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#trading-room-summaries by Rithika & Michael
Greetings. We are two of Samantha’s Live Trading Room Moderators. Rithika focuses on the the chase action for intraday moves. Michael captures a summary of all ideas & trades across all timeframes - chase, swing & trend. We both make best efforts to cover her trade set ups as well as those requested by clients in the room.
For best results, listen yourself. Or better yet, join us live!
Rithika's Chase Summary
From Sam:
Is Market Safe? In a Word: No.
Warned of Liquidation Risk Friday morning July 2nd.
Monday happened.
One week later: SPX is trading back to where I left you before vacation!
That's called REFLEXIVITY.
But BOND CONVEXITY is what caused the equity selling and bond convexity is still VERY sensitive to changes in interest rates, and as such, equity market will be VERY sensitive to exposure to interest rate changes. Higher yields can help; lower will actually hurt.
Watch Banks. We lose banks. We loose tech, again.
SPX 4745 is where I expect we close below this year.
SPX 4300 is where I expect we tag this year.
For now, SPX just gave back 10% in 14 trading days - bouncing exactly off the 10M EMA. VIX had its 3rd largest move evah, and does not look done this year. Translation: I wouldn't be surprised we revisit that 65 pre-market VIX handle in the coming months.
Fresh eyes market this morning - having been away from my charts, and I can say most charts are a hot mess!! BIG reflexive bounces off key support areas, but nothing really safe long or short as we chop about.
SVXY went all the way back to NOV 1st Fed Pause & Yellen Yahtzee - when SPX was trading $4300.
USD is still weak with commodities.
Gold held up but Silver did not.
Oil is bouncing with markets but I trust it as far as I can throw it.
Next break of $70 crude oil on monthly and we will flash crash down in both oil + yields.
Yen is digesting, likely for weeks, after a ginormous rally that looks like a solid trend reversal in process.
Bonds (especially 10Y + 2Y futures notes) look like a big short-covering, forcing them into dis-inversion, but not really. It didn't hold.
But oh my my my, all of the yield curve is a mess - from 13W to 30Y - all broken.
10Y yield tagged major major major support at 3.8% YEARLY, overshot to 30M EMA at 3.67, and bounced forcefully with markets, but the fact it GAPPED DOWN on monthly < 4.09 to open below 4.05 and the fact it is even testing YEARLY support is bearish big picture.
Remember, this is the level I gave for the summer - "3.8% overshoot".
We cannot break below that or the narrative will immediately flip from INFLATION TO DEFLATION.
Long story short: geopolitical, election + Middle East conflict and earnings aside, the charts are a HOT MESS and need time to repair.
So that translates to needing a macro trigger to go long!
NDX is still not safe given we are one macro trigger away (and no NOT CPI Thursday) from HYOAS triggering/getting/staying > 4.06.
This will trigger RECESSION RISK pulled forward.
I will put my INTERMARKET ANALYSIS charts together - some I highlighted premarket - for a thorough review tomorrow, but these are my initial big picture thoughts so far:
NEXT: WATCHING FOR OIL WEAKNESS AS A TELL
YIELDS WILL FOLLOW OIL
VIX NOT DONE = SELLING NOT DONE
BROKEN CHARTS = BROKEN TRENDS
BOND CONVEXITY = MARKET RISKRithika chase summary notes:
SPX pushing to 5375 then sam thinks it taps out, over that we have 5410 if it wants to overshoot
WMT 68 tagged, above can bounce needs below 67 to retrigger a short
AAPL 217 tagged, 217.71 is the gapfill; AAPL above 218 next is 220.2
LLY below 890 we have 870, above 890 we push up to 915
NVDA 106.47 is pivot; if it cant hold here we move back down to 96 above 107 we have 110, 113
VIX needs to get below 19 to be bullish the market
GOOGL rejecting its gap at 164.67; needs above to make it to 167 no buying seen so far under 163 it comes back to 160
SMCI 554 resistance, 583 if it gets squeezed further
BABA 81 is a key resistance level, to be bullish has to break and hold over
MSFT holds over 407 we push to 410,412
DDOG below 112 we come down to 110,108
Sam's volatility indicator still suggests the selling is done yet we havent rolled over as one would expect for a bottom could roll over in the weeks ahead
Michael's Trading Room Summary
AUG 12, 2024 AM
Spot Gamma: We anticipate a relatively tighter trading range today (<1% market move), as today is the last day of "free play" for 0DTE traders. Starting Tuesday, every day this week carries a significant data point which carries a vol premium. For today, 5,300 is support, with resistance at 5,375 & 5,400.
Looking for OAS spreads to continue ... looking for VIX to continue. OIL and GOLD have not rolled over - those two are what Sam is watching closely... if they give up the markets are going to give up. Lower yields across the curve is what it looks like to Sam.
MAG7 - Selling since JULY 10 ... turned higher Aug 5 ... Daily MACD still below zero & still has not crossed. Looks like it wants to test the 10(D) MA today from below. Under the 20 & 50 MA's as well.
Weighted Dollar / Yields Ratio - Bounced back above 250; this tool has been moving WITH THE MARKETS rather than against them (like is usually does) so still watching for bifurcation.
