Protection Warning Paid
But QQQ Has Not Hit My Short Target, Yet
“Any Macro Event Risk That Interrupts These Bullish Flows”
The Biggest Risk To Bulls & Bears Is Fed Chair Warsh
But QQQ Has Not Hit My Short Target, Yet
Trillions in market cap have been wiped off the board since my tippy-top call last Monday June 1st. Repeatedly LIVE I said IGV (software ETF) and EWY (South Korean ETF) would roll-over. Then SMH (semi ETF) joined Wed.
LaDucTrading clients were warned & positioned ahead of the historic market selling Friday - that continued into this week.
I posted a detailed warning on the coming “dispersion unwind” which I warned could be threatened by a “yen freefall” after that.
I warned “Iran Risk Is Not Priced In” as well. So I weaved together the macro, quant and technical backdrop to warn:
“The Trade: Protection”
The result?
The Korean stock market pullback proved well-timed. The 3x long leveraged South Korea ETF, KORU, crashed -50% last week.
And for US markets... I gave $722 with overshoot to $709 in QQQ as short targets “by Tuesday at the latest” - but market had other ideas. Early in the session Friday, I predicted we would have the first 3% drawdown since 2025.
PROTECTION WARNING PAID! - see my live call from my live trading room Friday
As markets tend to overshoot, Nasdaq ended up falling 4.8% - a 1450 point drop which happened to be the Nasdaq’s largest point drop ever.
No AI system called that.
A human’s trader instincts did.
For clients in my live trading room or PRO Substack, that made all the difference between protecting longs & chasing short for outsized gains.
“One of the most masterful calls I’ve ever witnessed, just absolutely incredible”
Luke T
“Any Macro Event Risk That Interrupts These Bullish Flows”
That’s what I said, and we had SO MANY incoming. But this isn’t about NFP “beating” and pricing out rate cuts, or CPI jumping into the 4s while wage inflation falls, or PPI surging with rate hike odds, or even nervouseness about the overpriced/overhyped SpaceX IPO. And it isn’t even about oil inventories soon to shock and a predicted Iran War escalation by Trump & Netanyahu.
It’s always about narrative and the chase that turns parabolic THAT TRAPS LONGS - especially option call chasing that NEEDS oxygen (more buying) to add fuel to the fire. Without it, a mechanical rally cannot afford to stall - as warned last month.
I’m not sure how many times I have written “FLOWS OVER FUNDAMENTALS” in the past two months.
They didn’t put the “Hype” in “Hyperscalers” for nothin’.
Moving on…
With SpaceX pricing after hours today - and Morningstar valuing it at half of its IPO price of $135…
And ORCL selling off post earnings last night - because the company is consuming capital at a rate the exceeds operating cash flow by a wide margin and data center buildout that will take at least 2-3 yrs to generate ROI…
And ahead of weekend geopolitical risk, BOJ and FOMC… we are getting closer to my QQQ short target & my macro risks of size into summer:
