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Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 6/28/24

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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael

Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.

For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!


GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Rithika's Chase Summary

FROM SAM -
POTUS Debate was horrific and my December client post with my 2024 Predictions that Biden would not be on the November ballot appears closer to happening.
With that, we still have miles to go before pricing in a Trump win. Dems may stick with the horse they rode in on, or change it up, but all the while #RFK is picking up speed and with it only needs 32-40 electoral seats to force the House to choose. That's the definition of WILD CARD.
In the meantime, we have more urgent matters of state to address:
WEEKEND FRENCH ELECTIONS: If Macron wins, it is biz as usual, but if either far left or far right candidate wins, it will be drama in USD + Yields.
Also, MONDAY, the SCOTUS rules on Trump's immunity case, and judging from a slew of rulings released today, they will likely dismiss so Trump has clear path. But I have no bet on that horse, just announcing that news will be released on both shores that could cause excitement in dollar & yields.
Today, markets gapped up but when I closed my trading room at 10:30 I warned that I wouldn't be surprised if the high print would reverse + close the gap lower:
SPX 5523 breaks 5505 brings 5482. Aaaaand that is working.
QQQs just needed to get back below 485.90 to turn R/G.
Bonds are all over the place today. Patience.
USD still looks bid big picture - see my posted INTERMARKET REVIEW on dollar, yields, gold + bitcoin for more color ;-)
EOM/EOQ will bring shake-n-bake plus the JPM collar roll and de-risking ahead of weekend event risk and light trading next week as the busiest travel week of the year sees a shortened holiday week with markets closed Thursday and open 1/2 day Friday.
I will be gone Friday but Michael, Rithika & Archna will cover!!
Then,
We will get out our TOTW Monday, but we are sizing up UBER Swing Long
Toss up as select semis still haven't broken down.
For example, MRVL looking nice > 68 into 75/75 then 78 with AUG 75C for $2.50, but I must admit I do really like UBER... on $73.05 wkly trigger/close above using JULY 72.50C highlighted this morning already up 60%, but a financed call spread would be my preference: SEPT 67.50P SLD to finance SEP 72.50X80 CS BOT = $.50
Finally, the PT for short - term AMZN + TSLA trades really worked: 200 + 202.47 respectively. I warned to PROTECT here if you want to keep those juicy profits from the rec'd option tactics that were up A LOT as posted in Swing yday - even more today ;-)))
I am still bullish, but I FULLY expected + warned of this digestion.
1st Monday of July is typically bullish day but the above event risks may disrupt that trend.
Further, JULY is typically bullish Nasdaq, and as I have mentioned repeatedly last few months, I do not see big VIX move until we break the 11 handle - and wouldn't be surprised if we need to tag 10.60 before a bigger pullback in equities can take place.
As my INTERMARKET ANALYSIS title relayed: BULLISH COMPLACENCY AMIDST DIVERGENCES is still in play, so make hay while the sun shines!
And with that, I wish you a great weekend/week!!
Rithika chase summary notes:
AMZN 200 price target tagged, now digesting careful
SHOP 67.4 is resistance, above that could squeeze to 70,76
 MU below 135 we have 130
PANW 350 likely hits its head, good chase from 318
CVNA above 134 we have 138, 141 in time 148
PDD rolling down into 128 below 134
NVDA 125 pivot below that we have 116
TSLA 202 likely done today, 200 day test next week
BABA below 72 room to 70.5 ish
NOW 775-784 could find resistance, careful


Share Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Michael's Trading Room Summary

JUNE 28, 2024 AM

MAG7 - breakout yesterday; holding that close in the pre-market. At highs & still bullish. Extended. Still bullish - expecting another 10 points at least

Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - got "near" 288 but has pulled away from it this morning. Still above 275

IWF:IWD - gapped up pre-market. Still in range on daily / weekly. Still at highs & still bullish.

INTERMARKET

T2126 - could have a melt up; breaking into highs

WTI CRUDE - Broke above last weeks high - now above 82 daily. Still in a broader range but this is the third week green (assuming we can keep above 81 area into todays close). Always a bid in seasonality for this time of year.

GOLD (futures) - tested 2300 this week but still above it; Sam has 2222 posted in Slack Swing channel

Nat Gas -third week red; looks to close under 2.80. Nothing here.

Bit Coin - weak; tested 60k this week but is back above; looks like it will end the week above 61k but sideways overall daily.

FX

Dollar (DXY) - above 106 briefly ... now firmly under that and looks like it wants 105.50 today. Still Firm. 106.20 still the line in the sand.

