Risk Off Continues
My star Intermarket analysis chart of Weighted Dollar / Yield Ratio Chart is above 300 - which is all I need for for my continued SWING SHORT thesis to work.
Today, it did nothing but rise back above 325, which is market bearish.
I said early in my live trading room that if SPX falls -.65%, it can double that. Yup, that worked. Now at -1.40% on the day.
QQQ just needed to break/stay below 355. It did. It's down 2.5% on way to my swing short PT of $348.50.
VIX held 18.70 like a champ (posted level Monday).
What also worked was the GOOGL short rec'd yday as "earnings lotto" in #swing-ideas as I think it will continue lower.
Also in the trading room, I suggested the MSFT fade at exactly $345.71 wkly resistance.
META swing short rec'd Oct 13th has worked well into earnings. I like keeping half through EPS tonight. Given my thesis for GOOGL and the slowing cloud spend, I like the play for META weakness.
AMZN swing short rec'd Sept 19th has worked well into earnings. Ditto with above: keeping 30% through EPS Thursday night. Even if retail beats, I doubt AWS will.
Oil was fading before the headline risk caused a support bounce of WTIC $83. Staying short from last week: XLE swing short as well as USDCAD long. Both working.
Nat Gas shockingly didn't sell off hard but so far looks like a shallow pullback before a spike higher.
Gold is still digesting. I do not trust bitcoin here.
USDJPY is about to make a big move. JGBs are still moving higher: "If 80 then 100" still in play.
Dollar (DXY) is bullish so broader market is not - as long as it stays above 105.77$ weekly.
TNX - gyrating around 4.9% is the level to watch. The longer it stays here, the more bullish. But as I said RISK OFF > 4.7% has proven spot on.
TLT - Still bearish on Monthly, Weekly, Daily...
$82.50 still the minor support with 80.50 to 81.23$ as the stronger 2009 support.
Swings that continue to perform well short:
XHB - could see a bounce at 68$ daily and IWM may bounce at $63 area, but both continue to work past two months, as do EWG, NVDA, and XLE shorts all working well.
REMINDER: Craig and I are doing a Macro-To-Micro Power Hour TODAY at 4PM.
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