Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc

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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
"Q: What do you like if rates plunge over the next few years?"

"Q: What do you like if rates plunge over the next few years?"

Samantha LaDuc's avatar
Samantha LaDuc
Jul 23, 2025
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Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
Macro-to-Micro by Samantha LaDuc
"Q: What do you like if rates plunge over the next few years?"
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Non-Concensus Am I

I am still not expecting falling yields < 3.9-3.6% in 10Y without recession OR a massive growth buildout FROM devaluation of the dollar that doesn't accompany massive inflation. One is much easier for me to see than the other.

But should the MARKET want to price in lower yields NOW on expectation of AI productivity & fiscal spending & trade deals & Fed irrelevence… that result in US investment buildout while devaluing dollar and keeping UST longer-duration term premia flat... then the biggest sectors to benefit from lower yields (beyond big tech) are biotech & homebuilders - and small caps/equal-weight stocks (RSP:SPY) plays will have a resurgence, and potentially some of the 43% of the zombies in the Russell 2000 might actually survive.

But the easiest, low-hanging fruit can be picked from:

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