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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
SPX ending the week symbolically at 5300
QQQ pushing towards 455
TNX breaks 4.324, can bring an air pocket of lower for 10Y yields into 4.2, which could trigger bonds higher - especially the the 2Y T-Note futures higher as shorts cover.
DXY rejecting at resistance helping the market regain bid again
Breadth is still green and moving higher, hard to short a market when its like this
Biggest multi-week/month sector rotations still working!!!
CHINA
GOLD/SILVER/MINERS
INDUSTRIAL METALS
Recently recommended sector rotation moves this week:
BITCOIN breakout working: HOOD, MSTR, GBTC all discussed
SEMIS like NVDA, SMCI, AMD
COST 795 pivot, wait for next week open to trade the direction
MSOS needs 10.30 to break to 11.30 and higher
AMD 169.52 is daily resistance watch for some digestion here , stay above 166.5 when it digests it can move into 174,185
NVDA above 952 can see 964,970
Bitcoin continuing its breakout
BABA 88 tagged digesting on its way to 92,95
MSTR 1500 tagged overshooting to 1550,1584
SMCI needs above 927 to breakout to 956,995
AA approaching 41.36 target
if GDX can break above 36.50 , we have a nice trend reversal higher
UNH 525.6 tagged, next is 532
PDD pushing along 151 next then 155,160
Michael's Trading Room Summary
MAY 17, 2024 AM
IWF:IWD - growth resurgence; bubbling back up.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - still bullish; may be time for a pause (summer chop).
T2104 - softening within the bullish volumes - not seeing "net buying" but it's not selling off yet either.
T2123 - breadth continues to expand higher.
T2126 -right into weekly resistance.
WTI CRUDE - really sideways.
GOLD (futures) -
Bit Coin - Bitcoin continuing its breakout - Sam likes HOOD as a proxy. PPO needs to roll over 0, to start a direction
FX
Dollar (DXY) - faded into the weekly lower TL and tagged it.
USDJPY - still holding near the highs; sideways now for the 3rd day. We have set a lower high pivot
BONDS
TLT - hit the 200-day MA & rejected. Fell back hard towards the 55-day MA. Hit the 92 level. Getting above that 200-day MA will be bullish for bonds but we are not there. Still see a bullish backdrop in bonds.
TNX - bounced on support (not a surprise). Baseline bet... THIS MATTERS. Bounced on the 200day MA. Everything hinges on the 200-day MA holding or breaking. Warm Summer Housing theme is directly connected to this
ZN (10Y) - came back down. Still expecting a rise into 110
ZT (2Y) - came back down. Still expecting a rise.
INDEX
SPX - bullish backdrop continues. Dollar & yields cont to fall; CTA's continue to buy. Quants still highlighting IV suppression. Options Expiration today (OpEx). Expecting this bullish backdrop to continue until there is a macro interruption. Soggy to South is the base-case today. Let's see what happens at 5292 support on the hourly.
SPY - blue shy on the week
IWM - still under the 215 pivot (weekly) but looks to close for the 4th week in the green; should hit it's head next week.
QQQ - blue shy on the week
VIX - 11.80 & then 11.00 before any expected volatility.
SVXY - bullish into the highs daily / weekly. Still going. extended.
BXM - long & strong. OpEx today - so a little choppy. Weekly backdrop is still bullish. Waiting on this to indicate some weakness (still waiting).
CHASE
AA approaching 41.36 target
AMD - 169.52 is daily resistance watch for some digestion here , stay above 166.5 when it digests it can move into 174,185.
BABA 88 tagged digesting on its way to 92,95. BABA pushing along
COST 795 pivot, wait for next week open to trade the direction
GDX if this can break above 36.50 , we have a nice trend reversal higher
MSOS needs 10.30 to break to 11.30 and higher
MSTR 1500 tagged overshooting to 1550,1584
NVDA above 952 can see 964, 970
SMCI needs above 927 to breakout to 956,995
TNX - breaks 43.2 , airpocket of risk lower
UNH 525.6 tagged, next is 532
TREND
MCO - new TREND LONG FAVE ... Must close above 407.73 this month, but so far this is setting up as gorgeous bullish engulfing on monthly after a six month consolidation just under ATH, after bouncing strongly off the 200D/10M at 363. Yes, it is also a Buffett holding. Options are very thin. But it does have a very nice chart.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AI Data Centers still getting held back due to energy restrictions. MAG7 names continue higher. Expecting some volatility in the copper space. GOLD / SILVER ratio chart is the most bullish chart in Sam's data set.
AA - 41.36 weekly PT tagged.
AMZN - still under 188 weekly; bullish above. Stay above 175 if you don't want to wait for the breakout. On the other side of that bullish trade - if it breaks 183.50 then we have weakness into 180 (or the 55-day). If that breaks - then gap fill at 174. 10/21 still in play (on weekly).
AMD - 164.46 weekly PT taken out. Tagged 166.55 daily gap fill. Inverse H&S daily. Above the 55-day MA. Resistance at 169.52. Stay above 166.55 daily could offer 185 PT. "IF/THEN" - 164 offers 174 offers 184 (weekly). Hitting the 21 week.
ANF - just not willing to roll over; still not giving up.
AAPL - 191 resistance - good place for it to quiet.
BSY - higher into blue sky
BA - hitting the 55-day.
BABA - nice advance. Above the 200day. Bollinger / Keltner weekly breakout. Hedge Funds are long here - great sector rotation. Still nothing wrong with this. Still looks good. Above the 82.81 is positive. Still a down-slopping 200day MA. Still under the 100week. Options - showing they are just starting to position into this. 92.92 weekly PT. 96.68 Long is likely where it it's head.
COST - only bearish if it comes back in; DOJI is just indecision.
CRWD - great job.
CVAC - bird flu related. Low priced stock - biotech. extended pact the weekly PT of 3.15$. The MM is 1.00 - which offers 4.15$ as a PT. Careful. Down-slopping MA's. NNVC also in the same space.
COIN - corrected in time; has not broke the trend (weekly). Still rolling over. 194 area is a big tell... breaking 200 will tell us more & we have a clear path to that
EOLS - crappy options. Better above 14.11
ENPH - needs to breakout of the wedge.
GLD - scooping higher. pretty.
GBTC - Above the 55-day MA.
GDX - had a great quarter. 36.82 weekly resistance. Miners should be smoking hot for earnings or they are doing something wrong.
HOOD - a better bit coin proxy. Get above 19.23 into 20.20 & above that ... it's very positive.
IIPR - 115.55 PT.
JD - PT is 35.00
LLY & NVO - completely reversed & moved higher. Market is very strong & they don't want to sell these.
MSOS - close above 10.30 weekly for a nice move... close above 11.30 to have hot fire flames.
NVDA - hitting 950 PT and now it's getting soft; above that is very bullish.
NVO & LLY - completely reversed & moved higher. Market is very strong & they don't want to sell these.
NNVC - bird flu related. Low priced stock - biotech. extended pact the weekly PT Careful. Down-slopping MA's. CVAC - also in the same space.
PDD - buying just keeps coming in. Still bullish on this. Looks bid.
PBF - back above the 200-day.
SLV - breakout above 27 daily; hitting 28 weekly resistance.
SMCI - bullish above 927 on weekly;
UNG - violent.
VLO - Needs to hold above 160.50 or it can see 152.
XLV - moving higher.
XLP - moving higher.
XLU - moving higher.
XME - breakout. 66.66 PT.
GLP - weightloss Drugs
NVO - LLY - VKTX -
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 5/17/24