IWF:IWD - Selling since JULY 10 ... turned higher Aug 5 ... Daily MACD starting to turn higher & cross (the MACD line & the signal line) ... still under the zero line.
INTERMARKET
T2100 - still in trend.
T2104 - Bounced on 100-day MA. Not convincing.
T2123 - oh my ... back in weekly bollinger bands. Careful ... still falling. Still selling under the surface but has not broken trend. "just starting to sell" under the surface.
T2126 - still in trend.
WTI CRUDE - 79.11 resistance daily. Up 1% this morning. A demand dump expected & a roll-over expected (not today). 75 support area - no excitement.
GOLD (futures) - 2450 daily resistance - up a 0.50% this morning in premarket trading. Chopping sideways within a wide range.
Nat Gas - up more than 3.5% this morning ; broke above key level (2.30$ daily) .... last week closed strong but all of this looks like a relief bounce at this point.
Bit Coin - wide range daily / weekly ... up on the day but really just sitting in the chop. Not Safe - no Energy
FX
Dollar (DXY) - still under 103.50 daily. sideways daily. Recovered back above 103 last week after dropping under 102.50.
USDJPY - daily 148 still acting as significant resistance. Hit 142 last week before bouncing back & stalling out. above 149 offers 152 ... but looks like down is more likely.
BONDS
TLT - gapped up last week but never hit 100- faded back under 97 ... basing above the 10(W)
FXY - still elevated even after it was rejected. Don't think the yen is done going up
TNX - gapped down into 3.66% last week before popping back above 4.0% ... now back under 4.0% and chopping sideways. Has to get above 4% weekly if we want to move higher.
ZN (10Y) - just under 113 daily and developing a "scooping" pattern on daily (or a deep "bull flag" pattern).
ZT (2Y) - nearly hit 104 last week before falling away.... close to 103 in premarket.
INDEX
NYSE - still in trend.
SPX - 5700 to 5139 was a nice move but 4300 still the label on the table. 5376 daily level is the mark to get above. 55-day MA resistance above that. SPX - 5375 likely where we crap out; above that we could hit 5410
SPY - still has not broken trend. Not "safe" - don't see the buying.
IWM - get above 207 area daily... above that 210.80 daily. (206 hourly for 208 hourly PT).
QQQ - 450.50 hourly digestion. 449 daily support & chop zone.
VIX - back to the 21-day MA. 19.29 is the level of concern. Above is "bad for markets" and below is "supportive of the markets" ... VIX is still elevated. Below 19.29 is further support of the broader market moving higher.
BXM - "not done" - bounced back up into the Friday before the dump.
SVXY - wiped out 100% of the rally in the volmageddon 2.0 move last week. "So broken"
CHASE
AAPL 217 tagged, 217.71 is the gapfill
BABA 81 is a key resistance level, to be bullish has to break and hold over
DXY 102.67 line in the sand we break it we come down to 101
GOOGL rejecting its gap at 164.67; needs above to make it to 167 no buying seen so far under 163 it comes back to 160
LLY below 890 we have 870, above 890 we push up to 915
NVDA 106.47 is pivot; if it cant hold here we move back down to 96 above 107 we have 110, 113 | NVDA 111 tagging next 113, 115
SPX pushing to 5375 then sam thinks it taps out, over that we have 5410
SPY 531 pivot; monday morning jitters bullish if it holds the breakout bearish if it breaks down
SMCI 554 resistance, 583 if it gets squeezed further
VIX needs to get below 19 to be bullish the market
WMT 68 tagged, above can bounce needs below to retrigger a short
HONORABLE MENTIONS
AAPL - Still needs time. Almost filled $217.71 daily gap fill. Stay above 216 weekly. | AAPL above 218 next is 220.2
AMD - oversold bounce. Keep it above 128 weekly or 131 daily.
BABA - blah.
COIN - nothing good
COST - 863 daily is the level to get above or it's a great short
LLY - 856 weekly needs to break for a move into 800. Stay above 885 for a move into 915. Sharply defended.
GOOGL- 164.76 weekly is the level to get through for a move into 169.55 PT.
GOLD (Barracks) - earnings. no edge. Looks fine.
GDX - eh.
HD - earning on the table. No edge. 50/50 ...
KRE - nothing good. 54.50 bull / bear level.
MS - looks nasty. In distribution.
MSFT - the 390 short PT hit. Cheers if you had that.
MSTR - bounced on 200-day MA. 10/21 weekly rolling over. Evening Star reversal weekly
MU - still under the 200-day ... great place for a bounce at that 87.25 ... still looks really weak. a mess. 107 bounce PT but shouldn't get above that easily. (so a bounce into resistance before rolling over for more). Oversold bounce.
NVDA - 106.50 hourly resistance... Above that we have 110 hourly PT or 112 weekly fib. Still under the 55-day MA. Breaking 106.50 offers 97.40. 21-day MA coming into view. Buying the dip & running it into earnings. Stay above 106.50 daily then 115 area as PT ... still busted & thats the problem.
QCOM - nothing here that is looking good for a long. 153 / 173 daily channel of digestion. terrible.
SMCI - getting a little squeeze.
SMH - trying to come back in. Get above weekly $231.50 but still broken.
VKTX - trying. Needs a buyer or a partner.
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