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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
PANIC BUYING
Suffice to say QQQ into 473.82 daily trendline PT is about to hit.
SPX moved quickly into 5524 weekly PT.
The PANIC BUYING is reaching a crescendo in BXM.
SVXY has made its way back to 61.8 Fib level as discussed.
VIX is back to its 200D so Vol sellers have made their money.
SMH strength was best chase this week:
NVDA into 122.10 daily gap fill, AMD into 145 then 147 overshoot, SMCI & DELL & MU off major gap fill weekly support.
Macro stuff to keep in mind:
USDJPY > 149 = 152 (bullish)
TNX > 3.8% with USD bouncing on good economic data is bullish Markets.
And we got the trifecta this morning: jobless claims falling, retail spending rising and Walmart seeing no consumer spend or deflation problems.
MOSTLY, my growth rotation is still in play into 2.0 ratio as predicted since my return Monday morning.
VRNA swing long continued into 28.56. Should digest here but I still have 37.55 in time.
XLP swing long pushing > 52W highs from WMT, DLTR etc.
AMZN rec'd chase long at open on solid retail sales didn't disappoint - now above 175 PT and climbing into 180 at 10W next.
DIS chase out of bollinger band squeeze is also looking good > 86.50 to 88.50 1st PT on way to 89.30/90.
So make hay while the sun shines but expect OPEX to introduce a wee bit of chop then digestion next week into Jackson Hole.
SAM: From TheMarketEar ... so everyone sees the same thing..."So far the bounce has played out very well, but note the SPX is hitting the short term trend line, as well as the 50 day. Let's see how this plays out from here, but the "easy" part of the bounce is over."Rithika chase summary notes:
Market gapped this morning on bullish economic news
However, with options expiration tomorrow, sam thinks it hits its head tomorrow and cause some selling into lower gap fills
IWM over 210.8 can push into 212.5
SPX 5522 reaching if momentum persists we have 5554 which is weekly resistance; 5495 still pivot
QQQ pushing into 473,475 ; 468 becomes pivot for 461 if weakness creeps in
Oil is rangebound with DXY bouncing
SMCI over 583 can push into 605,620
NVDA can push into 126.88 before earnings
AMD pushing into 144 above that we have 147.4
TSLA 212.73 is resistance if it breaks above can see 217
DIS over 86.88 can push into 88.5
NKE stays over 81 on the daily can push into 83.30
ULTA digests 356 we can see 372,381
DELL over 105 continuing to push into 109
Michael's Trading Room Summary
AUG 15, 2024 AM
MAG7 - hitting 50-day resistance; jumped over the 20-day MA in premarket trading. MACD starting to cross (but it's still very much under the zero line). 120 daily resistance... above we have 1.681 daily fib. Bullish above 110 area daily level & bearish below
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - moving higher with the SPX - so it's not working right now.
IWF:IWD - the bounce continues higher - touching 2.00 this morning in premarket trading. Above 2.0 would be very bullish.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - still in trend- not rolling over. The stochastic is weakening. Price is going up ... so that is divergence.
T2123 - better - but not a lot. Gapped down weekly. Stabilized at the 21 & looks like it wants to move higher.
T2126 - back at weekly resistance.
WTI CRUDE - hit 77 premarket; 80 held as resistance. 75.65 daily support. Could see inverse H&S & a push into 83 but not excited above it.
GOLD (futures) - 2480 still acting as weekly resistance. Broke under 2440 daily. Falling from the strength of the DXY. Getting tapped back.
Nat Gas - stalled at resistance.
Bit Coin - at 59k ... after breaking under 60k yesterday.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - popped up on economic news this morning; back above 103. Needed to get above 102.60 area. Rising on a sign of economic strength (Retail Sales, Walmart CEO, and jobless Claims)
USDJPY - crossed back above 149 this morning. Sam said we'd test that & cheers... but has to get above it - not just test it ... above that we can get into 152 area.
BONDS
TLT - fell below 97 daily.
TNX - Popped above 3.9% this morning. 3.8 yearly support holding. Back above 4% would be more bullish the market if we do. "bounce into resistance" is the POV at the moment.
ZN (10Y) - Short Covering in the recent "global derisking" getting unwound ... Solid drop under 113 daily & coming bck down. Digesting.
ZT (2Y) - Short Covering in the recent "global derisking" getting unwound ... Solid drop into 103 area daily & coming bck down. Digesting.
10/2 spread - tagged the zero line - faded back ... derisked into it & got "saved" ... now it's turning into Jackson Hole and Sept FOMC.
