day screaming higher.
BLNK - junk. Short covering.
BNTX - racing into 200-day MA. 100 / 101 area... getting bid up. COVID vaccine name ... short squeeze maybe and MRNA sympathy
ENVX - junk. Short covering.
CELH - Scoop pattern weekly. Not breaking out yet.
$C - looks great. Above 61.67
DELL - 140 weekly breakout
GOLD / SLV ratio - still looks great - expecting digesting.
GLD - coming back in.
HIMS - great "scoop" pattern that can digest. It's in a channel. 15.55 & then 14.57 if it continues lower.
ISRG - about to break out weekly.
INTU - about to break out weekly.
FSLR - Above 210; weekly resistance 221.88. Rate Sensitive.
NVDA - everyone is expecting a blow-out. 1025 PT would not surprise (but - then we'll see after that).
LULU - cont to fall. Just nothing here... extended. Out of favor.
LU - wide options. Thin. Violent. Down-slopping 200-day MA.
MNDY - weekly breakout level; beast. Fine.
MRNA - junky bio-tech play coming up from the bottom.
MOS - value rotation; big pop.
MMM - extended. Could fade back to the 21-day MA (99.00$ area). Keep it above 100.00$. The Monthly looks great. Solid. 109 / 112 area. Firm.
NVAX - ripper. Short Squeezed; still above 13.70. Above 15.53 we have 18.55.
NNVC - bird Flu play.
ORCL - starting a nice scoop pattern weekly.
PDD - beat. get & stay above 147.65 weekly (hit almost 160 on the hourly this morning).
PLUG - meme action.
RKT - looks good.
SLV - coming back in. 27.39 weekly as a lower PT would not surprise.
SPWR - 95% short interest; short squeeze. Possibly aiming for the 200-day again but this is a dangerous / fast mover. Stay above 2.92 as a LRE (if you love drama)
SBUX - 78.20 is the level to get above. 80 is reasonable. 80.65 likely the line in the sand.
TJX - weekly breakout;
TSLA - 190 PT weekly. Daily 186.78 is the level to get above for 196 daily PT.
TGT - earnings miss. NASTY. Should hurt the other discount centers. Landed on the 200-day. Expect some digesting here.
TNDM - coming up from the weekly bottoms. Drifting higher. Consider this as one that has not tagged the 200-week (55.00$)
UBER - intraday spike.
VKTX - likely gets defended & then moves higher.
WSM - beast. Expect profit taking.
WMB - breakout weekly. 40.76 weekly breakout point. Fading back some now; Need to see how it handles this breakout. 40.78 as it comes back in.
XVP - still bid with growth.
XLV - still bid with growth.
XRT - coming back in.
XLE - 92.50 tested. It's not holding. Not broken. 92.22 daily likely gets tested... sideways to lower.
ELF - earnings after the close
NVDA - earnings after the close
SNOW - earnings after the close
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 5/22/24