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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/01/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
SPX below 5505 us bearish/above is bullish, but we really need a break of 5447 to have any chance of breaking down into 5375.95 Hr gap fill.
QQQ put in a doji last week, but a bearish doji. My level of 479.19 wkly close still holds: above is bullish/below is bearish. IF we can stay below 486 and break 476, then we can see a move lower into D gap fill at 468 with overshoot to 465.74 with 460.58 wkly support.
Bonds had a big bounce on spiking higher yields from:
1. France elections - even though Macron is determined not to let LePen win.
2. Much stronger USDJPY, pulling up US 10Y yields. (warning on this just below).
3. Wall St wagering Trump wins which prices in tariffs + treasuries (more deficit spending not less). Bond investors demand higher yields as a result.
With that, careful as we have JGB 10Y auction tonight and given yen is 161.73, there is always the case that BOJ could intervene, which would push up bonds - theirs + ours.
 Curiously, TLT is falling right into W/D/H support 89.88, Wouldn't surprise if we get a bounce here.
Oversold AI-software plays from early last week continue to push higher:
DDOG, NOW, MDB, SNOW, PLTR, PANW continue to delight.
AMZN pulled back last Thursday on cue at 200 into 92.50 but still looks like great TREND/SWING long. The financed call spread for SEPT is doing great (+1000%)
But the TSLA bullish risk reversal I suggested June 18th when TSLA was just above 177 Wk support is up an astonishing 16,000% percent, as rotation into MAG7 continues "out of" NVDA and into TSLA, with 206.77 AND 209 PTs getting hit today which I thought might take a few weeks more. Nope. Got there fast. So.... we should digest here before pushing higher into 217.65 and 226 monthly resistance.
AAPL pushing into Daily bull flag triggers 216 as long as it stays > 213 on way back to 220.20. Nice chase.
Otherwise, the strength is clearly in the largest, strongest moat companies: JPM, NVO, LLY, ORCL, AMZN, MSFT, NTAP ...Some charts setting up as possible bearish trend reversals like WSM or just pullback to 10W mean like COST.
CMG already pulled back into 60.48 PT and PDD continues to fall into 128/126.75.
Otherwise, volume is thin this week; aggregate options showing some fatigue (so manic buying), as growth:value ratio is in distribution indicating NDX is also at risk of correcting should semis continue to soften.
VKTX is trying to get > 57.56 after digesting the 30W past 3 weeks.
UBER would be TOTW if it can get > 73 wkly resistance.
USD is firm. Oil is seasonally strong (read: hurricane season starting early with Beryl).
And this yield spike is forcing a bear steepener that implies Trump is defacto winner after Thursday's POTUS debate, but ultimately, it is also a seasonally strong time for Nasdaq (1st half of July). Cumulative Volume is still painting a picture of #BTD over #STR in NDX - unless/until we get some macro moving news to disrupt the flows.
Likely Wed ahead of NFP pre-market Friday.
Rithika chase summary notes:
TSLA above 202 pushing to 206,208,211; likely done there above have 215
META below 500 down to 490, 479.8 stop: 504
SBUX 77 support below that very weak to 75,71
QQQ below 479 we have 476.50, eventually 465 lotto short is possible
NVDA below 121 back to 116
CHWY 29 as resistance below that come back to 27,25
COST below 856 down to 828
PDD 131 tagged then 128
$AAPL against trendline resistance, if it can get above 215,216 then can squeeze

NEW
AMD below 157 came back down to 153.9 below that 149


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JULY 01, 2024 AM

Sam will be gone from Thursday afternoon until Sunday. Trade will will be open Friday with the ladies running the show while Sam is gone.

Supreme Court decision on Trump court cases supposed to be out today around 10am (could move the DXY & the markets). Expecting low participation & light trading volumes this week.

MAG7 - breakout higher last week was given up Friday in the sell-off; still holding the breakout point - just above the 10-day

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - popped above the 288 line in the sand; bearish above / bullish below. Hitting resistance levels; bullish the DXY if we get above them... but likely peters out.

IWF:IWD - sideways at highs. small double top forming (daily chart). Does not look done;

INTERMARKET

T2104 - lite buying this morning.

T2123 - eh; nothing yet.

WTI CRUDE - moving higher from "storm news" ... "seasonally storm chasing period"

GOLD (futures) -

Bit Coin - bounced into MA resistance. Leading sector today.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - firm. Sticking around, moving higher since CPI.

