Your LIVE TRADING ROOM options:
1. For LIVE real-time & custom engagement: Join our CLUB membership for $350. Includes Samantha’s Swing/Trend portfolios/alerts & all macro-to-micro contributors/trades & all posted analysis/education/Tradytics option flow!!
2. For VIEW-ONLY real-time: Join our COMMUNITY membership for $125. Includes live stage moderators & Samantha's intraday/multi-day Chases & market thoughts!
3. For RECORDING & summary notes: (soon) Join PRO in Substack for $95. Includes the full recording of Samantha's live trading room each daily with summary notes.
#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
THE WAITING GAME
No big economic data out UNTIL Yellen's QRA later today; and yet, little surprise is expected. With FOMC Wed, Non Farm Payrolls Friday, and big earnings Tues (MSFT, AMD) and Thurs (AAPL, AMZN), this week really is the waiting game.Monday Megacap bounce not going anywhere fast, and yet, my GROWTH:VALUE ratio did tag my 1.95 area and is in the process of digesting before higher probability bounce play that sticks.
Not likely if USD holds 104.50 and 10Y continues to fail 4.2%
But my baseline is still QQQ 449 & SPX 5376 for the recent pullback place of PTs + short covering/profit taking. I also gave SPY bounce into 548 last week then retrace down to 535 once 542 breaks. We are digesting there and need a macro trigger to move it either way.
We are still in negative dealer gamma so #STR is in play until stocks can get/stay above their 8D.
I still see 4.0% on the US 10Y yield - THIS SUMMER - but I can also see Geoffrey's strong point/proof that gov spending induced inflation will keep yields bid into EOY.
I also see the pushback on Fed cutting, but given FOMC is Wed, a confirmation of the Sept rate cut (currently at 100% odds) would likely continue to bid bonds if they do talk accommodation and continue to steepen the already large steepener in the 10Y2Y that started June 26th.
OIL VOLATILITY... OVX ... looks well bid since mid-June and is now really pushing higher - into 200D. That is my other tell that US Yields + Oil look ready to dump.
Crude breaking 75.65 matters. So does RBOB 2.37.
Bitcoin conference is finished and most likely the bounce with it.
Above 70K that holds, and I flip bullish. Until then, I'm not.
Uranium headed lower as warned past few weeks - after copper, steel, etc.
Long-time Trend Long CCJ reports this week.
Take care now with precious metals. They typically follow industrials.
CHASES:
TSLA into 8D at 232 then watch for rejection back to 228. (Next break of 226 should bring 213 into 205 area near 200D.
MCD was a great push into 263. Needs to stay above to swing long 271 in time.
WMT looks ready to digest its very bullish trend - think COST profit taking at ATH.
A decent rollover at the 21D brings 69 trigger for 67.57 area.
MSTR had a perfect rejection candle at 1815 daily resistance thru 1785, 1735 now forming bearish harami on daily at 8D. Below 1657 brings 1490 in time.
SWINGS:
GH popped up and is digesting really well at 100W.
ANF still looks good short < 172.87 wkly breakdown support, now 151.46.
PDD has continued to rollover on every bounce - not thru 200D into my 126.75 PTHousekeeping:
I will have my INTERMARKET REVIEW tomorrow.
FED DAY brings 3 sessions: 9-11 AM, 2-3 PM and 4-5 with Craig.Rithika chase summary notes:
TSLA above 226 can see 230, 235 stop: 224
DXY above 104.5 is bearish for sliver, gold
PDD 126 tagged, next is 120, 118 below 128
QQQ 465.7 is the pivot, above we have 468,470
WDC pushing down into 66.20, 64.30
LLY trend-line bounce above 820 into 827, 841 stop: 817
VLO stays below 156 then we approach 154, 152 again
ON above 77 has room to 81.2
IWM breaks below 222 then it could come down to fill gap at 220.70
AAPL holds below 217 we push to 216, 213
Net selling starting to creep in
MRNA below 120 down to 117, 115.8
CVNA below 130 into 120.67, 115 stop: 135
MRK starts to get above 126.5 can push to 128, 130
Michael's Trading Room Summary
JULY 29, 2024 AM
MAG7 - popped up premarket but still inside Thursdays' range. Still above the 100-day MA but below the 10, 20 & 50-day MA's. 131 PT but not ready to go yet.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - briefly above 275 last week - but closed the week under that level. 262 is the next lower level.
IWF:IWD - 1.95 was Sam's PT & we closed under that Friday - so that PT has been taken out. Cheers for that. Now what...? We are still above the 200-day MA but are firm under the others (10, 20, 50, & 100 day MA's). MACD daily under the zero line w/ primary & secondary signals bearish. Seeing a little pop up this morning.
INTERMARKET
T2104 - still pushing higher but intraday we are getting some selling.
WTI CRUDE - fell into 76 area daily support last week; ranged between 76 & 78.50 daily. Round number 80.00$ is a half-back level of concern over-head.
GOLD (futures) - fighting the 2400 area daily; tested it this morning and fell back away from it. Wide sideways range weekly from 2280 area to 2440 area & on the weekly we've seen HH's get sold. Credit Spreads still compressed.
Nat Gas - still above 2.00$ but that's about all there is to say about it.
Bit Coin - up +2% - looking like it wants to test 70k (was at 69.7k in premarket trading). Proxies are making some moves as well (RIOT, MARA, HUT, HIVE, COIN, MSTR, HOOD). Potential 70k ... still in play.
FX
Dollar (DXY) - big moves this morning - above 104.50 and breakout above last weeks high. Hard to see the IWF:IWD bounce if this is driving higher above 104.50$.
USDJPY - 153 daily seems to be holding as support; 152 support.
