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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 7/02/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
VERY little I like here - other than CONCENTRATION risk plays already discussed:

TSLA, AMZN, AAPL - faves

GOOGL, MSFT, META, NFLX have done nothing wrong either

NVDA however is a cont'd short. I like the "h" pattern forming on the daily which loosely translated means as long as it stays < 127, I can see 119.44 breaking on way back down to 115, 110, 106.47 PT

Other than that, ICE, IBKR, PLTR look like nice breakouts higher.

UBER, SNAP, SHOP, MELI et al have NOT triggered long yet.

BABA has massive stock buybacks in place & yet I don't think it's ready either. Let's see what happens at ~$70 wkly support.

AAPL chase into 220.20 hit

AMZN financed call spread into SEPT still working GREAT

TSLA #TOTW was amazing:

*Stock is up 30% since recommending.

**The JULY $200C went from 6.50 to $31, a 377% gain.

***The AUG bull risk reversal went from near scratch to $34.70, a near 35000% gain.

BUT the breadth breakdown under the surface in NYSE & NDX equal weight has me worried.

Macro Stuff:

I still see a firm USD forming, and this bond trounce looks knee-jerk & likely reverses in coming weeks.

It seems knee-jerk move past 2 days in thin liquidity bond market from surprise events:

Biden as doubtful POTUS nominee by Dems

Trump getting a pass by SCOTUS on immunity

MAGA wave in Europe specifically LePen in France

Same time USDJPY is spiking higher pulling 10Y yields with it

EM stress from strong dollar

My bet: once growth slows down - like NFP moving higher into 4.2% - yields move lower into 4.0% (bullish bonds) - but end of summer stuff. Later - EOY/2025 - yields can move higher on QE/inflation/Trump - where bond holders demand higher yields for the risk.

Right now, I wouldn't be surprised if BOJ does an emergency intervention Friday.

TRADING ROOM IS OPEN WED MORNING even though market closes early.

And ARCHNA, RITHIKA & MIKEY will run trading room Friday while I am out of town.

Have a great holiday if you are traveling!!

Rithika chase summary notes:

Lot of divergence under the surface with no confirmation of a breakdown in NYSE and Nasdaq

DXY strength potentially reprices earnings and put pressure in the market

TSLA opened above 215 into 226 and 230, now into trend line resistance likely cools down

CHWY below 25 down to 23.74, 22.8

AAPL lot of flow coming in, above 216 squeeze into 220, 222

NVO coming back down to 135

NVDA below 121 back down to 116 stop: 125

LLY below 890 back down to 883,869 stop: 900

ROKU below 62 back into 59

NFLX under 680 back to 670,660


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Michael's Trading Room Summary

JULY 2, 2024 AM

MAG7 - testing highs on daily after testing the 10-MA daily & bouncing up from it to close near the highs yesterday. Cont higher - PT 130. Rally in mag7 not over.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - breakout & close above 288 yesterday; still under 300 but above 288. (Higher is bad for the S&P).

IWF:IWD - testing highs on daily after testing the 10-MA daily & bouncing up from it to close at the highs yesterday.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - pinned; could push higher or roll over.

T2126 - sideways.

WTI CRUDE - above 84 this morning. higher by nearly 1.00%. Strange Draw by the EIA last week, risk premiums were taken out, middle east conflict, Hurricane Risk - ect ect. Continuation in Crude... right back into the earlier "right shoulder." "Double whammy" to world economies.

GOLD (futures) - still lower highs on daily; still sideways over the last week of so; holding above 2300 but stuck under 2350 area. Digesting sideways for weeks & weeks now; not really moving after solid dumps.

Nat Gas - broke 2.50 and pointing lower.

Bit Coin - popped briefly above 63k before fading back. Holding near 63k but still under it.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - rejected 106 again; back under it but not by much. Firm. Sideways under 106.20. Weekly show how 100 is so strong. Trendline under price has worked well; very firm. Higher (relative) to rest of the world. Hasn't spiked higher (yet) but on watch for that. Eventually will become a head-wind.

USDJPY - 161.50 tested again; strong. a threat of intervention still on table. JGB-10Y is up 3% this morning. Back to 1.10% & strong on daily. Real Risk here.

EURUSD - mid-range - chopping within the wide range daily.

BONDS

IRX - watching for moves over the next few years. can it follow-through

TLT - big waterfall moves in the past few days. reflexive bounce back above 90.50 daily this morning. Not trusting the bond dump. The gap down seems to be more of a "knee jerk" reaction. The 200-day MA - is starting to flatten out; 89.50 is a level to stay above if we are to see this move higher (like 92 area.)

TNX - popped above 4.450 yesterday but fell back below this morning. Still in yesterdays range but at the low side of it.

ZN (10Y) - still in range. Large gap (much lower).

ZT (2Y) - still in range. Large Gap below. Could have a little more to go (lower) before the markets start to care.

10/2 spread - very steep moves higher (back into the wedge). Still looking for a lower gap fill around 0.60%.

INDEX

NYSE - back below 18k. Closed near lows yesterday

SPY - 544 line we are dancing with. Bullish above / bearish below. 2-bar reversal weekly.

QQQ - 479 stubborn. Still have not broke it solid.

BXM - crazy still; bullish.

CHASE

AAPL lot of flow coming in, if above 216 which it is now holding can squeeze into 220, 222

CHWY below 25 down to 23.74, 22.8

LLY - as a chase short - 883 PT taken out. LLY below 890 back down to 883,869 stop: 900

NVO coming back down to 135

NVDA below 121 back down to 116 stop: 125

TSLA continued up, bullish into 226 hold above 217. TSLA potential overshoot into 230 likely done there. TSLA trendline tagged at 230 careful

TREND

IBKR - been great above the 10W... coming back to the highs; above 124 is bullish.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AAPL lot of flow coming in, if above 216 which it is now holding can squeeze into 220, 222

AMZN - in trend

CMG - 60.48 PT & came back in.

CI - does not look great.

$F - don't like it.

GLD - expect a shake n bake.

GE - finally sideways. Long time coming.

GNRC - bottom-fishing play. Above 156.50 it could go. Don't think it's ready

ICE - good;

IBKR - been great above the 10W... coming back to the highs; above 124 is bullish.

META - needs 514. Not good enough

MMM - 100.00$ held as support hourly; needs to hold. Still above the 55-day MA

MSFT - in trend

NFLX - not good enough.

NVDA - 116.53 next PT. 121.20, 116.53, 110, 106 PT's lower & lower with a bounce at each level.

PYPL - if it can hold 57.50$ hourly. 60.50 area PT. Still under the 200-day.

PDD - likely hits 128 with overshoot into 126.75

SLV - expect a shake n bake.

TSLA - PT taken out (cheer for that). Solid above the 200-day MA. Inverse H&S weekly. Could see a continued move into the weekly TL & could see 226 weekly in time. TSLA - got the nod & a rotation of money. 230 PT. Today it was Powell and TSLA

VKTX - keep it above 52.60; still doing good.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.