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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
Growth Rotation In Play
Yields softened on PPI miss. Oil softened. Gold is bid.
SPX opened > 5375.95 = bullish above, bearish below.
SPX 5410.42 is daily gap fill = headed there.
VIX 19.29 has been great tell for market direction. Keep using it: pushing above is market bearish & pushing into/below is market bullish.
Growth Chases are in play from my GROWTH:VALUE ratio hooking up Monday from deeply oversold.
NYFANG > 10660 WKLY SUPPORT = BULLISH; BELOW IS NOT.
NYSE cumulative breadth and volume are still greatly lagging which indicates this is still an oversold bounce from last week versus the bigger issue of broken trends/charts that need more time to repair IF bullish follow through comes through post OpEx Friday.
Translation: the semi/tech bounces are chase duration but still see falling oil + yields as bigger risk for volatility.
CPI Wednesday premarket and Japan's Parliament meeting to pressure BOJ not to hike are the main economic data that can move yields + market.
SWINGS:RKT rec'd swing long, on my bet 30Y yields would fall prompting a refi wave, is still working higher.
VRNA rec'd swing long once > 23 is moving quickly into 26.44.
ABBV, REGN, ISRG also moving firmly higher as wing-to-trend fave longs.
HIMS rec'd swing short last month still working lower into 14.67 wkly gap fill.
BABA + JD earnings Thursday: no edge, but still see months of basing before safe trend reversal/bottom fishing.
CVNA > 132.55 is bullish to 148.73, 157.74, 167 before big selling is likely.
GLW nice pullback and bounce at 37.26 wkly support; just needs to get/stay > 40.46 to move back into 52W highs
CHASES:
SMCI + DELL lead AMD + NVDA. All are moving higher on the growth rotation.
QQQ into 460.58 as long as 455.58 holds.
UPST moving into 38.73 PT
SBUX bullish chase into 93.48 = heavy resistance + watch for reversal back down to 89.
INTERMARKET ANALYSIS REVIEW TOMORROW MORNING AFTER CPI + BOJ REVIEW ;-)Rithika chase summary notes:
HIMS at risk has a gap to fill at 14.57
SPX 5375 tagged, now if it holds above we push into 5410-20 gap;
SMCI above 550 pushed into our 583 target
SBUX needs to hold over 90 to get sustainable, otherwise still at risk
QQQ filling its gap at 457; above that we have 460 pivot now becomes 456 with weakness lower
CMG 50 tagged; it is support below that if we dont hold we got 46.92
NVDA over 107 113 tagged, pushing into 115.8
AMD needs above 139 for 141 and 144
UPST 38.73 next
MSFT 410 tagged, 412 reached now needs to hold 412 for 415,417
XLF below 42.40 comes down to 41.40
AAPL 220.2 tagged, careful
Though we may look bullish on chase timeframe any weakness below 5376 pivot will invite sellers back in dont be complacent -Breadth still poor under the surface; growth to value rotation leading to some oversold bounces
Michael's Trading Room Summary
AUG 13, 2024 AM
PPI softer than expected. Weaker than expected. Deflation in Soft Commodities. Industrial Metals doing poorly. Oil is likely next in this disinflation "wave"
Tomorrow Sam & Craig will have a Macro to Micro Power Hour at 4PM.
MAG7 - MACD still has not crossed & is still under the zero line as well. Price hit the 10(D)MA yesterday and continues to struggle with that level. Still under the 20 & 50(D) MA's. Above Key level 115 area.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - three red days has put this back under the 250 level but it continues to be a broken tool.
IWF:IWD - Friday and Monday were green days; MACD has crossed but is still below the zero line. Gapped up in the premarket. Starting to "curve up' so "semi's likely to bounce. almost back to the 1.996 risk area & likely hits it's head there.
INTERMARKET
T2104 - still looking for it - don't trust the bounce.
T2123 - poor. Breadth still poor under the surface
T2126 - making a lower high.
WTI CRUDE - 79.11 taken out; tagged 80 and rejected yesterday and again this morning. Basically flat on the day - pressing against resistance.
GOLD (futures) - back above 2450 daily and into 2470 daily resistance. Signals a big breakout but has not broken out.
Bit Coin - not yet
FX
Dollar (DXY) - Below 103 again; still in the chop
USDJPY - holding under 148
BONDS
TLT - think things are different now
TNX - hit the 4% price target w/ overshoot into 3.8% PT. Now... likely gets under 3.8% this year.
Markets are loving the "Oversold Reflexive Bounce"
INDEX
NYFANG - boom - back in the channel. Massive Bounce off the 200-day but it's still broken. It's in a bear market so looking for resistance & reversal lower.
SPX - 4745 is EOY close PT. $4300 likely tagged this year. Pushed above 5376 and pushing into 5387. Needs to stay on top of that 5376 level. 5410 current chase PT.
SPY - stay above 531 to continue the advance
QQQ - 461 hourly PT. Above 455.58 is bullish chase
VIX - below 19.29 is market bullish.
CHASE
AMD needs above 139 for 141 and 144
AAPL 220.2 tagged, careful
CMG 50 tagged; it is support below that if we dont hold we got 46.92
HIMS at risk has a gap to fill at 14.57
MSFT 410 tagged, 412 reached now needs to hold 412 for 415,417
NVDA 113 tagged, 115.82 next
QQQ filling its gap at 457; above that we have 460 pivot becomes 456 with weakness gap lower
SBUX needs to hold over 90 to get sustainable, otherwise still at risk
SPX 5375 tagged, now if it holds above we have 5410-20 gap; but we have also left a gap lower if we dont hold pivot \ Though we may look bullish on chase timeframe any weakness below 5376 pivot will invite sellers back in dont be complacent
TSLA pushing into 208
UPST 38.73 next
VIX needs to break below 19.29 to continue a bullish market bent
XLF below 42.40 comes down to 41.40
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AMZN - needs time.
AMD - into 141 - could get 144 or even 150 if it get's going. Keep it above 135 hourly for a play into 140, 141 & then 144.
BABA - no edge into earnings.
COIN - could takes weeks.
CVNA - shockingly bullish. Stay above 135.
CMG - dumping this morning; still lots on range to chop around the 200 day MA. Breaking 50.00 on the hourly- that is the level right now. Hourly 51 breaking offers a continued short ... 46.92 daily would be the next lower level.
HIMS - Still above the 200-day MA; under the 55-day MA. 14.57 weekly gap (lower). Could see more pressure on this stock from LLY comments. Still looks like a great short.
INTC - coming up from the grave. At book value
LLY - looks good
MRVL - firmly defended Monday at the 200(D) MA. Still busted.
MELI - great!
NVDA - 116.60 PT.
NKE - getting a bid - maybe from $ONON and $SBUX
ON - get above 73 daily area. Does not look like it has the energy
RKT - doing well. Anything above 17.50SIGA - monkey Pox play. CDC announcement giving it volatility.
SBUX - nasty breakdown on monthly chart; news popped it today but it's still a nasty chart. 89 weekly likely resistance. Above bullish / below bearish.
SIGA - monkey Pox play. CDC announcement giving it volatility.
SMCI - $DELL follows. $AMD will follow & NVDA will follow (they all go together).
TSLA - digest 200$
UPST - nice squeeze. Choppy but bullish.
VRNA - at 25.60 hourly - PT 26.44
XLF - PT at 41 is not so hard right?
XLU - above the 10(W)
XLV - above the 10(W)
XLP - above the 10(W)
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 8/13/24