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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
Bonds Bid (for now); Oil & Markets Are Not
June has started off with a bang for bonds.
Yields falling into key key key 4.33% on 10Y; bonds bid into/above 200D.
Now what they do from here really matters.
Oil short talked about for WEEKS has finally woken up! WTIC - 5.5%
Reasons noted repeatedly: structural demand weakness.
SEE BOB'S CHANNEL for this theme in play for WTIC, RBOB, ULSD... XLE, VLO, etc
Markets continue to chop sideways under SPX 5340 + 5200.
I really like cheap ATM puts 3 months out while chasing whatever moves + waiting on next sector rotation to trigger.
SLV made it back down/through 27.17 PT. likely continues into 10W near 26
XME + GDX falling with Oil + Yields.
USDJPY falling as USDMXN spikes higher and Indian stocks sell off hard.
Lots of FX moves that will, in time, bleed into equity volatility, but for now: waiting for NVDA to weaken as confirmation.
There is no volatility in the market with VVIX submerged and FED is volatility suppressing
Weak dollar is not helping commodities and yields have a bigger impact on commodities on growth worries
There is some net selling underneath
TNX 43.33 is support, needs to break that for continued bid in bonds
NVDA - big call selling for Jun 14th.
Bitcoin - still stable/proxies getting bid.
USOIL below 73.30 next is 70.21
WSM add time looks to be rolling over into 270, 243.50 gapfill
ANF below 169 next is 165.5
AVGO 1308 support, below that is 1270 (or the 100 day)
JD over 30, 35 comes back in play again
KWEB needs above 29.5 for 30.5, 32
TSLA below 174 opens up weakness to 166
NVDA starting to tire with the market needs below 1138 for 1118,1078
MSFT needs below 410.50 for weakness back to 407, 405
NFLX below 630 next is 625,620
XLE falling into 200D most likely before stabilization
XLF fading lower
VKTX breaking 57.56 at 100D - let's see if it gets defended here.
MNST staying below 52.66 wkly support is continuation bearish.
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JUNE 4, 2024 AM
Softness in the Indexes.
MAG7 - still hanging in there.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Still looking for 280 level. Continued pullback here should deliver a yield weakness.
INTERMARKET
T2104 - slightly red; not much. a little selling.
T2123 - still weakening.
WTI CRUDE - Significant Drop; Worked perfectly; cheers if you were carry short.
GOLD (futures) - Still stalled at daily resistance; holding above 2300
Nat Gas - stalled on daily; rejected 3.00$ area and has failed to retest that high. Still above $2.50
Bit Coin - Still fighting resistance around 69k area. 67k is support to break for a move lower.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - Daily showing a minor double bottom forming; Seems like 104 daily still holding as support. Tiny bounce.
USDJPY - GJB-10Y ... the BOJ suggested they may cut back on bond buying. the 10Y JGB fell back to 1.00% and the USDJPY is testing 155; daily support at 152.
BONDS
TLT - popped back into 92 in the premarket. Yesterday closed at the highs on a rally - so this pop is a continuation of that move. 92.50 daily resistance. Still a short term bond bull (even w/ the moves in the FX markets). Staying above the 200day will be a tough "ask" from the market.
TNX - after falling & closing at LOD - TNX fell lower in premarket. 4.2% still in focus (in time). Came back to the up-slopping 200-day MA.
ZN (10Y) - 4 green daily bars; 110 daily resistance in focus. Pushed into overhead TL.
ZT (2Y) - massive gap up over the last few days; June starting strong. Above 102 this morning. Still looking for higher
10/2 curve - on a weekly & on a daily. Really really been frustrating for those who do not have Sam's insight & depth. Still looking for deeper inversion ... -0.60%. It's back down to breaking down.
INDEX
NYSE - rallied off the LOD to close above the day's mid-point.
SPX - rallied off the LOD to close above the day's mid-point. 5340 was YTD price target - we have already hit that ... so now looking to get above that for bullish continuation. 5400 call wall. 5200 support. Looking for a Macro Trigger ... (FOMC..? NFP..? OPEX..?). 5292 is the level to get above for a cont move to test the 5340 highs & new highs. Markets are not 'bullish enough' - so expecting a choppy mess.
QQQ - did not hit gap fill (455.93 daily). It WILL fill. Eventually. No Doubt.
VIX - a little green.
CHASE
ANF below 169 next is 165.5
AVGO 1308 support, below that 1270 100 day
JD over 30, 35 comes back in play again
KWEB needs above 29.5 for 30.5, 32
WSM add time looks to be rolling over into 270, 243.50 gapfill
TLT pushing into 93
TNX 43.33 is support, needs to break that for continued bid in bonds
HONORABLE MENTIONS
China names still in play. (BABA, JD, PDD, BIDU).
APP - still looks good above 79.55
ANF - petered out; starting to roll over.
AVGO - tagged the 21-week MA. Breaking 1308 offers more weakness into the 100day MA (1270 area).
BP - hitting monthly resistance; sitting on 100-week.
BYND - forming a large base of bottom fishing.
COST - looks great
CCL - pushing; RCL - looking better. Stay above 16.40 daily.
COHR - tested weekly high - breakout didn't hold.
ENPH - at the 50-week resistance.
FSLR - solid pop is holding;
GLD - flat. Short term still expecting pullbacks. Long Term - still bullish.
GDX - 34.74 again.
GLW - like that one.
HIMS - doing the compounded drugs; supply constraints. Likely gets sued but still in play for now.
IP - nice push into digestion area.
JD - still making HL's.
KRE - weak.
KO - back near weekly highs; looks good again.
LLY - has a drug review coming up. They "could" miss on Alzheimer's drugs but their valuation is from their weightloss drugs
NVDA - still bullish; bearish below 1118 area. Holding up the market. 1140 calls wrote for JUNE 14, 2024.
NFLX - "if then" - if we break the 21-day then 605 is PT.
PFE - nice weekly reversal - holding well above 10/21 weekly MA's. Testing daily 200-day MA. Down Slopping 200-day MA. Put Selling ... short term this is bullish but will take time to flatten out the 200-day & move higher.
SLV - flat. Short term still expecting pullbacks. Long Term - still bullish. 27.17 hit. that was PT. Does not mean we are done going down ... but that was PT.
SPOT - got an analyst upgrade.
SLB - really hit. broke 44.33 weekly.
TAN - still a lot of work to do.
UNH - Meta care announcements (posted in swing slack channel).
URNM - getting hit; beauty.
VLO - could see the 200-day MA in time.
VKTX hold above 60.30
WMT - looks great
XME - careful of that stuff. Getting hit & hit hard.
XLE - 200-day in focus. Likely the last wave before it gets stabilized... has a little more to go.
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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/04/24