USDJPY - pushing into higher resistance. new highs

EURJPY - cont to be the best currency mover.

BONDS

TLT - faded. 93 is easy; getting above that is not. 89.50 or $90 daily as a lower TL support. Coming into daily TL support really fast.

TNX - popping higher. Spiked on French elections. Yield interruption. Last time it moved like this - it was a good bond buy. still not above the 10-week. Still fighting the 200-day MA as well.

ZN (10Y) - could see a fade into the gap fill base; making HL & HH's on Daily.

ZT (2Y) - could see a fade into the gap fill base; making HL & HH's on Daily.

10/2 spread - stress from Europe

INDEX

NYSE - not excited about small caps coming up -off the bottom.

SPX - 5447 hourly support. 5505 daily resistance.

SPY - 544 - bearish below bullish above.

QQQ - 479.11 weekly level to break for a move lower. Now we have a decent weekly doji & bearish engulfing. If we open under there this week we could see some selling. Expecting some digestion. Short against 479.19 weekly. High probability lotto short - 465 into Friday. Break 476.50 daily to move into 468 daily... then 465... then 460... has to break 476.50 to get going.

BXM - solid sign of rejection.

VIX - until it gets above 14.50 it's not much of a threat. 10.60 still in play. Green - but nothing here yet really.

CHASE

$AAPL against trendline resistance, if it can get above 215,216 then can squeeze

AMGN - decent.

AMD below 158 back to 153 stop: 164

CHWY 29 as resistance below that come back to 27

COST below 856 down to 828

META below 500 down to 490, 479.8 stop: 504

NVDA below 121 back to 116

QQQ 479 still pivot to short against. QQQ below 479 we have 476.50, eventually 465 lotto short is possible

SBUX 77 support below that very weak to 75,71

TSLA above 202 pushing to 206, 208. TSLA at resistance, must base here to continue up could be done

VIX tryna bounce into 13.10, but a squeeze is barely there

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Financials have the start of earnings JULY 12... COAL Is coming back into play.

AAPL - watch this one. Needs to tag above... otherwise it rejects & rolls over. 207 weekly held well. 216 weekly resistance.

AMZN - hit 200.00$ & come back to 194.44$.

AMD - headed to the 200-day MA as a magnet.

BA - criminal lawsuits.

CVNA - digesting the PT.

CEIX - trend long.

COST - high P.E. ... if you want to short anyway it has a daily H&S ... keep it below 856 hourly for a short w/ a PT into 828 hourly & then 819 area & then 804 area. (819.50 weekly short swing PT.)

CHWY - "roaring kitty" popped this 6% from a YT video. moved into 37.63 weekly for a rejection & now digested back to Sam's PT. Should be done here unless you are "risk aware"

DDOG - digesting at TL resistance.

DIS - 200 day Tag...

DELL - consolidation at the 55-day MA. Does not look "confirming" yet.

GLD - still fine

GILD - breakout is getting digested.

JPM - coming back into play.

MELI - 1650 trigger.

META - 478.89 daily PT.

MRK - don't like it long; big bearish engulfing weekly.

NNE - interest...

NVDA - like it into 115

NOW - great move higher; digesting at resistance.

PLTR - stick the landing.

PDD - weak; PT 128 w/ overshoot into 126.75$. PDD 131 tagged then 128

ROKU - boom.

RIVN - holding the 200-day area. could take weeks or more before this is a good long.

SLV - still fine. Looking for a break to 25.00 & then we'll see

SNAP - 17.00 is trigger.

SHOP - trigger at 68

SNOW - continues to work; Impressed. Bounced (4) day.

SMCI - if you are short - watch the 800 daily support (or hourly 794 support). Below that we have 775 hourly PT. SMCI - shorts need to stay under 800.00

SBUX - looks weak.

WSM - looks like a roll-over possibility... has a H&S pattern ...

TSLA - 206.77 PT. (the 200-day MA). Could be violent around the 200-day MA. Above 200-day we could see 226 weekly TL resistance area in time. So far - really like this long. Above the 200-day offers 209 overshoot PT near term.

TTD - still doing fine.

UBER - like it above 73$. Looks like it wants to trigger. Still above the 55-day MA. Still in accumulation... bullish bent.

VKTX - safer long above 60.30$ weekly. Get / stay above the 10-W again to be very dynamic. "trying" better above 57.56 daily.

XME - little bounce.

XLE - looking a lot better; needs to stay above 55-day MA daily.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.