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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
FROM SAM -
FORCED SELLING IN FULL VIEW
It's kinda funny: ROKU is green. Lol
Bunch of stuff is just digesting + not involved in this FORCED SELLING down of VIP stocks of which most are semis. But let's talk about what is selling off...
It was JUST yday I posted:
"Growth pullback expected to pick up speed now that IWM has gone parabolic.
MAG7 Short Working:
QQQ < 496 = 486.86, 479.19
META weak to 486 still working from 508.37 gap down
MSFT 456 updated stop to 451 break on daily to 446, 443.40 PT
NVDA sitting on 21D at 125.60 looks ready to give sway down to 121 to start"
Overnight, HF pods couldn't take it anymore! Tech Selloff Picks Up Speed
QQQ coming into my Friday lotto 179.19 now that 486.86 broke ;-)
SPX 5575 is still my baseline bet: also said -2% is baseline bet so expecting 5505 by next week.
And we do have gaps to fill above in SPX + QQQ later - after this FORCED SELLING is done.
NYFANG still hasn't tagged 11229 so not done.
AMZN gorgeous break of 191.44 PT into 55D with 188.11 PT, now looking for 103.53 area for proper bounce.
META was fave short since it had already done the "fake breakout, fast failure" last week!
so this is just continuation and as I repeatedly warned: "there is no support below 486 until 30W near 457. Talk about a gorgeous gap on daily below 508.37 and then again today BELOW 478.89 gap on daily - leaving an island reversal!
NVDA already said short into "121 to start" with 116.60 key daily gap fill as next PT.
SMCI formed bearish engulfing on wkly as did AMD
TSM formed evening star reversal on wkly with 172.21 PT
QCOM already formed an evening star reversal on D June 20th, and gapped below 55D today with non-stop fade = so solid short. Nice H&S reversal pattern on D.
AMAT broke down July 11th with QQQs and opened below key wkly support at 238.40. Solid fade all day, not tagging 225 next PT.
ASML was fab short today given they had reason: big miss on earnings. Literally opened 978.58 and dropped to/thru 954.32 wkly support PT.
LRCX fade all day into daily trendline support at 980 from 1019 open - leaving an island reversal above. Needs to stay below 1007 wkly close.
SNPS, CDNS - and other "AI TECH ECOSYSTEM" plays hit as well
Short Covering Still In Play:
Small Caps are digesting outsized moves - specifically IWM 226.25 HR PT shown yday.
A pullback to 220 was level I gave WHILE tech sold off.
RILY + 11% Watch BYND
Pot Stocks next?
STILL ON 8D:
PLTR, TSLA,
AAPL just below so break of 226.34 sees 220.20, 216
Drug Mfg/Health Care Sector Still Strong:
AMGN, UNH, GILD - faves
Special Situation
ANF short below 173 only if it stays < 173 wkly close; otherwise, bullish with NVDA
UBER, MRVL - couldn't survive the pullback. Need to wait until they get/stay > 73, 75 respectively.
Restaurant Shorts Still Working
CMG, DPZ, WING - from 2 wks ago
Defensive ETFs still working long
XLP, XLV - KO, PEP, KHC, MCD, CAG, GIS, etc
Only Earnings Play Long I liked:
AEHR - beat + flew up 25% from 16.05 wkly support to 100W resistance at 21.23
IBKR - Trend long fave - did fine. digesting the 10W
Value Leaders Still Working:
CAT, XPO, CSX
Warm Summer Housing Market stocks doing fine:
OPEN, RDFN, HD, URI, XHB, LC, RKT, TPH, JOE
Trend Long GLP-1
LLY, NVO - profit taking on RHHBY competition; needs protecting now. Still more to come is my bet.
Warned Monday VXN was above 200D for 1st time in a long time.
VIX line in sand is 14.49 - as detailed in trading room this is very similar to 4/4 when SPX sold off -2.07% intraday peak to trough. I said wouldn't surprise me if we do it again!
ABOVE 14.49 is market bearish, below is market bullish.
And we do have gaps to fill above later - after this FORCED SELLING is done.
