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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/12/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

Back in Jan of this year, I gave my bullish price targets for 2024:
SPX $5340
QQQ $444 then $472Call it lucky of good, but they have hit.
(QQQ did in fact hit 444 before pulling back to 413 in April, reversed and here we are!)
So now what?

  1. We melt up - but Powell might have something to say about that later if he pushes rate cuts out to "later this year/early next year" and market is disappointed.

  2. We grind sideways this summer around this level - my baseline bet - as 10Y falls into 4.2%

  3. Profit taking kicks in and we form some reversal pattern of significance to interrupt the bullish complacency & positioning.

In the meantime:

  1. My "Warm Summer Housing Market" call is in full view as yields soften.

  2. My "Bonds are Bid" call since April 30th is in full view when/if TLT can get/stay > $93 and 10Y continues to fall into 4.2%. "What happens if yields crash down not up?" I wrote about this a month ago so good time to review ;-)

  3. Growth continues to outperform as Value plays & NYSE breadth stagnate/fall.

  4. XLU, XLV, XLP defensive names are sideways while SMH + XLK leads with XLRE & IWM are having a strong resurgence on falling yields.

  5. It is still a stock picker's market, and I continue to focus on the strongest stocks within the strongest sectors that are in rotation until we get the next macro trigger, sector rotation or volatility to trigger an equity pullback. I think that level could appear ONCE the 10Y breaks below 4.2% and unemployment rate breaks above 4.2%

Swing Short rec'd of mine in CELH + MNST still working as does XLE + VLO shorts into their respective 200D.Swing Long rec'd of mine in AMZN, GLW , but PYPL got hit on Apple's WWDC event with their "Tap to Pay" feature so $68 has not triggered that long. PLTR however is strong with GM & HOOD.
Don't miss #kentons-corner-biopharm for the hottest picks in this space.
Alexander has been ON FIRE: ISRG, RNA, MREO, GH

Lots of housing plays have seen movement of size like Z up 13% (TREE, LC, ITB, etc)
My rec'd: RKT has triggered, finally - needs to close > 15.08 on daily.
Lots of biotech plays have seen movement of size & love falling yields:
CRSP triggered Mon at 58.35 now 66.87 PT
ISRG triggered last week with close > 404 now 227
GH triggered at 27 two weeks ago now pushing 32
RNA rec'd at $15 back in Feb is not $38! 
GOOGL above 179 we have 181, 183
AMZN approaching 188 next is 190 above
ORCL tagged and overshooting, stay above 132 prior high n remains bullish
SHOP above 64,20 can see 67-67.50
MSFT 431 tagged and overshooting into next target at 436.4, 449.48
NVDA above 120 is bullish into 130,135
CVNA above 112 next is 115
MU above 136 into 140

on the Fave swing/trend long plays...UBER looks great off 63.53 wkly support, now above 69.30 daily support. Just needs to get/stay > 73.05 wkly close to be back in trend!
AMZN looks great having filled $174 daily gap fill I was focused on. Now it just needs to get/stay > 188 to move like AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA into ATH
GOOGL above 179 we have 181, 183
ORCL tagged and overshooting, stay above 132 prior high n remains bullish
SHOP above 64,20 can see 67-67.50
MSFT 431 tagged and overshooting into next target at 436.4, 449.48
NVDA above 120 is bullish into 130,135
CVNA above 112 next is 115
Mu above 136 into 140 


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JUNE 12, 2024 AM

Live Trade Room open this afternoon from 2-3PM for FOMC and again at 4 - 5PM for a Macro 2 Micro w/ Sam & Craig.

MAG7 - gapped up - blue sky after yesterday where we closed strong - at the highs of day from a big rally.

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - back below 288; closed at lows yesterday on it's way to 275.

IWF:IWD - gapped up - blue sky after yesterday where we closed strong - at the highs of day from a big rally. Growth firmly in play.

INTERMARKET

T2100 - eh;

T2104 - still weak.

T2123 - still weak.

T2126 - bullish engulfing.

WTI CRUDE - above 79 daily; up more than 1% this morning.

GOLD (futures) - large expansion this morning. Up nearly 1% premarket. 2350 daily is an area of concern.

Nat Gas - rejected at daily resistance but still holding above 3.00 daily.

Bit Coin - after starting a bounce yesterday - followed through with a continued move higher over night and now near yesterdays open... still under 70k but testing 69.5k premarket.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - massive expansion lower - now below 104.50 premarket.

USDJPY - faded into 156 daily; still holding a range.

BONDS

TLT - strong gap up - close to 93 premarket (closed at 91.83). Resistance at 93.43 daily (call it 93.50). Digesting the 10-week.

TNX - Sam called 4.2% as her summer number - we are at 4.296% premarket. "markets" are bullish until this hits 4.2%.

ZN (10Y) -back above 110'11 after a strong rally; still has 110'21 resistance.