BONDS
TLT - under the 50-week still. Above 92 weekly. Holding & digesting while the 10Y
TNX - still see 4.0% - everyone but Sam got sucked in - she thought it would go lower and it did. Still looking for 4%
2/10 - breaking out w/ invert sticking.
INDEX
NYSE - Weekly "Wedge" breakout on the upside again last week - this time it stuck & we closed above the breakout level on Friday. 18.6K now is a minor resistance we need to get above.
SPX - "One More High is likely before we roll over"
SPY - "One More High is likely before we roll over" - 547 is the 8-day. $535 "in time" ... stay below 548.
IWM - a little weakness intraday.
DIA - hold above 400.
QQQ - "One More High is likely before we roll over" - bounce in play before a more durable short term bottom is in play... to time a move into higher gaps left from the July 10th pullback. QQQ - 468 short term PT but it's still rolling over & still have 449 PT (short). breaking 460 offer 455 and then 449 with 447 as a 30-week overshoot of that 449.
CHASE
DXY above 104.5 is bearish for sliver, gold. careful
IWM 225 tagged, now must establish a base here for 227,229
LLY trendline bounce above 820 into 827, 841 stop: 817
PDD 126 tagged, next is 120, 118 below 128
QQQ 465.7 is the pivot, above we have 468,470
TSLA above 226 can see 230, 235 stop: 224
WDC pushing down into 66.20, 64.30
SWING
Called out Friday - …
XLV plays - GILD, ABBV, AMGN, UNH looking great. (HUM has EPS 7/31 + could follow. (CNC started Friday).
Fave XAR plays of RTX, LMT, GD now NOC - very strong.
Fave BioPharma plays long of VKTX, VRNA, GH - doing well
Fave "Warm Summer Housing Market" plays long - LC, RKT, TPH, XHB, JOE, COOP - still fab. Even VNO starting to trigger > 29.46.
SAFETY STILL PAYING: XAR, XLP, XLV, XLU, GDX
TREND
Called out Friday - …
Fave TREND long faves: ICE, SHW, BRKB now HIG, BKR, CARR
COST, ANF, WCN big topping patterns on Wkly
MMM, BMY, CHTR, MHK big bottom fishing patterns on Wkly from earnings, but even before EPS
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Sector Outperformance continues in: Homebuilders, Mortgage, Insurance, Defense, Contractors, HealthCare, Staples, Utilities
New 52-week highs: Lot's of stuff that doesn't look like NYFANG - banks, healthcare, biotech, aerospace & defense, consumer goods ... Bit Coin proxies are bullish & the momentum for them is the BTC getting into 70K. Markets still showing distribution under the surface.
AMD - 144.40 is the level to get above; strong relation with 3-day MA. Looks like an oversold bounce. AMD - get above 144.40
AAPL - still softening ... earnings
ANF - 172.80 weekly resistance held. Stay below 173 for a move into 140 area. ANF - short needs to break $151 support.
ARM - costly. H&S possible but earnings on deck.
AMZN - bounce into the 8-day. Have to get / stay above the 8-day MA. Gap fill 192.24. Earnings on deck ...
ABT - 100.00$ support.
BABA - gapping higher - (?) unsure why. Jefferies upgraded this and gave it some juice. Sam said "Short the rip"
CVNA bears coming in.
COST - came back in. Should help the WMT longs get some vertigo.
CHTR - down slopping 200-day MA.
CCJ - protect. wont' move easy above 56 weekly (the 2007 high). Tagged 45 weekly... will be productive above that 56 weekly high but it has a long way to go before we get into that.
DIS - 89.30 & then a bounce.
DELL - still weak
EBAY - higher on the 10/21 weekly which is funny.
GLD - choppy w/ a rising DXY
GH - into the 100-week MA resistance. Pressing the bands on daily. 38.50 hourly was hit premarket today.
GOOGL - nice bounce into the 3-day. 168 daily support.
IRM - amazing.
KWEB - weak.
KRE - push back at 60 area
MCD - missed earnings. sticking the 200-week & not going anywhere. MCD - hold 258 weekly support - 263 PT weekly & above that is productive for more (higher). Outside (below) the weekly channel - it's a ugly nasty channel but still need to get back inside it. MCD - above 263 is better
MSFT - 435 positioning showing up.417 really nice low. Bouncing into 8-day MA.
MSTR - bid on breakout. 1785 weekly has to break & it needs to really come back in for a nicer short. 1734.70 may be a better number.
MMM - 127.33 weekly resistance. massive breakout on earnings from 101 to 127 weekly. Above all the weekly monthly MA's ... digest 127 to 120.
MRNA - bearish under weekly 130. Going into a Squeeze (not fully formed yet). Short under 116 daily with the 200-day MA as a probable PT. above 129 would be an upside squeeze.
META - under the 55-day MA. Bounced on 30-week. 10/21 rolling over.
MRK - worth watching... but nothing yet.
NVDA - intraday bounce but selling coming in after sam said she didn't trust the semi bounce.
OPEN - higher w/ a sideways 200-day MA.
ON - down slopping 200-day MA. Popped above the 200-day but it's choppy.
PDD - broke the 200-day ... 126.75 short PT. PDD - stay below the 200 day.
PG - at highs - earnings on deck.
SLV - choppy w/ a rising DXY
SWK - earnings on deck; take care.
TSLA - Get above 232. $MS upgraded TSLA w/ a PT to 310
WDC - has not broken completely.
WMT - likely it pulls back. (maybe this week). Look for softness into the 10W.
Before you leave!
Please remember I have a great team you are helping to support.
If you enjoyed this analysis, let us know!
Hit Like!
Share with friends and colleagues!
Share this post