SVXY firmly rejected at 63.53 wkly resistance - 2%
BXM is shockingly fine, so this really tells me this is HF FACTOR ROTATION FORCED SELLING I WARNED ABOUT SINCE LAST WEEK!!Macro Stuff:
10Y still heading to 4%
USDJPY pushed down from 162 to 156 100D
MOVE softening will trigger 30Y yield to fall more...
ROTATION REMINDER: from yday:
"THIS rally in Smalls is:
1. Hedge Fund Factor Rotation Short-Covering
2. with Correlation at ATL begging to revert
3. after a breathless rally in Growth that was due a pause/profit-taking into earnings
4. at same time market bets on Trump POTUS win pushing up value/cyclical plays
5. all the while US dollar + yields soften as tailwind for it all.
It's a squeeze that can turn into a trend reversal.
I said this last week.
But for now, it is a helluva 4.4 std deviation factor rotation squeeze of size.
That likely forces more tech selling. Just sayin'."
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 17, 2024 AM
Tomorrow is Macro to Micro Power hour with Sam & Craig @ 4PM.
MAG7 - resting on the 3-day MA at the close yesterday - gapped under it today in the premarket. 120.64 is support.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Closed under 270 yesterday; 275 is a Level on Sam's radar.
IWF:IWD - Below the 10 & 20-day MA's at the close yesterday; gapped under the 50-day MA in the premarket. MACD crossed under the signal line but is still above zero line. It's a very good QQQ short when the IWF:IWD starts to peter-out.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - red
T2104 - slightly red
T2123 - red
T2126 - red
WTI CRUDE - popped back above 81.00$. Crude Inventories come out today at 10:30am Eastern.
GOLD (futures) - pushing into new highs
Nat Gas - holding at the weeks lows.
Bit Coin - made it to 65k but stalled there - dropped just below that in premarket trading.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - FIRMLY below 104; holding above 103.50$ area. Crushed. Likely bounces & pops up higher.
USDJPY - Big move below 157 daily. hitting 156.50 in premarket trading. JGB-10Y popped higher after hitting 1.00% in a gap lower. Back above 1.02% this morning in premarket trading. Rolling over on weekly.
EURUSD - bounce into weekly resistance.
BONDS
TLT - hit 94 resistance this morning. a slight fade from yesterdays close.
TNX - Closed under 4.2%. Sam still has eyes on 4.0% this summer.
10/2 curve - came back in the channel.
INDEX
NYFANG - don't think the sell-off is done.
SPX - 5650 is key; that is broken. Below 5642 as we come into the open today. they are working hard to keep it below 5650; 5667 is the level to get above to get very bullish. fighting at the 8-day.
SPY - resting on the 8-day MA.
IWM - 221 w/ overshoot to 225 was the PT yesterday - & that is done. Sam said yesterday it would likely be the end of the first move as profit taking comes to life. 220 fade PT.
QQQ - It's a very good short when the IWF:IWD starts to peter-out. Callout was break 491 with 486 PT then 479 next PT. The Lotto is firmly in play. Has room lower. 486 hourly could have been a bounce area but it didn't even bounce there (where it could / should have).
VIX - 14.49 today.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Hedge Fund Factor rotation in full view. the VIP stocks have to be sold to fuel this.
AEHR - blasted above 200-day MA. 10/21 week MA cross. 16.05 chase target last week - opened this week and continued strongly. Earnings Delight.
AAPL - break 228.87
AMD - 164.46 weekly support. 166.56 is the daily level to stay below
AVGO - getting knocked.
ARM - get below 160 to convince a short.
AMZN - 55-day MA in focus. g2r is very bearish. 191, 188, 185 short PTs. 186.45 - tagged so expect a bounce here & then a move into 184 area
ASML - large gap lower. Earnings - net earnings were not as expected. blew through the 21-week into PT (962.24)
AEHR - popped higher on news. They are buying something.
BTU - not ready.
CAT digesting fine
CMG - 54.52 short working.