USDJPY - new highs before smacking back down - still watching for intervention. JGB 10Y is still above 1%

BONDS

TLT - popped above 93.50 daily; gapped outside of yesterdays doji candle.

TNX - tested 4.3% before fading back; still sideways on daily. Still above 4.2%.

ZN (10Y) - higher on the day - sill range bound daily.

ZT (2Y) - higher on the day - sill range bound daily.

INDEX

NYSE - Broke above last weeks high but gave it back - still inside last weeks candle. Still chopping about sideways daily / weekly. Resting at round number 18000.

SPX - JPM roll expected today; questions rise about the direction on their roll... higher or lower ....

SPY - Evening Star reversal intraday - 458.50 is the trigger ... (Sam mis-spoke. I think she wanted to say 548.50... but I am guessing...)

IWM - large gap up this morning. resistance at 204 held - still ranged on weekly.

QQQ - JULY - typically the first week is bullish. breakout "just above" - extended. No surprise if we fade back to close gap.

VIX - expecting 11.00$.

SVXY - bullish.

CHASE

AMZN price target tagged, now digesting careful

BABA below 72 room to 70.5 ish

CVNA above 134 we have 138, 141

MU below 133 we have 130

NVDA 126 pivot for 129

NOW 775-784 could find resistance, careful

PANW 350 likely hits its head

PDD rolling down into 128 below 134

SHOP 67.4 is resistance, above that could squeeze

TSLA - climbing into the 200 day. above 202 pushing into 205, 208. 202 likely done today, 200 day test next week

HONORABLE MENTIONS

AMZN - someone still very bullish.

ADSK - stayed above key levels.

CRM - yup; nice bottom fishing into the 10W perfect. Hit's resistance here at 260 weekly. Could overshoot into 261.90 daily but think it's done for today. Keep it above 250.

CROX - NKE dropped this right back down into the 50MA

CVNA - 135 weekly PT & resistance; above we have 155 weekly. Great "everything" squeeze. does not look done.

CHWY - overshot to the 200-week before immediate selling. Firmly below 29.48... manipulated stock so don’t over-stay your welcome. Does not look good.

DDOG - working.

HIMS - too much risk; the long is gone - now at risk. Think it rolls over & goes lower below 20.00 weekly.

HUM - spiking +5%...

MDB - 248 PT. Great Job.

MELI - looks good- get above 1650 to go higher.

MRVL - get above trigger @ 75... 75.50 ... 76 area

MU - left an island. Had a bullish earnings but light guidance. Dip buying so far.

NKE - not doing well; taking out 78.80. They need saving.

NOW - at trendline - expect digestion. EOW flows. Get above 784.33 weekly to keep going.

PLTR - hold above 25.20 daily. Noise today. Anything above 25.20 is good to go.

PDD - 128 PT.

PANW - plenty to work on here; hold if long. Stunning. Anything above 318 weekly... it's at 345 & still going ... 350.60 resistance weekly.

QCOM - bounced on 55-day MA. Needs to prove it. Bounced on top of weekly KELT top.

RIVN - short into 13.64 & it held; they are still going to .. it's still bullish.

RXT - 3.10 weekly resistance.

SNOW - continues. Above the 21-day. Going to have a tough time at 140 area ... it's working.

SHOP - needs 67.36 - has not triggered. If it goes above 68 it likely goes to 74.00$

SNAP - had a lot of calls this week but has calmed down.

$T - rising; weekly breakout above 18.00 consolidation level;

TSLA - 206.77 PT. Still like it. Great way to play options - strong. Most bullish action - hot. 202.47 hourly resistance. likely hits 208.90 weekly & comes back down. "Risk Reversal" trade worked well ... cost a 0.10¢ to put it on & it's now 8.00$.

UBER - has not triggered; like it though.

VZ - likely follows $T next. Stay above 38.38$

XLE - bullish bet for the rotation "less fossil - more green energy"

ZIM - great scoop pattern - coming back to 23.


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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Recorded Live Trading Room
Every trading day, Samantha runs a Live Trading Room from 9 - 11 am ET for CLUB/EDGE clients - complete with custom engagement, option analysis, macro event risks and market moving news. She captures the move before it happens & sets up the trade for clients across CHASE, SWING & TREND timeframes. CATCH HER RECORDINGS HERE ON SUBSTACK - posted by 2pm ET - except Fridays when she reviews ALL OPEN/CLOSED trades in her portfolios for CLUB/EDGE clients.