ZT (2Y) - back above 102'08 after a strong rally.

MOVE - still expecting this to roll over.

INDEX

NYSE - fell out of the wedge yesterday (daily chart wedge). 18,120 daily resistance held. Likely pushes up & trys to test that this morning.

SPX - Bullish at the open - paused as the morning wore on... expect to digest into 2PM. "markets" are bullish until TNX hits 4.2%.

DIA - nice gap up this morning premarket. 392 daily resistance.

SPY - ATH's this morning after the CPI data.

IWM - massive gap up this morning. Still under a significant resistance level daily.

QQQ - ATH's this morning after the CPI data. 444 & then 472 as an overshoot ... this was the call for the year ... and we are there already.

VIX - Below 12.50 daily. Still have 11.50 as a lower level of interest & then 10.60 weekly.

SVXY - testing 61.50 after a strong breakout this morning. Likely reverses back to the breakout point.

BXM - green; so don't short the market.

CHASE

AMZN - approaching 188 next is 190 above

CVNA above 112 next is 115

GOOGL above 179 we have 181, 183

IWM 207 resistance above that we have 210,212 on a complacent fed. if FED is hawkish and yield's spike 203.55 is next

MSFT 431 tagged and overshooting into next target at 436.4, 449.48

NVDA above 120 is bullish into 130,135

ORCL tagged and overshooting, stay above 132 prior high n remains bullish

SHOP above 64,20 can see 67-67.50

TREND

CCJ - protect. Could see 47 or even lower on weekly.

LLY - lots of selling activity yesterday as profit takers step it up

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AMD - upgrade from Edward Jones.

AAPL - great chase yesterday; still no reason to short this. Continues higher. Soon as we got above 199.62 Sam said "that's it - we are going to blue sky. Cheers

AFRM - a firm follow-through from earnings.

AVGO - looks good. 1440 is the breakout.

BABA - back to the 200-day.

CVNA - still bullish.

CAT - not convincing but it is bouncing. Get above 333.60 weekly but ... it needs a reason. Kinda stuck. Get above 335 for a better trigger.

CRSP - ding fine. a measured move comes into the 67 / 68 area.

CRM - looks weak; looks like it wants to break 238; if we break it then 230 is short PT. 230 is support.

CDNS - above the 55-day. doing fine. Forming a weekly "scoop" pattern.

DKNG - nice pop into resistance. 40.00 weekly likely digests there.

ENPH - nice job. 140 weekly resistance; congrats

FLR - doing great.

GOOGL - above 179 we have 181, 183

GME - Citron no longer short here.

GH - above the 55 & 200-day MA. Those still need to cross. Still looks great.

GLW - great; nice continuation. Looks Fine.

HD - have to get back above.

ITB - popping.

ISRG - looking great.

IPO - moved up but has not taken out the highs.

KRE - just a mess.

MSFT - bullish; H&S. Don't short blue sky's. Keep it above 433.66 hourly.

MCO - looks good. Doing better.

MREO - moving firmly. Stay above 3.75$.

MU - resistance level 3; that's resistance. $135.85 daily breakout point.

MGIC - peeking above the 200-day;

NET - still under 200-day; back to the 200-week. Busted Trend. Get above that 200-week or 76.00$.

NVDA - took a break to give flows to AAPL yesterday. Semi's were up in premarket before the CPI print w/ $MU and $TSM leading the group.

ORCL - keep it above 127.50 weekly. ATH's. Getting digestion.

PYPL - hurt from AAPL news. Still waiting to see if it can get above 70.50 weekly. Still ok above 64.00$ but will be better above 68.21 for a trigger higher. Got whacked.

PINS - continues. Nice Job.

RNA - massive pop. Alex had this in his channel early. It did great. tapped 38.00$ premarket. Hitting weekly bollinger band top so expect digestion there. Recommended at 15.00 -

REGN - still very bullish.

RKT - strong pop on falling yields. Still needs to close above

SHOP - trying to rise.

SLV - not breaking down. it's fine.

STX - 101.25 weekly breakout; bullish.

SBUX - tapped back down; hitting the

SHW - nice bounce.

SMLR - above the 200-day; small float. Sharp gap up into the Kelt weekly. Get & Stay above the 200-week. Red Hot.

TSM - pushing through w/ authority. Calls across the board.

TPH - "when we start to soften the 30Y" then this should start to work.

TAN - bullish due to lower yields.

UBER - looks good; Stay above 69.30. Better above 73 weekly as a trigger.

VRTX - doing fine.

XHB - strong pop hourly; very bullish. Back above the 55-day. Needs to stick.

XBI - back up to 91 area.

XRT - needs to take out prior highs...

XLE - falling below the 100MA. 200-day MA is short PT.

Z - popping above the 200-day MA.

Small Caps love from falling yields ...

IPO ' XRT ' XBI '


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.