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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
FROM SAM -
TIMING DEFLATION & QQQ TOP & ROTATIONI started off the premarket review discussing my long bond thesis on deflation impulse as posted since May and then doubling down in long client post June 20th.CPI printed its first negative MoM print since MAY 2020, and with that:
Bonds spiked as yields crashed - again, my baseline bet is we break 4.2% down to 4% this summer.
USDJPY dove - as noted Yen was wicked oversold and due a bounce.
QQQ spiked into my $504 print premarket and then sold off thru 498 hrly gap fill into 8D at 494 with 491 my next Chase short PT.
SPX massive short bet as posted yday for clients under #samanthas-market-thoughts showed 5650 as short level to stay below.
Growth-to-Value rotation ratio indicated the MAG7 + SEMI roll-over right on cue.
Best chases were:
COST SHORT - said green to red was baseline bet with cradle formation on daily into 863.52, 556, 849 PTs. ALL HAVE HIT
AAPL SHORT - said 228.78 hr gap fill
QQQ SHORT - said at open I see 498 then 491 this week. We are almost there.
SPX SHORT - said gap fill of 5583 as 1st PT
MSFT SHORT - said break of 464 wiykd bring 456 then 453.60 to 451. ALL HIT
IWM LONG - said when +1.78% that JULY 19 $212C heavily bid - They doubled
Very productive trading long value and short growth, but now we need to see follow through, and here's the thing: My MAG7 ratio has NOT hit PT so I can imagine that tech may have another bounce this earnings season to get me my 181.8 Fib Level in that ratio!!NEW
Last but not least, TSLA TRIGGERED 265 SHORT on this news:
Tesla, $TSLA, plans to delay Robotaxi unveiling to October from August, per Bloomberg.ONE more thing: UBER just saw yuge volume. This actually looks ready. LOL
LOL. BioTech Fave Swing Longs are also still working despite the market swoon:
VRNA + 16.40% IS A BEAUTY
TGTX +6% is well on its way
VKTX +2.22% looks coiled for higher (edited)Rithika chase summary notes:
BIDU above 98 into 104
IWM above 207 pushed into 209 trying 211 next
TSLA tried to get above 270 and reversed with the rest of the market below 265 into 260, 256
AAPL came back down to fill gap at 228.8 below 232
COST turned red to green below 900 into 880, 863 overshot 850 now into 840
QQQ after some digestion at 498/499, has a gap to fill at 491 already a big move today
MSFT below 461 came back down to 456, after some digestion 451 next
SPY has a gap to fill at 556
SNAP needs to hold above 17 and stick landing to push to 19
PFE needs to digest above 28.69 200 day to push into 29.8,31
NKE could have an oversold bounce off 72.64 into 74.14
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 11, 2024 AM
Gold rises after US CPI data shows a further cooling in inflation. US CPI inflation drops to 3% in June vs. 3.1% expected. First "Negative" CPI print since MAY 2020.
MAG7 - after stalling for a few days at highs - breakout into new highs leaves us below Sam's 132 PT (we are still under 130). Still holding highs - still bullish & still above all MA's on daily / weekly.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - WE BROKE THE 275 LEVEL ... finally.
IWF:IWD - after making new highs yesterday it closed "down on the day" but still closed higher than the previous day's close. this morning - we gapped up and fell back to the close of yesterday. Still above the MA's on daily 7 weekly. Sam said looking for a top & then "there ya go..." - maybe she saw a topping pattern?
WTI CRUDE - still between 80 & 84 daily... channel of chop. The underlying is something Sam is "more bearish than the average bear"
GOLD (futures) - above 2400 on that falling DXY.
Nat Gas - slight pause in the fall... didn't last & we are back to falling again.
Bit Coin - tried for 2 days to get past 59k (daily) yet still below this resistance.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - large move lower on CPI data. Below 104.50$ & looks like it wants to hit 104. US Dollar sinks after CPI locks in September rate cut
USDJPY - dropped hard on CPI - now below 158 daily... massive move lower. 55-day MA support. 55-day MA support. 55-day MA support. 55-day MA support. 55-day MA support. 55-day MA support. 55-day MA support. 55-day MA support. 55-day MA support.