INDEX
NYFANG - morning star reversal weekly w/ a bounce off the 200day MA
NYSE - closed near 18,500 yesterday (18,800 weekly resistance).
SPX - closed above 5450 yesterday. Anything above 5376 green. Could go into 5524, 5555, then 5639. 5524 weekly is likely that is it - but if it keeps going - then you have the levels. Sam wrote this up yesterday in the Slack.
SPY - Closed at 543.75 but reached +549 premarket
IWM - Closed down at 206.68 but tagged the 211 area premarket.
QQQ - Closed 462.73 but popped into +468.32 premarket. Gap Fill at 495 can not be ruled out. Grinding higher into OpEx & "growth slowdown fears" getting talked back. back up to the first week of Aug. 475 / 474 area. QQQ - 473.82 likely gets tagged before OpEx.
VIX - trying to cross under 15.50 in the premarket. Market Bullish under 19.00$
BXM - back into the weekly highs - took them out. A little over-valued. "hikes are getting priced out"... has to come back inside 1918 to consider being bearish.
VVIX - has to break 92 ... (we are still above 100)
SVXY - focus on the 200-day MA. Get back above that.
CHASE
AMD pushing into 144 above that we have 147.4
DIS over 86.88 can push into 88.5 | Dis gets over 88.5 then can push into 89.30-90 ( 21 day)
IWM needs to stick its landing at 210.8 to push higher... get to 212.25 & then "let's see" | IWM held now pushing into 212.5
NKE stays over 81 on the daily can push into 83.30
NVDA can push into 126.88 before earnings sam says
QQQ 468 pivot likely fills gap 461 when this run Is done
SMCI over 583 can push into 605,620
SPX 5495 pivot, looking tired below we have gapfill to 5452; above 5508 we have 5522
TSLA 212.73 is resistance if it breaks above can see 217
ULTA digests 356 we can see 372,381
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AMD - 145 is going to get hit. Above 141 - above the 21 ...
ANF - getting another pump from retail sales data.
AMZN - great. Bounced on the 100.. back to 175... still in bounce mode. Gapped above the 200-day. Anything above the 200 ...
BTU - Elliot is out.. we'll see if there is any change.
BABA - nice defense. It's popping back after dropping.
CSCO - up from Layoff news. 44.50 is quarterly support.
COST - popped with WMT news. 10/21 weekly has not broken. Needed to stay above 850 ... all good & it's trying to turn higher.
DIS - Hourly BB squeeze - looks good above 86.50 for a squeeze long. 88.50 as PT. Next is 89.30 then into 90.00$
DLTR - popping on WMT news. Staples taking off nicely.
DKNG - 34.50 weekly resistance. Looks fine. Get above 34 .. IF / THEN ... 35.36 is gap fill.
DELL - 116.85 weekly PT. Overshot the 200-day and coming back into it. Still under the 55-day.
EWG - popped above the 55-day MA. Oversold bounce back into resistance ... give it some time.
GOLD /SILVER ratio - silver trying to bounce.
GLD - not broken.
GOOGL - DOJ threat still holding it back.
HALO - 59.50 weekly PT / resistance.
KRE - get above 54.63 weekly.
META - great;
MRVL - 68 weekly. Really has to stay above / get above to continue.
NVDA - left two gaps below on intraday
PPC - going great!
PYPL - held great above 64.40.
SIRI - W Buffet bought into this - it's up today
SMCI - still under the 200-day & 55-day MA.
SE - hitting monthly TL resistance. If we close above that it's bullish. Likely digests into 80 / 75 area weekly. If we hold 75 it's bullish.
TGT - getting a lift. Came into the 400-week, huge turn around here.
TSLA - above hourly 212.73 offers 217 - over-shot. 265 if we can cont to push here.
TEVA - nice weekly breakout. Looks good. Back to the 400-week. Low volume. News is out on a drug - giving it a lift.
ULTA - popped into the 55-day MA. Value Shopper W Buffet was announced as buying into it. 372 PT for now. (we are at 362 premarket). Needs to get beyond that 372 for a continued move.
UBER - 73.82 weekly is the trigger. Nothing yet.
UPST - anything above Weekly $26 is decent.
VRNA - what a beast. From 17 ... above the weekly resistance of 26.44 now. Still bid. Guess what...? Sam's call that it would double is looking great.
WMT - nice pop weekly into highs. 71.33 weekly support. Above the MA's.
XLP - if you are long here your doing great this morning.
XLF - gap up - outside the hourly BB so careful... has not done anything wrong yet. 43.54 weekly resistance.
Strong long names
HALO - going great.
PPC - going great!
SE - going great!
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