CRWD - if you are pressing short - it's hitting the 55-day MA and 349.92 as short PT gap fill... Looks fine for more. Looks very weak.
DPZ - short working
DRI - bouncing up from 200-week. Oversold stuff coming up.
ELV - nasty. Not a good look. Tagged out on weekly BB and weekly Kelt. Continues to dump to the 200-day & an overshoot. (not today).
ENPH - just sitting here.
FLR - explosive breakout - passed above 50.00$.
GILD - hitting the 200-day. Still a play. Sam Likes this one.
GOOGL - soften into 180 - still buyable. 180.41 daily short PT.
GTLB - popped above the 200-day MA. Has GOOGL as an investor.
IBKR - earnings (see SCHW - had issues). Fell into 21-week MA. Has not broken 117 weekly - Sam still likes it. Getting sold on earnings.
JBHT - announced - broke lower. Has to get above.
JNJ- coming up off the bottom (GILD is Sam's favorite).
KWEB -
LLY - getting defended after 12 weeks of green closes
LRCX - gapped down below the 55-day MA.
LCID - fine.
MCD - 268 weekly PT. Great bounce in play. DRI as well.
MSFT - nothing here to rest on (daily) but has the 10W as support. PT's made.
META - great one. Broke 486 now 479 PT & we got that in the premarket. 478.89 daily gap to fill & that will fill. Violent Reversal; the 100-day MA is a possible flip point - bullish above. (478.89 let's say). 479 to 469 still PT.
MTCH - sitting on 200-day MA. Thats the level to short under.
MELI - digesting firmly.
NXPI - firm. Has done nothing wrong.
NVO - a warning... 130 is coming in
NVDA - 121 & then 116 PT. Sam said yesterday - it needs to start & it's breaking down. HFFR is not done. 115.82 as an area of interest. 4 million came in the options. Has the 55-day MA as a lower level of support. Start with that.
ROKU - great. just awesome.
RILY - that junk - if this starts getting bid up in short covering ... keep your eyes on this then the short covering signals the factor rotation starting to weaken.
SMH - 6 weeks of sideways - distribution.
SBUX - has a bounce. EV charging stations news.
SMCI - weekly bearish engulfing. Back under the 55-day MA.
TM - it's going to be a while.
TLRY - & MSOS - something is up with these pot stocks. Legislation?
TXN - breakout into weekly highs - looks great!
UBER - nasty.
UNH - great. 554.70 is breakout levels - it's lit!
WING - short working. keep it below 390
UPST - PT's made. Softens here.
UNH - great. Extended but
VLO - Aug 150 calls getting a lift.
VKTX - having issues but not falling apart
VRNA - calls still coming in. 21.33 weekly resistance taken out.
XLF - hot; GS - hot; MS - hot.
XPO - having digesting.
XLP - great breakout higher;
ZS - sideways (CRWD looks best of weakness).
EV Looks
BLNK - bid.
PLUG - bid. awesome.
CHPT - bid. awesome.
weight loss
RHHBY - weight loss business... hard to play this. Works faster than LLY (thats' their claim).
LLY - getting defended after 12 weeks of green closes
VKTX - having issues but not falling apart. 60.30 weekly is the level it needed to get above / stay above. 42.00 area is the 200-day MA. Not following through. when it gets back above 60.30... the 30-week MA line in the sand.
NVO - a warning... 130 is coming in
Communications
$T - not done.
VZ - not done
CMCSA - not done.
Restaurants
CMG - already tagged. headed to 54.52 weekly.
DPZ - needs to break. Bouncing
WING - short working. keep it below 390. Needs to break.
Warm summer housing theme
OPEN - coming back to the 200-day MA is the risk.
RDFN - coming back to the 200-day MA is the risk.
XHB - stay above 112 weekly.
Boring Oversold Plays (defensive "safety plays")
CL - still trying to take out 100.00$ weekly.
KHC - Sept calls coming in. Pushing towards the 55-day MA.
MCD - has some flow.
KO - fine. Aug 65 calls.
GIS - 200-day has went sideways and digested. 65.00 calls coming in.
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