BONDS
TLT - Large gap up - now above 93.50 on daily. 94.50 daily resistance. Could see 101 (but not more than 101). Think it's fine.
TNX - Below 4.2% this morning; dropped on CPI data.
ZN (10Y) - Breakout above resistance daily;
ZT (2Y) - Firm breakout above resistance.
INDEX
NYSE - Above 18.2K after breaking out of daily / weekly resistance.
SPX - major league bid; 5650 is resistance unless we get above.
SPY - holding up. Has a gap fill hourly 556.
DIA - coming in for 400 in diamonds
IWM - small caps moving on falling yields & bonds spiking.
QQQ - 504 / 507 PT done. Stunning reversal lower. 491 w/ a possible overshoot into 486 area as a short PT play.
CHASE
AAPL below 232 potential down to 228.78 for a gapfill (*Tagged already*)
COST below 900 into 880, 863 stop: 910. COST 840 next
MSFT - 456 tagged. If that breaks next is 453, 451
NKE could have an oversold bounce off 72.64 into 74.14
PFE needs to digest above 28.69 200 day to push into 29.8,31
QQQ after some digestion at 498/499, has a gap to fill at 491 already a big move today
SNAP needs to hold above 17 and stick landing to push to 19
SPY has a gap to fill at 556
TSLA trying for that 280 but careful it is getting very exuberant could reverse at any point
TREND
IRM - Trend Long - still nice.
TJX - Trend Long - still nice.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
EARNINGS WILL MATTER - (THAT STARTS TOMORROW). Companies still guiding lower. SEMI's still the poster child of excitement.
AMD - not falling apart.
APLD - stay above 5.00$. Big bearish engulfing so careful.
AAPL - a little soft. Shake n bake to 228.78 gap fill. (THIS PT hit)
AMZN - prime day in 2-weeks.
AMGN - get above 326.
BIDU - popped on news. (Robo-taxi)
BAC - had some bullish options bets (42$ calls came in for MAR 2025).
COST - g2r. dumped - down now 1.5%. 863 short pt hit. second PT hit as well.
$C - coming in a bit.
DAL - worthy of a bounce.
DIS - 2 levels of weekly support.
DRI - fighting the 55-day
ENPH - pushing into $111.44. Against the 200-day MA.
EA - someone keeps coming in. Up 1.5%
GLD - Trend is still up; spiking higher w/ a falling DXY.
GS - like it breaking out
KRE - get & Stay above to confirm.
KO - raising their prices didn't help their guidance.
LC - popping on yields - junk. popping through the daily bollinger bands. Over-head TL on weekly.
MSFT - breaking 464 again. 456 PT hit. 451 is next PT.
MU - resistance
NFLX - resistance
MGM - getting chased hot.
MRVL - not going to work.
MS - like it breaking out
NVDA - getting the treatment. Next Gap 128.
NKE - horrible. Consumer Play.
NEM - get back above 46 weekly.
PFE - think it's going to be a while.
PYPL - 61.30 PT.
PLTR - "scoop" pattern.
ROKU - good above 71 but think it doesn't get above 71. likely hits the BB & then we'll see.
RKT - can it get above 15.00$?
RUN - started to move yesterday
SPWR - starting to move yesterday
SLV - Trend is still up; spiking higher w/ a falling DXY.
SNAP - above 17$ needs to keep it.
SNOW - fighting the 55-day. Still under it.
SBUX - keep it above 72.35 hourly.
SWK - stay above 84.44 weekly.
TSLA - hit 266.66 & that may be a sign
URA - 32.60 weekly is trigger for breakout trade.
UPST - love this. Awesome job.
$U - bottom fishing play. popped hard.
VLO - worthy of a bounce - still think it can break
VKTX - tapped down at resistance
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